Fedgolfer's Account Talk

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... also all these commodity charts flashing double tops will be severly revised today... with todays price action many of these will show the odds are now showing a cup and handle breakout. Got to factor in that into today's IFT decision. XOM is already in a breakout.
 
coolhand said:
There wasn't really any reason to be "scared" out. As for myself, I'm just playing the charts. We looked to be due for a sell-off, and we got it. I locked in my gains and now I'm simply waiting for my next opp.

We can only play this up/down game to a very limited extent with our TSP. If I can grab a decent gain each month, who cares if I'm in G the rest of the time? It's like an elevator. Yeah, we're moving higher, but it's a slow move; a trend. Will it last? I'll let the charts decide that.

But if we close the way we opened today, the SS will probably be flashing some buys. But BPCOMPQ has not been moved much by this volatility, so there's some real caution there. It's been trending down. :confused:
Click to expand...

Everyone knows my stand on 2 IFT's for the month. If we can not increase our IFT's then let us make a decision closer to 4:00pm. However I might be tempted to change my opinion more towards a "buy & hold". I haven't back tested this yet because I only have complete fund prices from 3rd quarter of 2006. That and I haven't taken the time to do it yet.:)
But here are the numbers as of 11/20/09. (I have posted this information regularly in my thread). I started each fund with $100,000.00. The <1% fund is not as accurate as I would like because of the noon deadline and the volatility of the market.
<1%............$123,862.84
85,5,5,5,5....$105,943.51
30,35,35......$123,328.65
100% C........$119,873.33
100% S........$124,304.53
100% I.........$125,314.47
 
fedgolfer said:
The see-saw effect of all the bears playing the 3-month charts, then jumping back to the bulls side is going to catapult the charts. Imagine what my favorite 7 sentinels chart will look like by COB today and tomorrow... that redline may bust through the UPPER bollinger. What do you think?

Also, did last week really emotionally feel toppy? No way. People, indcluding me, were mostly scared out. It wasn't a euphoric feeling at all.
Click to expand...

Charts don't mean jack when the Fed's got your back. Another Sunday night pump right on schedule, just as the futures were down 4. Btw, does anybody know why oil didn't rocket up along with gold and the market?

By MarketWatch

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said Sunday that the U.S. central bank should continue buying mortgage-backed securities and other assets longer than currently planned, according to an interview with Dow Jones Newswires. Bullard, who will become a voting member of the interest-rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee next year, told the newswire that the Fed's asset purchases should continue, albeit at a slow pace, past the first quarter of 2010, when it is due to end.

"I have advocated to keep the asset-purchase program open but at a very low level, and wait and see what happens, and as information comes in about the economy we can adjust that program while the federal-funds rate remains at zero," Bullard was quoted as saying.

Bullard also said the Fed has yet to decide the program's fate. "As long as we are at zero [percent], we'd be able to send signals to the markets about what we are thinking about the economy, and how much accommodation the economy needs at various points, by adjusting the asset purchases," he was quoted as saying.

The U.S. dollar slipped against the euro and yen during Asian trading hours Monday, a movement that Dow Jones Newswires attributed to Bullard's comments.

The euro recently traded at $1.4983, up from $1.4851 late Friday in New York, while the greenback fell to 88.88 yen from 89.00 Friday.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
350zCommTech said:
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said Sunday that the U.S. central bank should continue buying mortgage-backed securities and other assets longer than currently planned
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Yup, this is pretty much guaranteeing the bearish dollar trade. Prop up everything, including home prices until home prices come back. And those crappy housing starts #'s from a week or so ago, that everyone freaked out about... that really means less supply and a quicker recovery in home prices.
 
SPY weekly, it's not just consolidation at high base/holiday week, its right between the train tracks of the upper resistance line... the slow stochs are leaning to the bullish arguement.
 
fedgolfer said:
SPY weekly, it's not just consolidation at high base/holiday week, its right between the train tracks of the upper resistance line... the slow stochs are leaning to the bullish arguement.
Click to expand...

If we close this week's candlestick near or on that resistance line... next week's candlestick opens on a breakout with price of the SPY really not going anywhere. Perhaps this is why many options traders think why so many calls to the long side were heavily purchased by GS... heard that tidbit on the weekly wrap up on Think or Swim. Something to think about going into December and the IFT juggle. Thoughts?

This is why I have been aggressively leaning to a breakout, but willing to bail so quick if it falls under.
 
fedgolfer said:
Perhaps this is why many options traders think why so many calls to the long side were heavily purchased by GS... heard that tidbit on the weekly wrap up on Think or Swim. Something to think about going into December and the IFT juggle. Thoughts?
Click to expand...

Rather than go with a rumor that may not be able to be verified; I have looked at various ETFs puts and calls for December compared to the existing price, and see a more nuetral market. For example:
GE trading at 16.12:
104,233 open interest at 17.00 for calls (where open interest is the highest by price increments), and 95,740 open interest for puts at 15.00

USO trading at 38.43
calls 7647 open interest at 40
puts 1137 at 38

F trading at 8.84
calls 71684 at 8.00
puts 42034 at 7.00

Of course more work is needed. As an analysis idea, one could look at open interest for a number of stocks and ETF's, determine the up or down bias, and then take the contrarian view for what will happen on OPEX week. I have thought about this - just no time to do the analysis. Yahoo has all the options information.
 
