Fedgolfer's Account Talk

[fedgolfer]

with MER and C announcing this afternoon and tomorrow pre-market we could see more fireworks. I'm sure the options straddles hoping for volatility are making a killing.

 

[fedgolfer]

-$1.91 sounds like an easy number to beat for MER, eh? We'll see if they sandbagged, i'm sure all financials did.

 

[fedgolfer]

at this juncture, I'm agreeing w/ inthemoneystock's short term outlook. I think UYG/XLF is slowly form an inverted head & shoulders on the 1 month chart using 10 or 30 min candlesticks. If we start pulling back in financials, I'll be watch $19 (the 7/1 low) or ~$18 (the 7/7 low) as possible bottoms for the formation of the right shoulder and buying op. I'm thinking the general markets may mimic that general pattern. with 9 trading days left in July for TSP IFT's, I may just stay in and hope those shoulder's hold since I've used my IFT's, if it breaks down in that timeframe, I'll bail to G.

 

[fedgolfer]

If we start pulling back in financials, I'll be watch $19 (the 7/1 low)

UYG order filled at $19. That's only half my order though. I don't think my other one will fill at $18. I'll have to reassess. I think UYG will see the $20.35 area (the 200 SMA on the 5 minute intraday). Anyway, Paulson is hard at work at stabilizing confidence. Let's hope oil keeps falling.

Also, look at the volume on Wachovia after the scare-job... the big boys definitely used this another area of accumaltion.

 

[fedgolfer]

failed double top on UYG/failed double bottom on SKF intraday and filling the AM gap. Technically this is a great sign if anyone is trying to find an emerging pattern pre-IFT deadline and adds a lot of credence that these financials scares will be bought up by the big boys.

 

[fedgolfer]

geez, the people that can't spot accumulation are really gonna feel like chasers.

 

[Steadygain]

Technically this is a great sign if anyone is trying to find an emerging pattern pre-IFT deadline and adds a lot of credence that these financials scares will be bought up by the big boys.

Would agree my friend.

I honestly could care less if this is just a "dead cat bounce" or the beginning of something better. The bottom line are "the big boys" bringing in the real money and when we see signs of that - BE IN TO WIN and ride it out.

IF this is just a bounce and we see a fairly sustained dive - will shift several accounts in preperation for "the bottom". My TSP will be a huge part of my retirement so I'll buy up tons of shares if in reality we're only 3/4ths of the way to the bottom.

But if this is simply the stardard "ups and downs" of Market volitility then a surprise sustained upturn could easily be at play.

 

[fedgolfer]

Steady, check out the 6-month daily chart on UYG... 10 times the volume on this "bounce" versus the BSC capitulation candlestick. Not only that, all the hedge fund managers and IB spokespeople (i.e meredith whitney) were out screaming don't buy the financials on CNBC and bloomberg... meanwhile, the institutional buyers were obviously buying in record volume. If that's not the definition of buying low and making chasers out of the scared retail folk, I don't know what is.

 

[Steadygain]

6-month daily chart on UYG... 10 times the volume on this "bounce"

... meanwhile, the institutional buyers were obviously buying in record volume.

If that's not the definition of buying low and making chasers out of the scared retail folk, I don't know what is.

This largely supports my comment yesterday - advising those in G/F to shift to C/S/I (with the intention of holding).

I personally don't believe we've hit the bottom yet - but it makes no difference what I think. The fact remains as we get closer to the bottom the volume will increase.

I anticipate new lows - following by a "rolling flatline " in the valley - then the BULL will break loose with incredible force and those of us in C/S/I or any combination will rake in the bucks. But this is a much more difficult situation/condition to assess since it in no way shape or form follows what we would typically think of as a "Bear Market" and therefore the "flatline" may not come to pass.

 

[fedgolfer]

UYG order filled at $19.

sold it all at $21.90... it may not let me back in. But with Washington Mutual reporting I may get another freebie and buy some more panic selling. current price only .10 cents above my sell.

oh, I used the 2-day double top on the spy as a sell signal. I felt anything else was a little pigish even though a breakout above that is extremely likely.

 

[Birchtree]

If you had 5,000 shares you made some money.

