fabijo's account talk

[fabijo]

Speaking of bugs, I just got hit with another math bug a couple of days ago. I spent much of Friday and almost all of Saturday working on some ideas with growth rates and crazy numbers within Excel. I think this math thing hits me about twice a year or something.

So, as I was playing with the numbers for the S&P, I couldn't help but come up with some different views on market behavior. I somehow felt I should research population growth to get a better idea. I found some great info that I'll be using in the next few weeks to test some little theories running around in my head. An interesting fact about population growth is that there is an inherent limit to the size of the population (limited resources and all). Now I am wondering if there is eventually a price limit to the stock market. Sure, it could be years into the future, but if there is a limit to the world's population due to resources, it shouldn't be surprising to find a limit to how much money is generated.

Anyway, to anyone interested in reading about the math and seeing how even a simple formula can generate chaos (much like the sudden ups and downs of the market) here's a great page on population growth info:

http://www.arcytech.org/java/population/facts_math.html

 

[fabijo]

I'm torn between the C and S charts. The monkey is saying C Fund, and an initial look at the two charts tells me C Fund, also. My first eval of the S is indicated by the red line, which makes the S fund look a little overbought. But then I rechecked the S Fund and added the blue line. I also just checked the bullish percents of the S&P and the NASDAQ. Neither of them are anywhere near overbought. The NASDAQ only has 39% bullish percent, compared to the S&P which has almost 52%, but it had the bigger increase today. It seems to be a 50/50 shot between the C and S. I'm not even going to speculate with the I Fund and the dollar movements bound to happen surrounding the European Central Bank's decisions this week. I'll stick with the math monkey and stay in the C Fund. There has to be a reason why a higher percentage of the S&P 500 stocks are getting bought.

S&P 500, 10 day chart:

DWCP, 10 day chart:

 

[fabijo]

Cheapest Stocks in Almost 12 years Greet Investors
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aarWFL7RVxwY

U.S. investors are returning from summer vacation to the cheapest stock market in almost 12 years, and some of the biggest fund managers say they're ready to load up on shares of technology, energy and industrial companies.
...
The slump in stocks was ``driven by psychology rather than by fundamentals or valuations,'' said Darst, who oversees $728 billion. ``The bull market can continue.''

 

[fabijo]

You want to know why there are record numbers of shares being bought back by the companies? How about because they're getting ready to sell to foreign investors.

Record Takeover Fees Buoyed by Companies Unaffected by Subprime
...
Takeovers by overseas buyers account for 26 percent of all U.S. acquisitions, the most in four years, helping insulate Wall Street bankers from the drop in leveraged buyouts. The value of announced private-equity transactions fell to $19.2 billion last month from $87.4 billion in July and $131.1 billion in June, Bloomberg data show.

The pace of foreign purchases ultimately might match the volume of domestic deals, as chief executive officers outside the U.S. diversify their holdings, said Steve Bernard, head of M&A research at Robert W. Baird & Co. in Chicago.

New Industrialists

``It's not inconceivable there would be parity,'' Bernard said. ``You'll probably see the number continue to rise, barring the government getting involved.''

Foreign acquirers announced plans to spend more than $281 billion on U.S. deals in the first eight months of 2007, exceeding the total in six of the past seven years. In 2000, the figure was $349.4 billion, the most in the previous decade.
...

 

[fabijo]

Just popping in to say the monkey math still likes the movement found in the C Fund.

 

[airlift]

Fab,
Seems like your monkeys are on the right track. I am in the I fund, but the C-fund today was the one that lost least!

 

[fabijo]

but the C-fund today was the one that lost least!

True, but the monkey math I'm quickly using just goes for the steepest slope on an MACD Histogram. It doesn't matter which direction at this point, since the monkeys are interpreting this as a long term bull market. So, they usually end up pointing to the fund moving fast in either direction - up or down. It just got lucky yesterday that the C fund lost the least.

 

[fabijo]

The last few times I did this, I got burnt. I'm going 100% I Fund at tomorrow's close. I made a quick simple monkey for the current market that makes much fewer IFTs, but still basicly uses similar rules as the other monkeys. Here goes nothing, jumping head first into the I Fund.

 

[fabijo]

Of course now the monkey is changing its mind. Here I go. Blindly back to the C Fund. I hate mindlessly following something I created, especially something following such simple, basic rules. Shouldn't my creation be following me???

 

[RunningFool]

It's the frankenstein principle. You create something and it takes over your life. Kinda like kids, but you gotta love them.

 

[fabijo]

It's the frankenstein principle. You create something and it takes over your life. Kinda like kids, but you gotta love them.

Maybe I should call it Monkeystein.

I should have waited for at least a two day confirmation before getting into the I Fund. What a waste of a one day move!!

 

[fabijo]

Looks like my volatility monkey just gave a switch to the S Fund. I feel safer going with that than going with its I Fund calls. I guess I'll go make my IFTs.

 

[fabijo]

The little monkey still says S is more volatile. I'll stick with it then.

 

[fabijo]

Volatile monkey check - still S Fund.

 

[Remo]

Volatile monkey check - still S Fund.

Volatile monkey is looking good this AM. Does he have the staying power to make it through the rest of the day?

 

[fabijo]

Volatile monkey is looking good this AM. Does he have the staying power to make it through the rest of the day?

I hope so. But since he only looks at volatility, he could care less what direction that volatility is in.

 

[merlin]

Volatile monkey is looking good this AM. Does he have the staying power to make it through the rest of the day?

The Monkey is on viagra.

 

[fabijo]

The Monkey is on viagra.

Since the trading day lasted more than 4 hours, the monkey should seek medical help.

 

[dell]

Forget that 4 hour stuff. My Viagra got caught in my throat and my neck was stiff for days.

 

[fabijo]

Forget that 4 hour stuff. My Viagra got caught in my throat and my neck was stiff for days.

Yikes! This discussion is pushing its limits.