F Fund

[vectorman]

Relative Strength

The so-called relative strength index for the 10-year note futures contract over a nine-day period, on a scale of 0 to 100, fell below 30 yesterday for the first time since April 13. Readings below 30 indicate notes are ``oversold'' and likely to rise, while readings above 70 indicate they are ``overbought'' and likely to fall.

The 10-year yield closed at a two-month high of 4.76 percent on April 13 and declined more than 10 basis points over the next three days.

To contact the reporters on this story: Elizabeth Stanton in New York at estanton@bloomberg.net ; Annie Pinkert in New York at apinkert@bloomberg.net

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=a388a6jjo76Q&refer=bond

 

[tsptalk]

Wow, bonds are getting hit again today. Stocks will benefit from a Fed rate cut but I think bonds are getting oversold and are a good buy over G fund for the next month.

 

[vectorman]

Glass half full, attitude.

The AGG finished the day with a long black candlestick.

"After a long decline a long black candlestick can indicate panic or capitulation."

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:introduction_to_candlesticks

Also, the VIX finished at a support line. If it moves up monday that may be a negative to sideway action for stocks. But if it breaks through to the downside, stocks will look good for a while longer.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=VIX

 

[nnuut]

The "F" Fund,,,,,don't you just love it? Like a fickle woman!!!!!!!

 

[vectorman]

The "F" Fund,,,,,don't you just love it? Like a fickle woman!!!!!!!

Nice one nnuut. lol


Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes closed Friday at 4.8 percent, as investors moved cash into stocks and away from safe-heaven bonds.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=aNETtlVi5vHg&refer=bond

No fear buying stocks at this level. No talk of downside risk. No more talk about nose bleed levels. No worries about China. People may say Bearish, but their actions say Bullish.

Interesting comment from, Arthur Cashin, UBS Financial Services director of floor operations.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=326078121&play=1

 

[GUCHI]

how is it that the F fund chart shows above the prior day, but there was no gain ??????

 

[350zCommTech]

The G is going to pay tomorrow but the bargain of the day is the F fund. It's taking a beating.

 

[weatherweenie]

The G is going to pay tomorrow but the bargain of the day is the F fund. It's taking a beating.

My only concern with the F fund would be getting into a buy low, sell lower situation.

 

[350zCommTech]

The G is going to pay tomorrow but the bargain of the day is the F fund. It's taking a beating.

My only concern with the F fund would be getting into a buy low, sell lower situation.

Yeah, and with my lack of luck with the F fund, it means I'll be selling lower.

Btw, what happened in the bond market today? Yields shot up after the Chicago PMI, but eventually finished just slightly up. Could 4.9% have been the ceiling for the 10 year yield? In hindsight, I probably should have just gone to the G for the sure penny.

 

[350zCommTech]

Yeah, and with my lack of luck with the F fund, it means I'll be selling lower.

Btw, what happened in the bond market today? Yields shot up after the Chicago PMI, but eventually finished just slightly up. Could 4.9% have been the ceiling for the 10 year yield? In hindsight, I probably should have just gone to the G for the sure penny.

This morning's ED was just about perfect. The idiots on CNBC will be cheering "Goldilocks!!" Why do I keep making the same mistakes??

 

[budnipper1]

My only concern with the F fund would be getting into a buy low, sell lower situation.

That's what I did...I should put the F fund on my "ignore" list. That AGG chart on Yahoo today looks like my last EKG...

 

[LA_Guy]

I should put the F fund on my "ignore" list.

I second this motion. I hate F fund... Market up, F fund down.. Market down, F fund down.. No more F fund for me.

 

[qibovin]

I second this motion. I hate F fund... Market up, F fund down.. Market down, F fund down.. No more F fund for me.

I agree with this. I feel a heckuva lot better getting spanked today in equities than I would if I were getting this Fμ¢&'d in the "safe haven."

 

[LA_Guy]

I would think this F@#$%! F-fund would benefit from the rise of the 10-Year treasury note. No???

 

[tsptalk]

Unfortunately for us, bond prices (F fund) go down when bond yields go up.

 

[tsptalk]

So much for a Fed rate cut. This is strange.

 

[LA_Guy]

I know very little about bond stuff so hope you guys don't mind if I ask some questions to educate myself a little bit more on bonds.

So when the F fund goes up??
And when the bond yields go down, does F fund go up then?

 

[tsptalk]

Yes - yields down = higher bond prices and higher f fund.

 

[vectorman]

Free Daily Analysis from stocktiming.com. Go to link at bottom to see chart.

The stock market has been dropping on inflation fears and rising bond yields in the past few days.

On Monday, we looked at the long term chart for 30 year bond yields. At that time, the
TYX's relative strength had gone above 70 ... which only happened only twice in the last
8 years. For both of those times, a 70 RSI was a sign that it was overextended. Those
levels turned out to be the short term peaks on yields and they retreated afterwards.

This week, the RSI on the 30 year bond yield continued to rise and went up to 75.15 yesterday.
This is an extremely high level which makes the odds favor that the 30 year bond yields will
pull back between now and Friday. Friday is when the CPI numbers will be announced.

A reversal on the 30 year bond yield would give a sigh of relief for investors and could be
a short term positive factor for the market's upside.




http://stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

 

[vectorman]

PPI comes out tomorrow and CPI data on friday.

Definition
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a measure of the average price level for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods received by producers. Why Investors Care ......

......"The bond market rallies when the PPI decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the PPI posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits."

http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/repo...ndex/year/2007/yearly/why_investors_care.html

Definition
The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation. Why investors care....

.... " Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. "

http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/reports/US/EN/New_York/cpi/year/2007/yearly/why_investors_care.html

I added this post not to keep anyone from going into the market, but give info has to what news is coming out. The reward or loss may be great depending on how this inflation news is received. The next two days will be a big mover for bonds which will also set the tone for stocks. Inflation is the key word. If inflation is contained the rally in stocks continues, but if the numbers show inflation heating up watch out for a sell off. Bond yields have really climb laterly and have broken through a long term resistence level. Are they a leading indicator of the news to come? Also stocks are doing good this morning, but how do you think they will be positioned this afternoon ahead of the two biggest pieces of inflation data to come out the next two days?

Take note of the VIX as well. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=VIX