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F Fund
- Thread starter The_Technician
- Start date
Show-me
Well-known member
Yes, I agree. To paraphrase a article I read "there is a long laundry list of negative data and the market continues upward". I don't get it.:embarrest:
vectorman
Active member
Well the gap down on the AGG chart is filled and we now are back up to the top of a downtrending channel of a possible head and shoulders pattern. Will there be a breakout to the upside of the channel tomorrow or will more inflation concerns in the Fed minutes be the focus. If the focus is on slowing housing and sub-prime, that may be a short term boost to stocks and bonds. Trader Fred says a big move is near. The herd is jumping into the G fund, with a few trying the F tomorrow. The last time that happened, Apr 2nd, there was a big move to the upside for stocks the next day. Who will be right this time....the herd or the contrarian thinkers??? Other quick point...On Apr 12th 2004, the market was positioned to retest its recent highs and both stocks and bonds took a hit that lasted awhile.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=87276&postcount=3
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=AGG ( notice the volume on the AGG chart for last week, Apr 2nd. I wonder if that was for the exit or the enter door?)
http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulders.htm
http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulderscharts_.htm
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku...._analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_t
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=5y
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=87276&postcount=3
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=AGG ( notice the volume on the AGG chart for last week, Apr 2nd. I wonder if that was for the exit or the enter door?)
http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulders.htm
http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulderscharts_.htm
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku...._analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_t
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=5y
Last edited:
Birchtree
Well-known member
"Notice that the 30-year Treasury bond's price has broken below its 10-day moving average, its 50-DMA, and its 200-DMA, and in the process has traced out what appears to be a massive head and shoulders "top" formation, implying higher interest rates." We all know what that means.
http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm Saut, 4/9/07 "Welcome back Mr Bond"
http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm Saut, 4/9/07 "Welcome back Mr Bond"
:laugh:
I don't want to digress from the F fund discussion, but I was thinking the same thing about Fred. He called a big move, his charts were indicating it would likely be a move down, but that one sub-model kept the system in the market. This is where I would lose my discipline and get out, but then again, that's exactly why my returns have lagged the system's since last summer.
vectorman
Active member
Link to Bloomberg Bond news
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=a8jo7_rCNGzs&refer=bond
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=a8jo7_rCNGzs&refer=bond
vectorman
Active member
10 yr tres Y so far holding at the top of its channel. May start ranging lower toward 4.6. Means higher price for F fund.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^TNX&t=5d
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^TNX&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
http://money.cnn.com/markets/bondcenter/
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^TNX&t=5d
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^TNX&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
http://money.cnn.com/markets/bondcenter/
FUTURESTRADER
Active member
i agree, trending higher past few days, but looking like a potential head fake..so, yes...yield maybe lower, good for F 
vectorman
Active member
i agree, trending higher past few days, but looking like a potential head fake..so, yes...yield maybe lower, good for F
Nice chart. The last couple of days I think was just a little profit taking because of the uncertainty of the GDP report. There is also a wedge at work, so at some point there will be a breakout...direction unknow at this time, that might play into your head fake theory. Now investors are processing the inflation factor and the risk vs reward between stocks and bonds. I can't get over this feeling of a repeat of 2004 selloff that effected both stocks and bonds. Hope I'm wrong.
This morning's ISM report seems to be hitting the AGG hard but it doesn't look like bond yields are up all that much. Strange. It might be a good day to move from G to F if you are on the sidelines. The 50-day moving average is acting as support here and I think the selling in AGG seems exaggerated.
I was surprised to see that too. Not sure what is driving the action here...
I'm not sure what to make of it. The problem is certainly not that the economy is growing too fast, and inflationary concerns (as the higher than expected ISM may indicate) are secondary to the potential slowdown. There are many still saying recession in the 2nd half of 2007. The AGG sell-off makes for a nice buying opportunity for bonds in my opinion.
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