Fedgolfer's Account Talk

[fedgolfer]

still holding S-fund 100%... dwcpf's candlestick today pierced the upper bollinger... although that seems like a smart point to bail, i'm holding on a little longer and waiting for both slow stoch and MACD to get into overbought territory and for some divergence -- there still seems to be room for some upside (feeling a bit piggish though).

 

[fedgolfer]

I think inthemoneystock's assessment of a rebound in commodities/oil will only be temporary this time. Looks like the charts will rebound but then kiss the previous bull channel goodbye.

 

[fedgolfer]

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$EMW&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12830196731


for those looking for S-fund TA, on the weekly chart, I wouldn't be suprised if this "rebound" tops out at the upper bollinger of 640'ish on the $EMW... we may see a red candlestick once it hits resistance just above 600 and the mid-bollinger point... next week's candletick. But then, it's off to the races in my opinion.

 

[fedgolfer]

This guy is telling the bottom is in/meredith whitney story today, 8/14 almost a full month after we on TSPtalk pointed it out the second it happened. what gets me is that he's so certain to play it as the bottom and that meredith whitney is so absolute in saying that there is only one meaningful direction to play financials by saying, "Do you understand me, do NOT buy financials!" I guess people have to tell in absolutes in order to sell their story. These wall street gurus know nothing more than we do -- except how to get $330 M in bonuses.

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticke...-Fund-Manager?tickers=ubs,bac,jpm,gs,wb,c,leh

 

[fedgolfer]

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$EMW&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12830196731


for those looking for S-fund TA, on the weekly chart, I wouldn't be suprised if this "rebound" tops out at the upper bollinger of 640'ish on the $EMW... we may see a red candlestick once it hits resistance just above 600 and the mid-bollinger point... next week's candletick. But then, it's off to the races in my opinion.

oops, will have to rethink that possible red candlestick for next week and see how Wednesday of next week plays out... purple square (vix expiration). If we get a strong morning tomorrow due to a short squeeze... I may bail S-fund. If we get to red candlesticks on Monday and Tuesday, I'm loading the boat again with S-fund for the VIX-ex day.

http://www.optionsclearing.com/publications/xcal/xcal2008.pdf

 

[fedgolfer]

IFT 8/15 COB: 50%G, 50%S

took some off the table on the mid-bollinger on the weekly chart thinking we may get some profit taking... left some on the table because I think we're still an an uptrend that will continue until we break that lower trendline everyone is talking about.

 

[fedgolfer]

TSP swing trading has been crazy for me this year... from dead last in the autotracker and -20% to 59th and just under -3% for the year. Although it still feels like i'm hemoraging TSP retirement funds... I guess I should still be happy to be up 17% since my March low.

 

[Corepuncher]

TSP swing trading has been crazy for me this year... from dead last in the autotracker and -20% to 59th and just under -3% for the year. Although it still feels like i'm hemoraging TSP retirement funds... I guess I should still be happy to be up 17% since my March low.

That is an amazing run! You are a regular "Jim Cramer 1998!"

 

[fedgolfer]

IFT: 100% S

going back all in. thinking this breakdown of the rising wedge will transform/find support and look like a measured bull move like the SPY did in April. Everyone is hopping off or getting defensive and there's a lot of fear again... Just buying the dip since sentiment is overly bearish too. if the SPY price falls below a measure bull move move... I'm 100% G ASAP.

 

[Corepuncher]

IFT: 100% S

going back all in. thinking this breakdown of the rising wedge will transform/find support and look like a measured bull move like the SPY did in April. Everyone is hopping off or getting defensive and there's a lot of fear again... Just buying the dip since sentiment is overly bearish too. if the SPY price falls below a measure bull move move... I'm 100% G ASAP.

The XLF just hit the lower Bollinger Band today. Could mean that financials will lead the market down for a while soon.

 

[fedgolfer]

The XLF just hit the lower Bollinger Band today. Could mean that financials will lead the market down for a while soon.

Yikes, I hope not. I think UYG is in a buy-zone $18<>$19... bollinger gives it a green light for oversold, stochs give it a green light for oversold, trendlines give it a green light for a support area that has held on 7/17, 7/22, 7/28 and 7/29. What has me worried though is the expanding divergence lines heading downward on MACD on the daily candlesticks. so, I have a pretty tight "mental stop" for the S-fund and hopefully can get out at, or within, 2% of where I bought back in.

 

[fedgolfer]

Today's volatility is crazy... the size of the 10-minute candlesticks are big, maybe the market makers are trying to shake everyone out long or short.

for uyg, check out the volume on the upswings versus downtrends. Technically (at least) it appears as though the big boys are buying the fear and the lows... mid-trend accumulation.

