Fedgolfer's Account Talk

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coolhand said:
This is going to be interesting watching to see if your interpretation of the market plays out.

With the amount of distibution we've seen, I'd think da boyz would want a better entry point than 60 or so SPX points.
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I could see that playing out too. Exxon and oil have been pretty good indicators in short term too... and Xom looks like it wants to go down and hit $70... that may be about 60 pts below where we are on the spx. Good thing is, is that XOM will find support and it will look like gap fill support... probably some gap in the s&p somewhere in there too. I just think so many have been scared out that the big boyz wouldn't be that generous in giving people the chance to buy low... they don't give sale prices so easily.
 
Anyone think the head & shoulders will form and then fake out again like late June and early July? I think if a right shoulder forms, it will definitely happen again.

That gap up this AM could be a good area to start jumping in again if we see resistance on the top of the right shoulder (1075-1080'ish on the s&p). In late june we saw a five day uptrend to form the shoulder only to reverse and then reverse again as a bear trap. If it falls to 1019 and 1030 area that will be a gift from gods to the traders. If that happens again i'm sure the upswing will be as extended 7/13-8/7 timeframe.

The only thing i'm on the fence again is that we just saw two maybe even three if you count intraday bear traps play out on 10/30 & 11/2. Maybe so many went short or hopped out that we'll bust through the right shoulder and we're currently in the beginning of a large breakout upswing? The only reason i'm putting it out there is because those are the bullish arguements for managing Nov IFTs... and if we get shaken out by mid-Nov with no more buy-ins, we could be missing a huge run-up.

And its already looking like the recent downtrend was set off by a Dick Bove catalyst and then fear-mongering by politicians for Nov elections. That was DEFINITELY a play by the big boyz... gotta give 'em credit, it was a good one that had us all on the edge of our chairs.
 
Hello Fedgolfer,

If i remember correctly 1100 was resistence on the S&P. My thoughts are the same. If 1100 is broken then we move up. I have some in the market right now. But will use my 2 Nov IFT's for a break above 1100 if we get there. JMO

Steve
 
fedgolfer said:
Anyone think the head & shoulders will form and then fake out again like late June and early July? I think if a right shoulder forms, it will definitely happen again.

That gap up this AM could be a good area to start jumping in again if we see resistance on the top of the right shoulder (1075-1080'ish on the s&p). In late june we saw a five day uptrend to form the shoulder only to reverse and then reverse again as a bear trap. If it falls to 1019 and 1030 area that will be a gift from gods to the traders. If that happens again i'm sure the upswing will be as extended 7/13-8/7 timeframe.

The only thing i'm on the fence again is that we just saw two maybe even three if you count intraday bear traps play out on 10/30 & 11/2. Maybe so many went short or hopped out that we'll bust through the right shoulder and we're currently in the beginning of a large breakout upswing? The only reason i'm putting it out there is because those are the bullish arguements for managing Nov IFTs... and if we get shaken out by mid-Nov with no more buy-ins, we could be missing a huge run-up.

And its already looking like the recent downtrend was set off by a Dick Bove catalyst and then fear-mongering by politicians for Nov elections. That was DEFINITELY a play by the big boyz... gotta give 'em credit, it was a good one that had us all on the edge of our chairs.
Click to expand...

I am certainly open to a breakout on the upside. I think we take at least one more poke down first though. Could be this afternoon after the FOMC announcement?

The SS seems to be setting up for a buy. It's the timing that's tough though. Trader's Talk has been bulled up the past two days with lot's of longs and few shorts. That's not good, but the bulllishness not universal.
 
coolhand said:
I am certainly open to a breakout on the upside. I think we take at least one more poke down first though. Could be this afternoon after the FOMC announcement?

The SS seems to be setting up for a buy. It's the timing that's tough though. Trader's Talk has been bulled up the past two days with lot's of longs and few shorts. That's not good, but the bulllishness not universal.
Click to expand...

QQQQs are putting in a nice inverted H&S that if it fullfills, may put in a measured bull move to its previous high about 10 days ago (looks pretty symetrical from trough to top). $tran though doesn't seem so obvious, guess we'll have to keep a close eye on the $ and other indicators to see if we top out on a right shoulder in the s&p for a trade. If I were long though (a la Birchtree) its not even a move worth playing with only 2 ifts... maybe?!
 
No, we go up for another several days -1072 -1093. See analysis in my thread. There is always a chance of a grand fake-out and we throw out Elliot wave theroy and keep on going up. EWT at the moment indicates a ABC countertrend rally, and we should be in B (How is that for a tongue twister).One step at a time.
 
Way too many people are spotting the H&S in the s&p... although a right shoulder may form and odds are it will... there is NO WAY a large measured bear channel will form to call it a breakdown reversal. Too many are going to act on the the fallout/dip out of the H&S pattern that it will quickly reverse as it did in July. There is no way that that many people can be right. This bull has bucked the obvious pattern every single time.
 
We are on the one way ramp up rally - this run will continue to a solid year end rally going into Christmas. The shoppers are already out.
 