 

[fedgolfer]

only 1,500... but i'm already feeling seller's remorse. if WM beats their crappy estimate... UYG will be $24 easy tomorrow (the 6/25 high area). man, I though small guys would jump in at this level, but volume is saying even institutional money is jumping in. i'm buying uyg on any initial weakness from WM.

 

[fedgolfer]

here's my hypothesis on UYG (the main indices may follow the general waves of this pattern)... if you take the 10 minute candlestick chart on the UYG over 10 days, you'll see we're in a measured bull move from the 7/16 reversal. We've pierced the upper trendline twice (on 7/17 and on 7/23)... and we bounced off the 7/22 low (also the lower trendline and the 275 SMA). If you plug in SMAs of 56,125,275 you'll see several technical bounces off of those levels. I think it would be healthy to retest that 275 SMA which will be the second retest of the measured bull move and may lead to a third wave. I'll keep you all posted if this ends up playing out for a third wave. I think it will be less likely to play out if we ramp up first thing this AM and test yesterday's high and then retreat... it will look like a double top. Anyway, just my quick 2 cents.

 

[fedgolfer]

re: my tsp and being 100% S... I'm feeling like a greedy bagholder today (with 1 IFT still in hand)... dwcpf has fallen out of it's measured bull move since July 15th. Its testing the 500 SMA on the 5 minute chart as i'm typing this, since i'm already in and expecting the market to turn around when the financials hit the bottom trendline in it's bull move, I suppose I have to hold and hope for dwcpf to kiss the channel that it fell out of and maybe pierce that for some end of month window dressing. I believe we're seeing sell-the news on the bill passage of the GSE rescue. I'm hope that the PPT will step in and buy this up before the markets fall and technical pressure is on the downside on the daily and weekly charts.

 

[Steadygain]

re: my tsp and being 100% S...

Didn't realize you were 100% S Fund.

I'm the same with a 6/5 buy date - and there is no doubt I will wind up winning. In all liklihood you bought after me so you will rake in an even bigger reward.

I'd say you're better off avoiding ITFs for now and thinking more long term gains. S Fund will undoubtedly bring wonderful rewards.

 

[fedgolfer]

Didn't realize you were 100% S Fund.

I'm the same with a 6/5 buy date - and there is no doubt I will wind up winning. In all liklihood you bought after me so you will rake in an even bigger reward.

I'd say you're better off avoiding ITFs for now and thinking more long term gains. S Fund will undoubtedly bring wonderful rewards.

I bought in around 7/9... to date, I think I was the weekly monthly leader in the autotracker with the exception of 1 person who opened an account mid-month. The reason I share this, is to show that maybe it was my greed on adding to that lead that made me stay in with 1 IFT available plus unlimitted to G. Just hope someone can learn from that since I could have "realized" that gain. WTD: 2.48 % MTD: 4.23 % QTD 4.14 % ---- I got greedy, plain and simple. Although UYG is bouncing off yesterday's low, this could be today's low (low in the bollinger, slow stoch and macd while breaking its upper trendline -- gotta run, may buy UYG on a day-trade.

 

[luv2read]

re: my tsp and being 100% S... I have to hold and hope for dwcpf to kiss the channel that it fell out of and maybe pierce that for some end of month window dressing. I believe we're seeing sell-the news on the bill passage of the GSE rescue.

I agree - I'm also looking for a pop at end of month. Do you think today's unemployment and housing reports also caused today's downer - or just the GSE rescue news?

 

[fedgolfer]

I agree - I'm also looking for a pop at end of month. Do you think today's unemployment and housing reports also caused today's downer - or just the GSE rescue news?

I think it's sell-the-news profit taking. Problem is, it's and expensive assumption to make, without seeing a real bounce yet intra-day and the volume that will hopefully accompany a bounce intraday on oversold conditions. ~<1260 close on the s&p seems like that line in the sand on bailing this TSP swing trade.

 

[fedgolfer]

UYG limit order at $21.60.

cancelled, waiting for a tail on a candlestick.

 

[fedgolfer]

UYG limit order at $21.60.

cancelled, waiting for a tail on a candlestick.

filled and chased a bit at $21.75 have another limit order @ 21.30, will place a stop limit 21.09 if the second order gets filled and we still head down.