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Fedgolfer's Account Talk
- Thread starter fedgolfer
- Start date
fedgolfer
Well-known member
Ha! I thought this was TSPTalk... not Craigslist.
fedgolfer
Well-known member
since today will probably close above yesterday's close, that may serve as breakout confirmation in the s&p... good chance for a gap up tomorrow, then the shorts have to cover, up we go. Embedded stochastic on the UDN daily chart. Upper bollinger running away from the candlestick.
fedgolfer
Well-known member
Nice call Fed (hopefully!)
OK, I botched the gap up. I thought recent market action would create emotions that created the 7/15/09 candlestick in the S&P... that timeframe is very similar to what we're seeing now. The options expirationcoming after a breakout in a HUGE intermediate chart pattern. Also using CMF as a contrarian indicator, seeing spiked footballs in 20 and 50 day moving averages, I think there's more of a chance that we see July's extension versus the past few months of rolling over at the top of bollingers and trendlines.
Anyway, I see the embedded slow stochastic still holding in the SPY versus rolling over quickly and definitively as in September and October. Financials, which has been weighing the DOW and S&P down since the breakout, is actually showing a possible breakout of a penant formation, it is on the top line of resistance as I type this.
Feeling iffy about it all though since ATCJeff just went to the Garage. I'm bucking my gut and trying to trust the TA I see in the charts. Good luck to all
fedgolfer
Well-known member
Part of my decision on today's move was it's my first IFT of the month. Looking for a 5-7% pullback and I'm back in! If we continue to move higher I'm screwed, but 6% for one month is great.
Congrats, great move. Always smart to lock the gains while conserving a precious IFT. I may have oinker's remorse.
fedgolfer
Well-known member
embedded slow stochastic still above 80 in SPY, $Tran and the QQQQs... plus highest short interest since March... this says there maybe the second biggest short squeeze of the year in the cards... but you'd think we would have seen it in back to back and huge reversal candlesticks. So, I had to weigh would I rather be a chaser or bagholder... went 50 G, 50 C. Will chase if we get confirmation above the Gr8 wall of China line.
fedgolfer
Well-known member
... of course this is right in the face of a triple top in the daily chart of $tran, and what could be a rounding top for the s&p. But those big stealth rallies usually come in the face of all the obvious indicators.
If I'm bearish on da Bulls and da Bears this year... I have to bullish about something!!!!
If I'm bearish on da Bulls and da Bears this year... I have to bullish about something!!!!
fedgolfer
Well-known member
Above the great wall of China... Thursday and Friday were bear traps. I feel like a sucker. Birch is grinning. Oh well, kinda thought it would happen and have only 50% in c-fund... today, i'm a TSP chaser. The fraidy-cats got to me! The gap up was just the gap... the rest of the day will be the all the shorties covering... maybe the rest of the week.
coolhand
Well-known member
fedgolfer
Well-known member
This is black box trading at its finest. It's the same money moving in and out.
The see-saw effect of all the bears playing the 3-month charts, then jumping back to the bulls side is going to catapult the charts. Imagine what my favorite 7 sentinels chart will look like by COB today and tomorrow... that redline may bust through the UPPER bollinger. What do you think?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPCOMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p00210748467
Also, did last week really emotionally feel toppy? No way. People, indcluding me, were mostly scared out. It wasn't a euphoric feeling at all.
coolhand
Well-known member
There wasn't really any reason to be "scared" out. As for myself, I'm just playing the charts. We looked to be due for a sell-off, and we got it. I locked in my gains and now I'm simply waiting for my next opp.
We can only play this up/down game to a very limited extent with our TSP. If I can grab a decent gain each month, who cares if I'm in G the rest of the time? It's like an elevator. Yeah, we're moving higher, but it's a slow move; a trend. Will it last? I'll let the charts decide that.
But if we close the way we opened today, the SS will probably be flashing some buys. But BPCOMPQ has not been moved much by this volatility, so there's some real caution there. It's been trending down.
fedgolfer
Well-known member
There wasn't really any reason to be "scared" out. As for myself, I'm just playing the charts. We looked to be due for a sell-off, and we got it. I locked in my gains and now I'm simply waiting for my next opp.
We can only play this up/down game to a very limited extent with our TSP. If I can grab a decent gain each month, who cares if I'm in G the rest of the time? It's like an elevator. Yeah, we're moving higher, but it's a slow move; a trend. Will it last? I'll let the charts decide that.
But if we close the way we opened today, the SS will probably be flashing some buys. But BPCOMPQ has not been moved much by this volatility, so there's some real caution there. It's been trending down.
Yeah, the IFT limitations are such an obstacle... did you see the embedded slow stoch in SPY... charts are screaming stealth rally to me... but the ift limitations have me wearing a risk manager hat since we can't play or see the post-deadline whips.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p78516470892
fedgolfer
Well-known member
I wouldn't open a short position here, are you friggin crazy? the treasury auctions this week will pummel the dollar, china will buy our debt with both fists. All that headroom between price and the upper bollinger in all the big charts say DO NOT SHORT. The only red candlesticks we'll see are on an intraday basis this week IMHO. If you really believe its a GS scheme (which I don't, but do think they're capatilizing on the whole thing), than why would you go short when they're so dependant on their long positions making everything pretty?
fedgolfer
Well-known member
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