UUP and UDN trade pretty opposite one another almost tick for tick, most of the time. UUP however is one huge volume spikes the past two 30-min candlesticks... while UDN is trading "normally" (it's up and the markets are up). Normally, if UUP acts like this it shoots the dollar up and tanks the markets. It's weird, that' not happening.

Is this big boyz walking up UUP to exit an overweight position OR is this anticipation for the markets pulling a quick 180 degree reversal? It looks odd, lemme know.

Where are the currency experts? Frixxx, need ya ASAP.
 
From an american citizens' pt of view, yes, an increase in unemployment is bad for our fellow countrymen and neighbors. BUT, from an investors' pt of view, this opportunity is ripe for the picking. Retail investors blinded by political/personal vitriol are going to sell this, but investors will buy it up... they know the rate of bleeding is slowing in a time where economic growth has gone from a flat-lined patient to one with strong signs of life. Investors view a portion of the 10.2% unemployed as future growth once these cash rich (via equity bubble) companies re-hire... and they will.

This is global, not just our problem and every central bank and it's resources INCLUDING the worlds best companies are all aligned to see this through... the growth and future of this machine will far outweigh the negeativity and blindness from those that can't see better days ahead. the global economy is huge and its not slowing down for those that can't keep up with it... harsh, but true.

reading some of this threads this AM, i'm still shocked at how many TSP'ers use political opinion as their investing gauge.
 
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The matador is inexperienced in the bull arena - the learning curve just takes time. That's why I say learn before you churn - it's only taken me 39 years.
 
transports, qqqq's just getting bullish crossovers on the MACD daily candlesticks, they look like they'll test Octobers' tops and on quick ticks up to upper bollingers. Bearish dollar trade well within "the plan". G20 overtly saying that that is "the plan". M&As will pick up. Retail traders will be tentative and spooked because of the H&S and double tops forming and passage of the house health bill. With the Xmas deadline on the Senate, the gridlock fear-trade may play out for a month and 1/2. Shake, chase, rattle and roll!
 
contemplating moving 50% from equities to cap preservation on the short term because of the 6 day rising wedge in transports... looks like it will break to the dowside any second. BUT... i'm thinking this is the morning fakeout because QQQQ and bearish dollar trade look well within their measure bull moves. Transports has that rising wedge almost going to the 2 year resistance point (i think that's the big technical anaylsis fakeout though because the G20 didn't come this far to have it broken by technical blip). Just like the rising wedge trendlines get revised in the main indices, this will also happen in that 6 day transports rising wedge. Big boys will come in and prop it up and the alleged rising wedge gets revised again to a measured bull move... its happening again and again... so after all that, i'm holding 50/50 S&I.

also, with Veteran's day... there may be a low volume prop up play in there, TSP is closed but the markets are opened, right? The hard part is anticipating the markets short term reaction if we get back to 1101.
 
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fedgolfer said:
contemplating moving 50% from equities to cap preservation on the short term because of the 6 day rising wedge in transports... looks like it will break to the dowside any second. BUT... i'm thinking this is the morning fakeout because QQQQ and bearish dollar trade look well within their measure bull moves. Transports has that rising wedge almost going to the 2 year resistance point (i think that's the big technical anaylsis fakeout though because the G20 didn't come this far to have it broken by technical blip). Just like the rising wedge trendlines get revised in the main indices, this will also happen in that 6 day transports rising wedge. Big boys will come in and prop it up and the alleged rising wedge gets revised again to a measured bull move... its happening again and again... so after all that, i'm holding 50/50 S&I.

also, with Veteran's day... there may be a low volume prop up play in there, TSP is closed but the markets are opened, right? The hard part is anticipating the markets short term reaction if we get back to 1101.
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was hoping to fit some golf in today but the rain ruined the plans :( Oh well, time to have fun in the trading account. Thinking SPY and transports fall back from the gap open and then kiss the top of yesterday's candlesticks and then its up from there. Today is a great day to gap up several stocks/etfs and get people to open a short position and then reverse it. The short squeeze and low volume should give the big boys the bully-move to push it over the 1101 area. We'll look back several years from now and many will say -- why did I fight the Fed and every other central bank in the most obvious carry trade move in history?
 
that 1101 level in the S&P that inthemoneystocks calls the great wall of china, will now become the great support of china. intra-day, we'll test it a few times and that's good because shorts will open up a postition every time it fluctuates around that number; then, daily when people see the transports has broken the 2 year bearish resistance line and also in the Dow, Nasdaq and soon to be S&P, the low volume up days will turn into high volume up days. Just trying to pick my next short term top that worth burning an IFT on. Suggestions and points? Maybe I'll just follow ATCJeff, he's pretty good on selling a short term top pre-ift deadline. But then, I'm back in as soon as I smell the fear and probably re-test 1101 on the daily's soon after.
 
i'm betting the red 10:30-11 AM candlesticks will find support on the UDN 7 day support line. GREAT BEAR TRAP.

Going to play some tennis.

Thank you, Veterans.
 
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