Fedgolfer's Account Talk

[fedgolfer]

Contemplated leaving a little on the table in the I fund for a bounce off the 5 SMA in the EFA chart. But didn't think it was worth the play since the indices are straddling that line in the sand. All G until a clearer picture can be drawn.

 

[fedgolfer]

looks like a possible short-term bounce... some real volume on RIMM, AAPL, GOOG, I bought some QLD and set a stop where I bought it, already cancelled it and set it higher. I hope it holds and doesn't fade and turn into a day trade. Anyway, contemplating buying a split between C and S, thinking the I-fund may not return as much if the ECB raises rates. Will see how this plays out until the IFT deadline. Anyone else jumping in with the TSP account? Weekly chart looks like a good buying opportunity on the SPY.

 

[Corepuncher]

looks like a possible short-term bounce... some real volume on RIMM, AAPL, GOOG, I bought some QLD and set a stop where I bought it, already cancelled it and set it higher. I hope it holds and doesn't fade and turn into a day trade. Anyway, contemplating buying a split between C and S, thinking the I-fund may not return as much if the ECB raises rates. Will see how this plays out until the IFT deadline. Anyone else jumping in with the TSP account? Weekly chart looks like a good buying opportunity on the SPY.

Actually if the ECB raises rates, doesn't that make their currency more valuable relative to the dollar? Same as us lowering rates and them holding them = lower dollar? Not sure.

 

[fedgolfer]

Actually if the ECB raises rates, doesn't that make their currency more valuable relative to the dollar? Same as us lowering rates and them holding them = lower dollar? Not sure.

wait, yeah, you're right. So then oil will explode to the upside and the markets will tank more?

 

[fedgolfer]

OK, i'm an idiot. I cancelled my IFT.

 

[fedgolfer]

seems like there's a duality coming to a crossroads and one has to give pretty soon. If the ECB fights inflation and raises rates you'd think that would lower commodity prices and oil, right? But if they, raise rates, that strengthens the Euro and weakens the dollar. For over a year, a weak dollar has meant higher oil. So, it seems both can't work simultaneously, right? Is this confusion only in my head, or can someone help me before the IFT deadline.

 

[luv2read]

IMO I Fund.

 

[fedgolfer]

IMO I Fund.

Thanks, l2r, after y'all straightened my confused mind up yesterday, I see how the i-fund may have more cushion because of the euro/$ currency trade. Lemme ask a question though, since I'm strongly considering buying into I fund. If you're a Euro, or other EAFE inhabitant, holding stocks and you hear the ECB raises rates, wouldn't you run to safety or at least put a stop-loss in since growth has been taken of the table to a large degree? And wouldn't that get-defensive thought process possibly outweigh any cushion the strengthening Euro may give the I-fund?

 

[fedgolfer]

Oil is losing support and the UYG/XLF is gaining. USO has fallen into the lower half of its bollinger on the daily charts. Think this is the short term breakdown in oil? Contemplating IFT'ing to more C/S/or I.

Looking closer at USO/oil makes me want to buy USO if it test and finds support in the $108 area though.

 

[fedgolfer]

if USO drops below 109.60, looks like a good time to jump into UYG at $19.79... hope I don't get stopped out @ 19.50. We're at that pivot point now and nearing the 2:30 close for NYMEX. I went in today w/ S fund. Takin' a shot. But will bail fast with a tight stop. Hope y'all had a great independence day.

 

[fedgolfer]

just loaded the boat on UWM (Russell 2000 ultra) at $44.45, set stop-loss at $43.57. Now's the time to take a chance, eh?

 

[fedgolfer]

no volume, on the SPY... you'd think think some big boys would be taking a shot here, but they're not yet. Not a good sign.

 

[JTH]

no volume, on the SPY... you'd think think some big boys would be taking a shot here, but they're not yet. Not a good sign.

Thank you for pointing this out. I really want to jump in, but I feel like the big spenders want the market to drop further before they jump in.

 

[fedgolfer]

here's comes some late day volume -- program buy/PPT manipulation/short squeeze? Or more institutional investors unloading to the retails schmucks (like me).

 

[fedgolfer]

this looks like the start to a definitive capitulation candlestick. Especially on the XLF/UYG. still no real bailout news only talk.

here's a list of the XLF's top 10 holdings by %age:

AMER EXPRESS INC AXP 2.75
AMER INTL GROUP INC AIG 4.98
BK OF AMERICA CP BAC 7.76
BANK OF NY MELLON CP BK 2.61
CITIGROUP INC C 5.86
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP GS 3.58
JP MORGAN CHASE CO JPM 7.5
US BANCORP USB 2.95
WACHOVIA CP WB 2.6
WELLS FARGO & CO NEW WFC 4.67

 

[fedgolfer]

meredith whitney was on bloomberg today screaming that the financials are dead, she even added, "did I make myself clear?!" I missed Art Cashen's trader's edge at 8:50 AM on CNBC, he usually calls it fair and seemingly without agenda. Did anyone hear him? My radio cut out when he said the dollar was at a tipping point. Whitney's agenda, i'm not so sure about, she's been calling it right for a good ways, but the financials looks so dead that if it goes any further... than we're going to get in a free fall that will disolve the financial landscape as we see it. i don't think it will get that far since the GSE's only have a 1.25% default rate... FNM/FRE don't have significant subprime exposure. This all seems so overdone, and feels like an orchestrated shakeout.

On the other hand, If the free fall starts I will bail and admit I'm dead wrong.

 

[Birchtree]

I think getting out now is like jumping off the street curb - not far to fall unless you trip.

 

[fedgolfer]

... I bought in the S fund all in a few days ago, admittedly too early, but I've been agreeing with everyone that's saying now is a good a time as any to play the oversold bounce. But, just like any trade I have a stop-loss in mind and hopefully will being adjusting that upwards as we rally. I'm in UYG as of yesterday in a trading account that's margin enabled. But i'm not as ballsy as you to buy that without setting a stop.

I'm perma-bulled (at least to either the 20 dma on the S&P or maybe even 50 or 200. When the shorts get squeezed it'll be big. I'm also a huge Sugarandspice fan... knowing her, she'll be back in the I-fund pretty soon.

 

[Birchtree]

Off the March '03 bottom it was the small caps that ran the hardest - I was lucky to catch that ride. Will history repeat that's the question and the risk factor. If she moves back to the I fund she will risk loosing her #1 spot - I don't think she has that kind of courage but it means nothing to me.

 

[fedgolfer]

... that xlf/uyg weekly candlestick is going to be screaming capitulation with a nice tail if we close here or higher. If the body looks like its in the upper quarter of the stick, even better. Obviously several days to go in closing the week, but the potential buyers will love that signal.

finally have some higher lows and higher highs in the financials. Oil/uso off the 50 dma, could put another late day fizzle into the works though.