Fedgolfer's Account Talk

[fedgolfer]

Regarding the 8 month wedge in the S&P, i'm thinking there maybe an expanding rising wedge where we see small breakouts and small breakdowns that redraw the the support and resistance lines that will eventually look like a large measured bull-move. The current interpretation looks like a double top... curious to see the action on the new support line from 666 to 1019 extending to around 1050'ish, if the s&p stays above that it'll blow the double top theory out of the water.

 

[fedgolfer]

For rational thinkers only... good Oscar vid (10/15/09):

http://www.youtube.com/user/futuresanalysts#p/u

don't watch it if you can't handle truths of the Fed and currency markets.

 

[Birchtree]

Thanks for the warning - this video did in fact leave me with a multitude of bearish intrepidations - I was lucky to survive such an insult. Thanx.

 

[JTH]

For rational thinkers only... good Oscar vid (10/15/09):

http://www.youtube.com/user/futuresanalysts#p/u

don't watch it if you can't handle truths of the Fed and currency markets.

Any luck posting charts? I look forward to seeing them.

 

[fedgolfer]

I plan on staying 100% stocks until 1150, and then see what the soup looks like then. Personally, I think the rising wedge will change to a measured bull move but the support and resistance lines will be broken on the upside and downside of the rising wedge several times until obvious parrallel channels are evident. here's some simplified pics...

 

[fedgolfer]

... how do i make those pics bigger?

 

[KevinD]

Try this. Open in paint. Click "Image" then "stretch/skew." Increase the percentages and make sure they are the same.

 

[mdszj]

fedgolfer

A while back you posted a link to the new seven sentinels site on coolhand's account, but I cannot find it. Can you post it again? thx

 

[fedgolfer]

fedgolfer

A while back you posted a link to the new seven sentinels site on coolhand's account, but I cannot find it. Can you post it again? thx

http://www.sevensentinels.com/Home.html

Unfortunately the link isn't going to do you much good since they're transitioning to a pay service. But if you scour Coolhand's link, you'll see the chart settings used in the seven sentinels. The $BPCOMPQ looks pretty interesting now when you go 8 months out and then zoom in a little closer. either it pops significantly, or it drops, if the last 8 months is any indication to the future. I'll try to post it later.

 

[mdszj]

That is too bad about it going to a pay service. I did not see anything on the site regarding sub fees, etc. At least the original SS is still available, and it seems like it is very reliable based on the previous signals I have seen. I guess I will continue using the old style SS sigs.

 

[fedgolfer]

Transports showing a short-term double top but still well within a medium term uptrend. It seems to have been reacting exactly on some fibonacci levels since July. Double top could be an illusion but i'll respect it if it falls out of the channel... here's quick IYT chart...

 

[fedgolfer]

$BPCOMPQ 8 month chart, showing PPO crossover pop, stochastics are acutally bullish too... sure doesn't feel like it emotionally though... that may be a good thing, here's the chart... jury still out in the short term, could be a false signal as in start of July... next couple of days should tell the story.

 

[fedgolfer]

http://www.youtube.com/user/futuresanalysts

10-16-09 vid... Oscar admits he screwed the pooch and warns of double tops o' plenty.

 

[fedgolfer]

http://www.youtube.com/user/futuresanalysts

10-16-09 vid... Oscar admits he screwed the pooch and warns of double tops o' plenty.

I'm starting to think the G7 central banks are trying to bifurcate the US$ from the equity markets... it ain't the time.

 

[fedgolfer]

weekly chart of the financials appears to hitting its head on the resistance line drawn on the outer wicks of the weekly candlestick. This comes after breaking out of the resistance line drawn on the close of the the weekly candlestick... chart showing it may retrace back to that initial resistance line that will hopefully become support (blue circle).

I don't think its a rising wedge and don't think it's smart to fight the Fed and its 19 best friends. Maybe next week we have earnings that blow these double tops and rising wedge theories out of the water. I'm in until they really fall apart.

 

[JTH]

... how do i make those pics bigger?

Syr for the late reply. After you upload the attacments, click on the paperclip and insert the .png then it should display for you.

View attachment 6988

 

[fedgolfer]

EFA (I fund) has three interesting rising wedge scenarios. And this is why I don't think any of them really are rising wedges and rather expanding wedges that will ultimately end up in measured bull moves with parallel lines.

The blue lines show EFA has already fallen out of the rising wedge and came back up to the broken support line and appears to have kissed it goodbye. The dotted red wedge line of support counters the blue rising wedge arguement and says we're still well within it.

Green line, the one with the new support point says we're well within a larger rising wedge too. Each one of these breakouts and breakdowns shakes traders/invetors out... but when its all said and done you're well into a bull market and with no rising wedge to speak of. Too much money and minds being thrown at this, earnings will follow. This is all jibberish for the 8 month rising wedge is a bullshit mirage meant to get us to jump out... and believe it or not, it is a pattern that happens again and again.

 

[KevinD]

That chart is smaller than the others.

 

[fedgolfer]

That chart is smaller than the others.

I can't post stuff for sh*t... oh well, its small but accurate

 

[JTH]

Test...