Fedgolfer's Account Talk

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If the bond boyz are mopping up the popped bubbles, we are definitely on a real upswing.

Pimco buys Abu Dhabi debt... Gross and El-Erian sure were talking up bonds for months and trying to scare investors away from equities... even well-after the golden cross in the SPX. Sounds to me like they were raising cash for accumulation purposes, huh?!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQzAdRQS8eRs&pos=4

more importantly, read the last part about a more flexible yuan in 2010... when that dollar gains traction, it's going to be huge. Definitley don't want any parts of the I fund the day they announce China adjusts the peg.
 
coolhand said:
Haven't heard from you in awhile. What's your view for the rest of the month?
Click to expand...

If i had to make a call now, I'd say up for the remainder up the month in equities. As for the $, I think UDN will revisit the 6 month bullish trend line that it broke to the downside... it may revisit that line on this upswing, then kiss the channel goodbye. That will put in a perfect H&S if it fulfills that right shoulder and goes back to ~$28.50'ish (that means inverted H&s for the dollar index). Then, stocks will fall but just to the long-term bearish trendline in the SPX and find support there and we resume the bull channel move... that may take a couple months to play out, but seems the rational call at this point. Just my opinion.
 
my internal sensors are going berserk... telling me bearish dollar trend will breakout to the upside for the remainder of the month to a gap fill area. Many indicators telling me that. Including the SS for a stock/santa rally :) Want to go all I fund, but I'm a chicken sh*t!
 
Went into partial short term cap preservation mode a couple days ago.

Gap island reversal in UDN, but heading up to upper bollinger. Will have to keep close eye if the gap island holds in the medium-term, may backfill after testing upper bollinger.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UDN&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p87917931588

This bull is strong. If we get a couple of the clunkers to misfire on earnings before the big dawgs start reporting, we may get a nice entry.

Will keep a close eye on AGG because it looks like a H&S could be forming, but if price goes north in the short term -- possible doule top... lots of what ifs in AGG that will give hint on equities.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=agg&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p87917931588
 
INTC and then JPM reporting. Then next week a host of big XLF cohorts report. I imagine there will be duds and studs in the mix. Don't think we've seen the highs for the months though... more money may flow from bonds to equities. Haven't ruled out another start of a trading range as in mid Nov. But we're off the support line of the 2-week SPX measured bull move; and the QQQQ seem to be finding support on the mid-bollinger/20 dma. May be early :)

IFT'd into 100% C-S-I mix.

if this h&s proves to hold in AGG ... equities may skyrocket:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p03871113900
 
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p02501200778

The recent measured bull move in the S&P has had two quick waves... maybe the third (which we're in) will be a short term euphoric pop that will be good to sell into. This coincides with MLK seasonality and the potential chart pattern in AGG. Didn't use my IFTs wisely this month... I would like to be 100% in equities going into a new month... looks like i'm going to have to take some profits before EOM.
 
Thinking bigger picture and looking at the SPY monthly candlestick going back 10 years (my software at work doesn't allow me to go more the 15 years back, and there not another long term cycle out of bear market)... AFter the bear market of 2000 thru 2003, on the montly candlesticks, price never bothered to re-test that broken trendline and went all the way up to the bollinger and then just bull-flagged for about 7 months... not sure how other bull moves out of bear markets look. But if you use that as a guide, we're only in the third monthly canldestick above the mid bollinger and have a long way to go to test the top.
 
Now that makes me feel a whole lot better. I've been spending money that I don't own playing the margin game. Still trying to buy myself into happiness.
 
Margin rocks if we use it right!

And let's lay the cards out for the marcro game... as far as I can see, as long as the Fed & Treasury keep rates low and buy MBS, people will be putting money into equities and not parking it for minimal gain (especially with the threat of inflation looming)... stocks will run, get the gains while you can -- any news prolonging this investment thesis is good for stocks... that's why the retail numbers didn't scare anyone. also, a slowly improving job market is exactly what the doctor calls for until the dollar trade truly seperates itself from the equity rally. If it was too hot, we all know what that would do in the short term.
 
Historically, anytime the dollar has been at the 80 level that has been bullish for stocks. Nothing can hold Ferdinand back when he gets the smell of good earnings.
 
JTH said:
I'm calling the dollar in a downward channel (previous failed bull flag)
Still, we're due for a bounce wouldn't you think?
Click to expand...

Heck yeah! Short-term, I can see maybe one more pop on euphoria and then a pullback. Just looking at they companies reporting earnings in the near term, it looks like they could all be classified as sell-the-news. Medium term & long term, i'm buying the dips though. How about you?
 
fedgolfer said:
Heck yeah! Short-term, I can see maybe one more pop on euphoria and then a pullback. Just looking at they companies reporting earnings in the near term, it looks like they could all be classified as sell-the-news. Medium term & long term, i'm buying the dips though. How about you?
Click to expand...


I'm having a hard time staying in my system. I really want to exit to the side and look for a lower re-entry point. This month's gains are above average and I'd hate to see it escape, plus I'd like to accumlate more shares and get ahead of the I-fund.

The Dollar's Bull flag appears to have failed. The Euro's bear flag appears to have failed. The Yen's price channel appears intact. Everything looks too good and this has me worried.
 
I have a hard time buying that this is a medium term top... yes, bank earnings have shown that the consumer is going to be slow getting out of this mess, but the big banks are going to be making money in other areas. I think we've seen the bottom for banks and any pullbacks are intended for the big boyz to accumulate, in fact they're trying to scare the lil guy out of his shares and find a discount and of course short squeeze the naysayers. This may be the last quarter we see a mixed bag for the JPM, WFC, BAC, etc... getting in at a good price these next few months means, to me, means that there's no way this is the top of the bull run. I think this mornings weakness in equities is more about a strong dollar after the MA election stalls the health debate. Even the verbiage coming out of bank earnings is tamed down and hinting at revenue in future earning qtrs.
 
Good pts, I think we may see a pullback sometime in the next 5-6 weeks. I am thinking a 23.2% fibonacci retracement to the 200 ema around 1020. Then the market advances during the spring to the SPX 1230 area. Now or later is the question.
 
Uptrend said:
Good pts, I think we may see a pullback sometime in the next 5-6 weeks. I am thinking a 23.2% fibonacci retracement to the 200 ema around 1020. Then the market advances during the spring to the SPX 1230 area. Now or later is the question.
Click to expand...

I think under normal market conditions a large retracement like that would easily be possible and the smart money bet. But with Central Banks, broker dealers and govts basically being all on the same page... the fact that so many retail players and hedgers go short at all these "key levels" makes a 100+ point retracement less likely, the charts have shown that those shorts have had to become unwilling buyers... that combined with dip buyers that will come in and buy on all those "key levels" makes me think that support will be bigger than we assume and an easy discounted entry less likely. Not saying you're right/wrong, just throwing out my opinion on the ebb&flow of bear/bull shifts. SPX price going above the gr8 wall of china, to me, means that it will serve as support on the weekly candles... if, we even get there in January.

$tran just hit its bottom bollinger on the daily's... check out the next day candlesticks after the bolly hit. Will that pattern hold true? I'm hoping :)

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRAN&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32027735735
 
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