 

[fedgolfer]

Is this a correct hypothesis: If the Fed stays on hold despite hot inflation numbers, and the ECB/BOE raise rates to fight inflation, in a global economy, that should fight inflation for the US without the Fed needing to do anything. It seems that the ECB hike was soon followed by the falloff in oil/commodities, at the same time the dollar really started to heat up (even though it has done nothing but higher lows and higher highs since March). The oil/dollar trade has also helped the spike in the dollar, and this trade/counter-trade will take a while to unwind... oil inventories should have had an even more lasting effect on the dollar index... maybe we'll see that the next few days.

 

[FogSailing]

Good question FG. It would certainly seem that a rate increase in the EU would have the effect of making the dollar both strengthened and of greater value, thus allowing for more exports while keeping oil and commodities prices more reasonable...Who knows, maybe the Asians will raise rates, and that will fix all our economic woes..

FS

 

[fedgolfer]

Tom's Rydex Cash flow chart from decessionpoint is a great chart. I wish I could zoom in and see it in finer detail. It appears as though each time the uptrend finally reversed was when it piereced the upper bollinger on a euphoric top, and looking at it, it hit it once but not like the other tops. I may be foolish for playing with fire. Regardless great chart! Thanks, Tom.

 

[fedgolfer]

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$EMW&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12830196731


for those looking for S-fund TA, on the weekly chart, I wouldn't be suprised if this "rebound" tops out at the upper bollinger of 640'ish on the $EMW... we may see a red candlestick once it hits resistance just above 600 and the mid-bollinger point... next week's candletick. But then, it's off to the races in my opinion.

so far, check.

IFT: 100% S

going back all in. thinking this breakdown of the rising wedge will transform/find support and look like a measured bull move like the SPY did in April. Everyone is hopping off or getting defensive and there's a lot of fear again... Just buying the dip since sentiment is overly bearish too. if the SPY price falls below a measure bull move move... I'm 100% G ASAP.

so far, markets moving like planned

I think UYG is in a buy-zone $18<>$19... bollinger gives it a green light for oversold, stochs give it a green light for oversold, trendlines give it a green light for a support area that has held on 7/17, 7/22, 7/28 and 7/29. What has me worried though is the expanding divergence lines heading downward on MACD on the daily candlesticks.

proved to be a great buy point... will sell half of what I bought, if I get a nice spike up to penetrate the 10 or 30 minute candlstick bollingers on the intradays. Will have to see how dwcpf plays out through the AM pre-IFT deadline.

 

[fedgolfer]

getting bogged down in the daily charts can get pretty hazy... the weekly charts may add a little more clarity for the some of the TSP funds:

I called this red candlestick with a bullish tail last week, hopefully it will test the mid-bollinger (20):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p25916200355

S-fund still hasn't penetrated the mid-bollinger.


http://www.stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$EMW&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p25916200355

 

[fedgolfer]

Econo-geeks everywhere will have trouble sleeping tonight now that the Census Bureau has released its annual report on Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance... it appears as though Rubin handed off the ball and, names that will go unmentioned, fumbled.

http://www.census.gov/prod/2008pubs/p60-235.pdf

Here are a few Highlights...

First, we learn from Table A-1 that median household income is up 1.3% this year! ($50,233)

That’s the good news—the bad is that it is still lower than it was in back in 1999 ($50,641) (and, if we are in a recession, it will likely be down this year.)

Second, real median earnings for a full-time, year-round male (Table A-2) is up an impressive 3.8%! ($45,113)

It is a little bit less impressive when you learn that this number is lower than in 1999 ($45,283) and 1973 ($46,659)!

Third, here are the household income levels for 2007 at selected percentiles (so you can see how rich you are)...

10th percentile limit- $12,162
20th percentile limit- $20,291
50th (median) $50,233
80th percentile limit- $100,000
90th percentile limit- $136,000
95th percentile limit- $177,000

in the short-term... great prelim GDP.

On a IFT sidenote: Gustov and end of month pop are telling me to lock the gains. However, the SPY and $dwcp charts are saying strong chance to hit the upper bollinger... plus I'd like to be in stocks going into Sept (allowing me a move to G, then possibly a move back into stocks for a bounce, and then more moves to G/Cap preservation).

 

[fedgolfer]

Periodically Tom posts the Rydex Cash flow ratio chart. I went to decisionpoint.com and they don't update that daily (at least that I could find). Does anyone know where to get a current one and one updated daily?! Is there a ticker for used as a tech indicator?

 

[fedgolfer]

well, maybe not the top spot on the monthly autotracker August Return list, but at least I got top-5. Now that I get the laser pen my TSP goals are now complete.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bh7bYNAHXxw

on a more serious note... the news of Gustov being downgraded to a 2 is somewhat alleviating... I couldn't imagine those same people going through such a catastrope again. The storm surge is expected to be a lot lower than Katrina's. Let's hope for a mother nature miracle and for this to pass without much damage or destruction to anyone.