Fedgolfer's Account Talk

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The VIX closed below the lower 2-standard deviation bollinger band yesterday. Once it closes back above it that produces a warning. It's only happened 4 or 5 times in the last three years and each time within a week or so there's a correction. The last time it happened was January 12th this year, then the 8% drop started a week later.

Something to chew on.
 
Tsunami said:
The VIX closed below the lower 2-standard deviation bollinger band yesterday. Once it closes back above it that produces a warning. It's only happened 4 or 5 times in the last three years and each time within a week or so there's a correction. The last time it happened was January 12th this year, then the 8% drop started a week later.

Something to chew on.
Click to expand...

very interensting, is this what you meant, Tsunami?

on the weekly, VIX is still above and hasn't triggered
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p93573331258

but on the daily, short-term, it gave the catalyst to look for the warning which hasn't been confirmed... do I have one of these right, or is this not what you meant? I'm a little slow and sometimes need the visual :)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p52078258335
 
JamesE said:
Does the 4% jump today produce the warning sign?
Click to expand...

I was reading too much into Tsunami's Vix analysis... I think he's talking the daily candlesticks and the BB (20,2)... not the standard deviation indicator itself. He's pointing out the daily candles closing on the 4/12 flashing the warning, as it did on 1/11, closing below the BB.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p02959966258

so the vix warning is saying be nimble the next ~5 days... try to avoid the quick downturn.

And the weekly ichimoku says to buy the indices back up as long as we stay below the cloud.

THANKS, TSUNAMI!!!
 
Yup, that's exactly it. Got it from McHugh's newsletter last night but I'm sure there's lot's of technicians that saw it. Once it closes below that bollinger band, then closes back above it, which it did today, now the clock is ticking for an "imminent" drop. With the excitement over Intel tonight a pop tomorrow might be a perfect opportunity to escape. I was looking to wait until Monday 4/19, which would coincide perfectly with the January earnings season peak on 1/19-20, but now I'm nervous and may bail tomorrow instead and leave the last pennies for the really brave folks. I'll still be looking for just a minor drop though, maybe down to 1175ish, then jump back in for the rest of the rally to about 5/20.
 
Keep up the great work guys, it sure makes my life a whole lot easier when I know someone's watching the things not on my radar. :)
 
I'm ridin' this one folks.

Folks are going to have to drag three year old data around to make earnings look poor. Too much work for the average analyst. Not enough data out there for the dumb money investor.

I think there will be a correction off a weeks to months long bump.

Then it will be ugly.

Maybe very ugly,.
 
IFT on 4/15 for 4/16

from 75% S fund & 25% C fund

to 70% G fund, 15% C, 15% S

VIX chart may turn and what appears to be a short term blow off top in $tran. I have a feeling the bull will buck hard again though, fundamentals starting to catch the tailwind that the technicals have had -- so i'm leaving a little in.

In my area, hearing lots of chatter of companies hiring and the partially employed getting back to fully employed. Housing prices on an upswing for sure too.

Hope to buy in soon, willing to chase like last time if the bull remains in trend.
 
Noticing some similar price action/sentiment/rxn to news in the current time peried in the main indices and the first two weeks of January:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p69180209539

In January, buyers were sucked in at the 1140-1150 range on some choppy topping action. I know, because I bit and was left holding the bag. I'm going to keep a good chunk on the sidelines and chase if we get price confirmation of a breakout to the upside. I'm thinking if the current price action is like January's, we'll know in the next 2 or 3 days. Currently, the chart aslo shows the trend has been broken, and then gone up and kissed it... maybe, goodbye -- as it did in January. Will remain nimble, because I have the urge to buy, buy, buy.
 
VIX chart is not agreeing with my assessment above...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p08473025252

With today's candlestick below the mid-bollinger (20 dma), chances of a double VIX spike (as in late Jan/early Feb) is greatly lowered. When VIX closes above the mid-bolly, and then follows it up with a close below it, it usually leads to a string of bullish candles for the indices and a string of VIX candles below the 20 dma on a declined angle.

May jump back in today near IFT deadline. Risk is -- if the VIX get backs above the 20 DMA then I have to bail/stop out, leaving me with only one IFT buy for May... i'd prefer to be holding stocks going into the first trading day of May.
 
Get in golfer, this thing ain't dead by a long shot! If we get one more good month out this rally, I'll make more $$ than all of last year!!
:):):)
 
FireWeatherMet said:
I got out of the G and into 50% C/50% S on the morning of the Little "Big" Dip.

Based on some of the choppiiness, I was looking to exit in the next day or two..lock in about 1.3% for the past few days. Do you think we'll see a real correction towards the 20-50 day EMA start soon...or was this news driven dip, just that?
Click to expand...

VIX spikes almost always lead to a change in trend or pattern. Major VIX spikes getting up to the 200 dma usually produce some deeper corrections, these current spikes, although they're testing the upper bollingers, are only testing the 50 dma. The VIX spikes in November looked bad, but only produced bull-flags in the indices (it didn't produce a meanigful change in direction, just sideways action, then a further pop). Based on that and other technicals, I don't think this move downward will be too severe. I'm buying back in at the lower bollinger or if the patterns prove to be bull-flags and not tops -- maybe even at this AM's IFT deadline. I'm trying to filter out the news in the trading because these stories (Greek/bank reg) have been with us for months, they just pop out of the woodwork on red candles because media needs a reason. Just my 2 cents. Set a mental stop though if this thing keeps going down past reasonable entry points. Good luck FWM... I always try to go into the new month fully invested so I essentially get two buys (especially if we're north of the golden cross). One thing I would be skeptical about is the pump on AAPL earnings and then the DUMP... that seems like a very common move by the big boyz... oh and ATCJeff bought in around the time you did, so it can't be all wrong, he's the smart-money on this board :)

VIX:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p21279208422

TRAN:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRAN&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p56827053566

s&p:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p61435342794

FOMC may revise language or remove "extended period of time"... I'm betting NO... may buy today since $tran and $emw are leaning to the bull-flag arguement
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
 
Last edited:
IFT'd 35%C, 50%S, 15%I

Think I will turn, but not for a couple days. Had to buy today though because I think a C&S jump will occur tomorrow. Hope to hold this going into May. Will bail if I'm reading the VIX & Tran & $emw wrong.

Good luck all :)
 
fedgolfer said:
IFT'd 35%C, 50%S, 15%I

Think I will turn, but not for a couple days. Had to buy today though because I think a C&S jump will occur tomorrow. Hope to hold this going into May. Will bail if I'm reading the VIX & Tran & $emw wrong.

Good luck all :)
Click to expand...

I'm pulling the trigger with you. :)
 
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