Fedgolfer's Account Talk

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nasa1974 said:
Haven't seen it yet (not one the wife would like to see). Heard it was a really good movie from friends that have seen it.
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When the credits rolled, I was surprised to see it was written and directed by a woman. She nailed it. Didn't have excessive hollywood mumbo jumbo.
 
Buying some banks today for a trade. All this selloff with the initial candlestick support at the start of the 11:40 bank proposal makes me think the lunatics got a hold of the asylum. This is all a proposal that has so much more time to evolve and get passed. Its a buying opportunity, imho. As for the indexes, seems like we're just testing the top part of Nov/Dec's SPX's flag... the re-test was a given at some time, hoping for support.

seems like a lot volume went from the big banks to the regional banks... but really, this is all in the proposal stage, not even a bill, not near passage.
 
Intrepid_Investor said:
Took me about 20 minutes to get my last trade on Fas. Never took that long before. Supply and demand? ;)
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How much was your order below bid? I won't ask how many shares you're trading, but that sounds very odd to take that long. If it was a market order, then your broker needs to go.
 
Bullitt said:
How much was your order below bid? I won't ask how many shares you're trading, but that sounds very odd to take that long. If it was a market order, then your broker needs to go.
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It was a market order and it was with Scottrade. It was a smaller friends account so it wasn't much at all. Since Fas dropped towards the close, didn't really cost anything. But still....................
 
weekly charts trumping daily charts... the leading indicators look good with bullish upside while AGG and VIX look bearish:

VIX:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$vix&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27119276566

AGG (double top):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=agg&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27119276566

S&P:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$spx&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27119276566

$emw:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$emw&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27119276566

EFA:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=efa&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27119276566

TNX:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$tnx&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27119276566

UDN (bearish embedded... smell peg adj or the beggining of Euro turn on a carry trade):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=udn&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27119276566



media is 99% short term news/hype... i'm inclined to believe the correction was a move by the big guys to accumulate. Facts are that they did. Fundamentally, the Fed is and will be easy... and although the stimulus has been mostly obligated, the vast majoirty of it has not been spent or reflected in GDP.
 
Went 100% G at the IFT cutoff yesterday... should have gone F for a couple days -- at least that's what i'm thinking at this pt in time.

Anyone thinking of buying the base of the right shoulder in a potential inverted H&S in the S&P? I think it will have a slight bullish tilt and may find support in the 1085-1090 area. Maybe off the 20 day simple MA/mid-bollinger.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p97096129330

This may coincide with bullish support found at the 20 and/or 50 EMAs on the $tran and the Diamonds... which will leave us waffling the bands of the old great wall again:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$tran&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p97096129330

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIA&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p97096129330

The vix has some overhead resistance which may add some support to this arguement:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$vix&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p97096129330
 
The news links and videos posted on this MB the past two days was about 100% negative news and/or financial info. Literally, almost everything I read and watched was so negative. As a contrarian though, these free sites/blogs/vids are based on news releases or leaks & opinions that get the majority leaning the wrong way. Ask yourself this... if huge financial services companies make millions on independent research, why would they leak their best info for free? They never do... only to get people leaning in the wrong way.

Go USA, squeeze the sh*t out of the shorts that want to see it fail.

went 40% C, 60% S at yesterday's IFT deadline... so i'm a little bullish biased :)
 
fedgolfer said:
Go USA, squeeze the sh*t out of the shorts that want to see it fail.
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That is one of the most idiotic statement I've heard in a while.

I can understand that you want to be bullish since you're in the market, but please, control yourself.


And no, I'm not short anything. Enjoy your gains.
 
350zCommTech said:
That is one of the most idiotic statement I've heard in a while.

I can understand that you want to be bullish since you're in the market, but please, control yourself.


And no, I'm not short anything. Enjoy your gains.
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it's funny how people can post "let it burn" or "fall like a house of cards", i'm not bashing you, just the people that are obviously naked shorts and fear spreaders... which there are plenty on this site. Pushing negativity and being an obstructionist 99% of the time shouldn't be the only voice on this board.
 
Without giving too much info away, there was a famous trader who recently was writing about the success rate of bull moves in one of his subscription Letters (which I don't get but read in the waiting room a T Rowe), when there are 50 point tails/shadows on the TRANSPORTS this increases bullish probabilities and upside dramatically. I can't remember the success rate but it was above 85%. Also if the close is above the previous close it has a success rate above 90% to continue for multiple candlesticks... but those are rare (i think the most recent one was in July, and the indices skyrocketed from there). As i'm typing this we're close to getting there and this will coincide with Tom's market meltup theory.

Just eyeballing the $tran chart, looks like we'll get arguably the 2nd 50 pt bullish tail reversal in this bull move off of 3742 low... i can't remember the exact criteria but there may be 4 candlesticks in this move that meet it. I will be curious to see how this unfolds... almost sounds too easy to be true, but looking at the chart, it's past performance looks pretty solid. Tom, please delete this if it violates the MB proprietary rule.

Personally, I'd believe in a guy that distributes info out in his given name, NOT some blog where any j*ckass can post under a Tyler Durden alias. That is not investable to me, nor a help to anyone on the MB if nothing further is given, it just adds to the stew of market uncertainty.
 
fedgolfer said:
Personally, I'd believe in a guy that distributes info out in his given name, NOT some blog where any j*ckass can post under a Tyler Durden alias. That is not investable to me, nor a help to anyone on the MB if nothing further is given, it just adds to the stew of market uncertainty.
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I would like to apologize to you and everyone at TSPTalk for posting that article. I had no idea who the author was. I wish you had brought this up right after I posted his blog, but that's alright. I should have done my homework. I didn't make the connection until I read you post above.

Thanks for setting me straight.
 
350zCommTech said:
I would like to apologize to you and everyone at TSPTalk for posting that article. I had no idea who the author was. I wish you had brought this up right after I posted his blog, but that's alright. I should have done my homework. I didn't make the connection until I read you post above.

Thanks for setting me straight.
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350, no apology needed, but appreciated. Again, my passive aggressive reaction (sorry about that) was aimed not even at that particular post but at some of the links we post that inadvertantly set off potential reactions. I'm sure there are some TSPtalkers stationed abroad that have limited time and ability to check into some links/posts, so when they see these things from well-trusted members, it may get them to burn an IFT. Although zerohedge has posted some great timely stuff (i think they were rumoring BSC before anyone) it also seems Tyler Durden, or the many faces of... post a good amount of hearsay.

Anyway, I hope you take this exchange more as two Bear fans deliberating the suckiness of Bob Avelini versus Erik Kramer instead of a real beef!!!!
 
I have a new contrarian indicator for long-term investing: the Girl Scout Thin Mint indicator.

There are only 14 thin mints in my sleeve of cookies... 28 total thin mints in a box. I'm pretty darn sure there were a couple more per sleeve a couple years ago. I'm sure this is Little Brownie Bakers, LLC way of countering crappy margins. But, I'm sure they'll get an earful from the Girl Scouts and the buyers of thin mints. This is BS, and in my opinion a bottoming formation in the overall picture of Thin mints. I want my two or three Thin Mints per sleeve back!!!

Have thin mints makers been consulting with car people?!?!??! :)
 
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