fabijo's account talk

[fabijo]

Let me make tomorrow's prediction:

The absolute value of tomorrow's gain/loss percentage will be positive! We will definitely not have a flat day.

 

[Guest2]

Hope your right my brother. Futures look bad but could easily reverse by some good earnings reported. Fear is so hard to manage !

 

[fabijo]

Hope your right my brother. Futures look bad but could easily reverse by some good earnings reported. Fear is so hard to manage !

Well, since I was talking about the absolute value of the percentage gain/loss, then a negative return is positive and so is a positive return.


But it is starting to look like we might actually have a flat day. Craziness.

 

[fabijo]

Hmph. Now the monkey is pointing to the I Fund, but it is still hard to say. Every time I've listened to the monkey for the I Fund like this, the dollar rebounds. As I look at the monkey's numbers, the S fund is still more volatile than the C Fund, so I'll still wait in the S fund until it looks like the monkey settles in on one fund. Right now it is still kind of teeter tottering between the S and I.

 

[James48843]

I think your monkey may be right towards the "I".

Remember, today Merryl Lynch came out and said their subprime exposure and values were much worse then they said even a few weeks ago, and Countrywide is supposed to report this week. If Countrywide also writes off huge losses, then the dollar's value may react negatively, offsetting your fear of a dollar rebound.

My prediction is that the dollar is going to tank some more.

Good luck!

 

[fabijo]

I think your monkey may be right towards the "I".

Remember, today Merryl Lynch came out and said their subprime exposure and values were much worse then they said even a few weeks ago, and Countrywide is supposed to report this week. If Countrywide also writes off huge losses, then the dollar's value may react negatively, offsetting your fear of a dollar rebound.

My prediction is that the dollar is going to tank some more.

Good luck!

Thanks for the input, James. I'll have to see about tomorrow. If you are right, then there could be a +FV on the I fund tomorrow if the dollar tanks in the afternoon. If that is the case, I may hop to I on Monday. Either way, this method of just sticking to the most volatile fund can really hurt. That's okay. Pain is weakness leaving the body.

 

[airlift]

Fab,

You wrote last night that "there could be a +FV on the I fund tomorrow if the dollar tanks in the afternoon. If that is the case, I may hop to I on Monday." The dollar seems to be tanking heavily already at 4:12 am ET. If it tanks too early and not in the p.m., it might rebound on Monday. I will appreciate your follow up before 12 so that I may consider whether to go the I-Fund, or to C, or S. Thank you.

 

[fabijo]

Fab,

You wrote last night that "there could be a +FV on the I fund tomorrow if the dollar tanks in the afternoon. If that is the case, I may hop to I on Monday." The dollar seems to be tanking heavily already at 4:12 am ET. If it tanks too early and not in the p.m., it might rebound on Monday. I will appreciate your follow up before 12 so that I may consider whether to go the I-Fund, or to C, or S. Thank you.

That's true. It could always rebound. That would be good if Monday is the day I plan on entering the I Fund - unless the rebound lasts a couple of days. I'm pretty much waiting to see how today plays out to make my decision for I fund or not I fund. I'm still torn about how to time my entry. Should I wait for the dollar to do a rebound to catch the I fund on a low day, or should I just go and anticipate a further decline in the dollar?

All I can say is... I don't know a thing about markets except that they are volatile and do unexpected things plenty of times. That's why I enjoy the roller coaster of being in stocks. I'm all in stocks for a long time. No G or F for me.

 

[fabijo]

After a long conversation with my monkey, I'm sticking with the S Fund. When I mentioned going to the I Fund, the monkey started running rampant around my house, breaking my dishes and throwing poo.

 

[fabijo]

Now that I have been using a monkey for so long, the name monkey is getting old. I am considering writing another program called TSP Gypsy.

 

[charmed855]

Now that I have been using a monkey for so long, the name monkey is getting old. I am considering writing another program called TSP Gypsy.

LOL! Make sure it doesn't steal your wallet. :laugh:

 

[fabijo]

LOL! Make sure it doesn't steal your wallet. :laugh:

Oh yeah. I should have thought of that.
You can't trust gypsies. I was hoping to trust the gypsy to steal from the stock market for me. :worried:

 

[KCinKC]

Obviously, monkey and the gypsy have some personality. Why not give names to the monkey and gypsy?

 

[fabijo]

KCinKC, I'll have to think about what to name them!

 

[fabijo]

It looks like everyone is so certain about the rate cut on Wednesday. Since it looks like 92% or more traders are already betting on the rate cut, my guess is that the dollar is a little lower than it should be. When the rate cut is announced as expected, the profit taking will occur bringing the price of the dollar back up a nudge - at least for a day or two.

It just looks like too many people are certain on this issue. If us little peons can be certain on the issue, then the big guys have already been certain on the issue earlier than us.

As for me, I'm just sitting 100% S fund.

 

[fabijo]

Gypsy Warrior still sticking with the S Fund.

 

[fabijo]

It looks like everyone is so certain about the rate cut on Wednesday. Since it looks like 92% or more traders are already betting on the rate cut, my guess is that the dollar is a little lower than it should be. When the rate cut is announced as expected, the profit taking will occur bringing the price of the dollar back up a nudge - at least for a day or two.

Hey, it looked like I may have been on to something! At least in the extreme near term.

Dollar moves off lows after Fed rate cut
http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/31/markets/dollar_fed/index.htm?postversion=2007103114

 

[fabijo]

I ain't scared. Sticking with 100% S, just like my Gypsy Monkey Warrior says.

 

[FogSailing]

We have nothing to fear...but fear itself...and the possible lack of a dead cat..

 

[fabijo]

We have nothing to fear...but fear itself...and the possible lack of a dead cat..

Yup! If it just shoots up and up without the double bounce, people will be too afraid to enter the markets.

These are pivotal times right now. I'm of the bias that we are about to have some rip-roaring, sky rocketing, mind boggling bull run soon. I notice the board is getting more posts with people being agitated, anger-prone, and sensitive. Definitely an indicator of market movement.

I noticed that James posted in the I fund about the possible 20% drop in a day because the protections have been removed. It goes the other way now, too. With so many automated trades, all it takes is the right combo of price movements, volume, currencies, interest rates, full moons, and whatever else these quants are using to send in a sudden surge to give us some HUGE gains in a day. I mean, we could have 10 to 15% moves in a day (either up or down) if they keep these protections turned off. Before the big ups happen, we'll probably have some wild swings until you hear the average Joe talking about how bad it is to be in the stock market.