Fedgolfer's Account Talk

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A Girl Scout told me to sell the S-fund when EMW hits the upper double-rail. We'll see... looks like wishful thinking.
 
Frixxxx said:
http://www.gazette.com/articles/girl-91827-cookies-sale.html

Seems like the girls are a little greedy taking everything after the first $0.87 !!!!!!:suspicious:
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Not really, if you think of them as the advertising/distribution and sales end of the business - plus this isn't donuts - the bakers/producers are a seperate business so the Girl Scouts don't make any money off of production of the product - it's all from the sales.
 
I don't know anything about the Girl Scouts, but I'm glad they're learning some business accumen even though its costing me a few cookies a box :)

As for the markets, i'm already 100% C&S funds... trying to manage my IFTs the best I can with a long month of trading still ahead. With Summers/Volcker telling the markets to expect a bad jobs number due to the storms, etc, they're kind of manipulating the indices like Jobs does with Apple stock. And, if today on the SPX closes up (and still showing that gap up), I think we'll get a pop up to ~1130'ish, then maybe down to fill the gap area on the jobs data (ADP or Labor, I don't know), but then is gets bought up again after the jobs data. That just gets us through week 1 and maybe Monday, so I'm not sure I want to burn an IFT there. Especially since the potential for a double top looks technically feasible. Should I burn an IFT in the next day or two knowing late March seasonality is mostly bearish, or hold on for a double top and save that last IFT buy for the last two weeks? Decisions, decisions. I'm not as bearish med/long term... actually bullish even though I think we're in a trading range with a slight bullish tilt as illustrated in my EMW chart a couple posts above. Maybe I should just lock it in... it would be nice if TSP could mail a loan over night so I could do something with that money before end of month if I'm w/out another IFT-buy.
 
Silverbird said:
Not really, if you think of them as the advertising/distribution and sales end of the business - plus this isn't donuts - the bakers/producers are a seperate business so the Girl Scouts don't make any money off of production of the product - it's all from the sales.
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More sarcastic than anything Silverbird...I buy my share from the little entreprenuers every year....one box of thin mints for every week of the year 52*4.00=$208.00 from me.....They're my wife's favorite!

Happy Wife, Happy Life!:cool:
 
Frixxxx said:
More sarcastic than anything Silverbird...I buy my share from the little entreprenuers every year....one box of thin mints for every week of the year 52*4.00=$208.00 from me.....They're my wife's favorite!

Happy Wife, Happy Life!:cool:
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:laugh: thin mints for my wife also every year Long shelf life, when put in the freezer. Dang, what do (Sarcasm alert!!!) those greedy little buggers, put in those mints that wife's like so much :D
 
Going 100% G for today's IFT.

Wish I didn't have to use up an IFT-bullet this early in a looooong month. Expecting the EMW chart to stay in the range bound trading channel... so, hopefully i'll get a chance to buy in lower. Would love to see the spx get above 1150 in a hurry though.

Regarding the 10 year SPY weekly and monthly chart, there was some congestion in this area in 2004 (it eventually formed the right shoulder of an inverted H&S). But, the weekly chart shows it had three dips of more than 5% (from March '04 to Aug '04). If this congestion area repeats itself, we have already seen one dip of more than 5% and are currently running a 12% pop in the S fund since that Feb '10 low. I'll try to post a chart when I get home tonite.

May use IFT #2 to buy some C/S/I if the markets fade the jobs data >2%.
 
fedgolfer said:
Going 100% G for today's IFT.

May use IFT #2 to buy some C/S/I if the markets fade the jobs data >2%.
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1. Want to jump with you but:
2. I think the job expectation numbers are set to show improvement.....

I'm 2.1% for the month......trying to keep from flipping a coin today.....

2 IFTs ...what to do...what to do!:cool:
 
Frixxxx said:
1. Want to jump with you but:
2. I think the job expectation numbers are set to show improvement.....

I'm 2.1% for the month......trying to keep from flipping a coin today.....

2 IFTs ...what to do...what to do!:cool:
Click to expand...

Yeah, not comfy on the IFT decision.

Regading the jobs, Sommers and Volcker are on Bloomberg/CNBC etc, parralleling the Feb Snow storm of 2010 to the 1996 storms which showed spikes in the jobless #'s in the 100,000's of thousands. Because they've prepped the markets, I think the big boys will still use it to scare the retail folk to buy in for a quick trade to: gap-fill then buy up to sell the double top.

For IFTs, my head is telling me to get out... but my gut is saying stay in and save the 1st IFT for selling the SPX double top. Because, after going over last year's chart & IFTs, and where I could have sold some short-term tops, my mistake #1 was greedy at the top (we're on a +12% run in EMW). That's just me though. I think any larger sell-offs, even if they do get to be more than 5% will get bought up and we'll look back at these next few months as nothing but a bull-flag.
 
Frixxxx, $tran is putting in some bullish-umph right now, I can see a contrarian pop to the upside to hit the upper bollinger. And the Vix is showing some room on the lower bollinger to support that too.

If you save that IFT for the double top then you can probably buy in later in the month and create yourself an extra IFT-buy going into April if you hold... always nice. Downside, you already know too. Just talking out loud :)
 
fedgolfer said:
Frixxxx, $tran is putting in some bullish-umph right now, I can see a contrarian pop to the upside to hit the upper bollinger. And the Vix is showing some room on the lower bollinger to support that too.

If you save that IFT for the double top then you can probably buy in later in the month and create yourself an extra IFT-buy going into April if you hold... always nice. Downside, you already know too. Just talking out loud :)
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Staying in for now....see my thread LINK:blink:
 
Anyone psyched for the Masters?!

The rollout of 3D is only on a selected number of holes though. If you haven't seen 3D on the new TVs yet, it's amazing. Better than in the theater. Although, wearing 3D glasses is a bit goofy and pricey for a family of 4!
 
PessOptimist said:
DirecTV customers (at least me) are being given free viewing of "Masters Experience". Channels 701-705 here.
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Lucky dog... 3 of the 3D holes will be Amen Corner. There's a course by me called Renditions and each hole is mapped after a famous hole. They have Amen Corner down to the giant scoreboard on #11, and the bridge on #12... more importantly the topography of the hole is almost perfect replica, even down to the breaks on the green. Obviously they don't recreate the stimpmeter though... that would be fun.
 
clester said:
I just wish Tiger wasn't there. :(
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I'm still a fan of Tiger's golf game. I've seen him in person a few times and it's absolutely ridiculous what he can do under pressure. Although, I'm a fan of most pro golfers. I'd be happy to see, Tiger, Phil, Ernie, Jack, AK, McIlroy, Couples, Duval, etc win. Too bad Bubba Watson didn't qualify, it would be fun to see him shape those bombs around some of the holes... even though his swing is kinda ugly.
 
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