Uptrend said:
Of course more work is needed. As an analysis idea, one could look at open interest for a number of stocks and ETF's, determine the up or down bias, and then take the contrarian view for what will happen on OPEX week. I have thought about this - just no time to do the analysis. Yahoo has all the options information.
Click to expand...

Cool, thanks for the info. don't do too much analysis, i'm sure GS and the other broker dealers have many ways/and other exchanges to purchase these option contracts that the public can and will NEVER see. If they want us to see it, there's a reason. Personally, we know they will benefit more from a bull market then a bear market... pumping it up over that weekly SPY resistance line is a cheap way to ensure that line will become support... a much higher level of support then those potential gap fill areas well below it. This ensures a longer and quicker measured bull move... keeping many of the s&p companies cash rich.
 
here's zoomed in snap shot of the great wall of resistance... it's the rail road tracks heading down from the upper left corner... today's price action puts us right back in the sweet spot. Notice the slow stoch is BACK TO BEING EMBEDDED... bulls want an embedded stoch above 80 and we've got it.
 
here's a video from July how the big boys are taking advantage of fear and news releases using the index futures... in this case crappy housing #'s....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rERwTfn2l_Q

This guy isn't one of the "big boyz", but one can assume that if this guy purchases and scalps 20 contracts, the real big boyz are making millions by getting any and every fear discount they can muster and feed their inside guys on the news desks... I think Friday's action was an amazing day for futures traders and a GS wet dream.

Also, the /ES is slightly different than the SPX or SPY and actually showing a breakout above the long-term bearish resistance line. something to ponder, huh?!
 
FAS, XLF or financials are in a breakout of the bearish trendline back to the 10/14 candlestick, if it holds above this line, its onto the top bollinger next... great indicator and was the laggard holding SPX in its flag/recent trading range... this could be it... Birchy is happy i'm sure. $tran/iyt may give us another confirmation signal today or tomorrow. More cowbell!!!!
 
fedgolfer said:
FAS, XLF or financials are in a breakout of the bearish trendline back to the 10/14 candlestick, if it holds above this line, its onto the top bollinger next... great indicator and was the laggard holding SPX in its flag/recent trading range... this could be it... Birchy is happy i'm sure. $tran/iyt may give us another confirmation signal today or tomorrow. More cowbell!!!!
Click to expand...

Here is the chart:
View attachment 7417

The green line are a forming wedge. Wedges usually break to the upside, but not always. The yellow horizontal line is a price support near 75.65 forming a descending triangle with the upper green line. Descending triangles are bearish. So far today FAS has reached 77.43, just poking a pin through the upper negative force green line going by at 77.00 However, this is not a breakout -yet as FAS is trading well below the upper green line at 75.28, and is breaking below the descending triangle. Markets can poke pins without breaking out. Trade carefully!
 
Uptrend said:
Here is the chart:
View attachment 7417

The green line are a forming wedge. Wedges usually break to the upside, but not always. The yellow horizontal line is a price support near 75.65 forming a descending triangle with the upper green line. Descending triangles are bearish. So far today FAS has reached 77.43, just poking a pin through the upper negative force green line going by at 77.00 However, this is not a breakout -yet as FAS is trading well below the upper green line at 75.28, and is breaking below the descending triangle. Markets can poke pins without breaking out. Trade carefully!
Click to expand...


Thanks for the 411, UT, already in it. I like the 2 month chart on the 30 & 15 min candlestcks. the double rail resistance line makes a good visual. Then, change the chart while keeping the trendlines on the daily on the 6-month... you'll see a nice support line from the shadow of the 7/8, 11/2 and 11/27 candlesticks while price action is showing possible support at the 20 DMA/mid-bollinger. But I have a tight stop since GS is still in a 2 month falling wedge... but there's a game being played in there as we speak.
 
I will admit that FAS looks like it wants to breakout. Since July the lower line on the wedge has 4 touches, and today the top line on the wedge has four touches. I believe the usual formula is 4 touches on the bottom, 3 on the top line and #4 on top should be the breakout. The wedge is tightening; perhaps one more touch on the bottom line and then surge or a pause in the market and surge later today. The MACD is still below the zero line and the RSI is still below 50, but not by much. When the MACD gets above 0 and RSI above 50 the chances for a breakout increase. Another way to play FAS would be to wait for the breakout and then buy on the backtest of the broken trendline.
 
Uptrend said:
I will admit that FAS looks like it wants to breakout. Since July the lower line on the wedge has 4 touches, and today the top line on the wedge has four touches. I believe the usual formula is 4 touches on the bottom, 3 on the top line and #4 on top should be the breakout. The wedge is tightening; perhaps one more touch on the bottom line and then surge or a pause in the market and surge later today. The MACD is still below the zero line and the RSI is still below 50, but not by much. When the MACD gets above 0 and RSI above 50 the chances for a breakout increase. Another way to play FAS would be to wait for the breakout and then buy on the backtest of the broken trendline.
Click to expand...

XOM/oil, GLD, XLF, QLD, all showing some heavily bullish stuff this AM... my trusty heatmap is showing financials is still the laggard, but yesterday was a big day. I'm not advacating anybody buy FAS... just saying to keep an eye on financials, because they're heating up on this wave versus the previous waves in this range.

http://finviz.com/map.ashx
 
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