fabijo's account talk

[fabijo]

Just a quick history reminder here.

In July 1998, the S&P hit a peak but dropped more than 17% to hit a double bottom between September and October, wiping out any gains realized since January of that year. During that time, the Fed lowered rates 3 times (September, October, November). By the end of the year, the S&P 500 was up more than 26% of the year's open. That's just a simple buy in January 1998 and hold through December. It doesn't factor in all the DCAs along the way. Sure, if you timed the market right, you could have made out like a bandit - get out at July high and back in at the October low. The problem would be that most of us would have thought the party was about over and the market was due to keep declining. I mean, look at the run the market had from December 1994 until then - there just had to be an end to this! But it took 3 years before the S&P 500 revisited the lows that were presented in September and October of 1998.

 

[Birchtree]

Thanks for that warm and fuzzy history lesson. Think about this: 1519 x .39 = 592. 1519 + 592 = 2111 by the end of 2008. Providing lightening strikes twice. The C fund is the place to be fully invested - just close the door behind you but don't lock it.

 

[GGal]

FAB

Where did you say to eat in NYC? We did eat at Tavern on the Green, and were going to eat at Union Station Cafe, but the wait was too long....

GGAL

 

[fabijo]

FAB

Where did you say to eat in NYC? We did eat at Tavern on the Green, and were going to eat at Union Station Cafe, but the wait was too long....

GGAL

Tavern on the Green? Did you go to a wedding or something? I never went there, but it looks very nice.

I've never checked out Union Square Cafe, but I really like thier menu!

The restaurants I would've suggested would mostly be a couple of notches down from those very fancy ones, but the food is delicious. My wife and I like going to different restaurants of different cuisines. Just let me know what cuisine you like, and I'm sure my wife and I have eaten it at a good place. She's the one who will remember what we ate more than I will.

 

[fabijo]

The pain addicted monkey is still addicted to the S Fund.

 

[fabijo]

The pain addicted monkey is still addicted to the S Fund.

That's still what the monkey wants. He's not good at figuring out any kinds of patterns or saying when the down days will be, but he is pretty good about saying which is most volatile on a monthly basis. It's probably the riskiest approach, because it will have you in the fund that has more downside possibility during corrections.

 

[fabijo]

Thank the funky monkey. That was some nice action on the S Fund today! Well, it could happen again, or it could get wiped out next week. That's the way it works, I guess. I'll just stay in.

 

[Birchtree]

We got low volume and it seems like nobody wants to own this market accept you. Are we destined to sell everything to the Canadians and the Chinese? What happens when the volume makes a show - PARABOLIC is what I say.

 

[fabijo]

Wow! I just looked revisited the 5 year S&P 500 chart. We still have about 50 points to go before we start bumping the top again. I'll post it when I get a chance.

 

[fabijo]

We got low volume and it seems like nobody wants to own this market accept you. Are we destined to sell everything to the Canadians and the Chinese? What happens when the volume makes a show - PARABOLIC is what I say.

Sell it to the Chinese. THEY'll give us volume! :nuts:

 

[airlift]

Fab,
Thanks for your suggested link. http://keepass.info/

 

[fabijo]

Fab,
Thanks for your suggested link. http://keepass.info/

No problem, airlift! Have you used it?

 

[fabijo]

The wild monkey is still clinging to the S Fund.

 

[airlift]

Fab,
Honestly, I haven't used it. Eventually I will, but right now I'm following your footsteps of keeping a separate entry page which I carry with me. I don't leave it at the office for reasons explained by Paladin. I don't know the wiesel (Robert Goulet), but I know he is for real. There is always someone waiting for one to make mistakes. Take care!

No problem, airlift! Have you used it?

 

[fabijo]

S Fund is still the monkey's choice. Also, here's the 4 year chart of the S&P 500. It doesn't look too bad.

 

[fabijo]

I'm gonna try my hand at predicting the market:

Tomorrow's S&P 500 closing price will NOT be exactly 1551.13.

I have a great record at predicting what the lottery numbers will NOT be, so I figure I can do the same with the stock market.

 

[hessian]

Hah! Paladin,
That's the best one I've read yet! Love it!
Now if only you could adapt your system to give us each day's results by end of each day thru next week (next Fri evening)? How about adapting system to predict results after the the FOMC mtg?:laugh::nuts:
VR

 

[fabijo]

I'm gonna try my hand at predicting the market:

Tomorrow's S&P 500 closing price will NOT be exactly 1551.13.

So far, my prediction is proving to be correct. I'll make the same prediction for tomorrow. Tomorrow's S&P 500 closing price will not be exactly 1551.13.

I do, however, predict an up day - a nice up day (or at least that is what I want)!

 

[James48843]

Nice job- it ISN'T exactly 1551.13 - You were absolutely right!

 

[fabijo]

Looks like I was half right last Friday. The price was not exactly 1551.13. But we sure didn't have a huge up day. Maybe you can use me as a contrarian indicator!

I guess the bull is trying to shake me off, but my monkey is clinging tight to the horns and riding the WILD bull ride up and down. Let's go S Fund. Where's that rebound?