F Fund

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The_Technician

The_Technician

Active member
I researched my theory on my F fund discovery yesterday. Good news, I validated the theory, it hit for 99% of the time back to Dec 05.....bad news .....its has a tricky personality.....

We all have exhausted ourselves to find the key to this bugger, and sooner or later it had to fall, so its going to be touch and go for a while until we get in a groove....I believe we should be able to hit the fund 75% or better of the time at this moment.... I'm going to start out with the obvious time to get in.....and I will mention one more thing, the fund is very tricky on a daily basis, so this isn't easy.....there will be periods that it just wouldn't be a good time get in unless you play her daily on some speculation of what it will do tomorrow....

I mentioned yesterday that investing in the fund could be at a bad time....I'm actually expecting a reprieve before it is the right time to get in....so returns for a few days could be to the plus but I would expect a pull back....I'll be waiting for the obvious buy in point...I hope it hasn't already past it and continued to climb from there....I'm speculating that could happen.....so lets see what happens here over the next couple of weeks....maybe now we can make it happen....;)
 
We reached a very high impulse in the fund today highest as far back as April 04...(I didn't look any farther)....this would indicate the fund is probably topping out at this time...

This would possibly mean that the fund will be taking a rest and another buying opportunity could be in the mix soon....

I may or may not be available next week.......watch something will happen and I won't be able to make any money because of my absence from the market....happen to me twice this year already....
 
tech..."more matter and less art" hmm?

F fund 'may' have some FV applied to it based on (AGG) or, just as much, the Ten year yield. 10 yr yield (bond traders) looking for a pause at next month's Fed meeting, since 10 yr yield bumped up to close to fed rate of 5.25 but has pulled back since then, hence the F fund has held it's own and trended up. I agree, it may be topped out as AGG is overbought and 10 yr yield is oversold, both can continue in those conditions.

I'd love to hear a little more specifics on your 'theory'..and your..'discovery'??!!..lol. Really, tho..help us all out, especially newbies, and try to contribute something a little more tangible. I do appreciate your efforts and passion.
 
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FUTURESTRADER said:
tech..."more matter and less art" hmm?

F fund 'may' have some FV applied to it based on (AGG) or, just as much, the Ten year yield. 10 yr yield (bond traders) looking for a pause at next month's Fed meeting, since 10 yr yield bumped up to close to fed rate of 5.25 but has pulled back since then, hence the F fund has held it's own and trended up. I agree, it may be topped out as AGG is overbought and 10 yr yield is oversold, both can continue in those conditions.

I'd love to hear a little more specifics on your 'theory'..and your..'discovery'??!!..lol. Really, tho..help us all out, especially newbies, and try to contribute something a little more tangible. I do appreciate your efforts and passion.
Click to expand...

Well the way it goes is like this....more "matter" only steers the boat in the general direction....we can keep up on that with the news....but steering the boat over the waves in that direction is the "ART"....it doesn't "matter" in general.....huh made a funny....that is where this is going....if you want, you keep us up on all the matters....but I'm going to try to steer the boat over the waves while we're in the right direction.....its a true ART.....
 
OK lets start on this F fund thingy.....looks like its topped out for a bit and should be losing more than gaining for the near term......like I said this isn't easy and it is almost a day by day monitoring catastrophe..:confused: ....so the fun starts here.....
 
You will have much more fun in the "F" fund when Burntankle pauses the rate increases.:) Who said that? I said that!:D
 
I wonder if Friday was "buy the rumor"... then Tuesday would be "sell the news" for bonds? :eek: That's just a short-term thought.

I saw bond yields were down big Friday morning (bonds up) so I went to the G fund to take my F fund profits. I thought we'd see the G fund penny Monday, but unfortunately we got it Friday.
 
Bonds love just the thought that interest rates will stall and go down, look at Friday. :D Yeah, where is Carnac when you need him? :D :D
 
Apart from fluctuations and any short term reaction to the Fed decision today, the long term action in bonds has to be dominated by the fact that bond yields - ALL of them - are significantly below the overnight rate.

I don't know how this will get addressed, but it can't go on. Either yields must rise, or the fed must cut rates or lending will come to a halt with really bad consequences for the economy. Bond prices, and the I fund, cannot assume a steady uptrend until this gets fixed. For now, pressure is on yields to rise and prices to go down.
 
Guess you all figured out that the F fund is taken a break....if you haven't, u will figure it out soon enough.....F fund will probably go this way for a couple of weeks.... so don't get your shoes tied in a knot....and trip along the way.....
 
The_Technician said:
Guess you all figured out that the F fund is taken a break....if you haven't, u will figure it out soon enough.....F fund will probably go this way for a couple of weeks.... so don't get your shoes tied in a knot....and trip along the way.....
Click to expand...

Long term she looking pretty setup.....but you never really know how shes gonna react in the short term.....what the heck its a toss up at the moment, being positive when everything seems right as it is now....but if the feds see inflationary pressure.....:blink:
 
I think the "F" fund is now in a place to become a much better capital preservation vehicle-

When the interest rates were climbing, the "F" fund was exactly where you DIDN'T want to be.

But now that interest rates seemed to have leveled off, this might be a great opportunity to set some aside and watch it grow, with much less risk than stocks, and more potential upside than the "G".

What do you think? Is it time to start putting some green into "F"?
 
James48843 said:
I think the "F" fund is now in a place to become a much better capital preservation vehicle-

When the interest rates were climbing, the "F" fund was exactly where you DIDN'T want to be.

But now that interest rates seemed to have leveled off, this might be a great opportunity to set some aside and watch it grow, with much less risk than stocks, and more potential upside than the "G".

What do you think? Is it time to start putting some green into "F"?
Click to expand...

EXACTLY!! :D If the FED will watch their mouths and not scare the "F" away again.:o
 
I kind of monitor the F-fund and the ETF [TLT] over at stockcharts.com. Since about the end of June, early July, those bond funds have been trending upwards according to their 50 day moving averages.

I think it's wise to have a Plan B at this point. I know we are in a (recovering) bullish period presently, hopefully it will continue. However, we are also in a real energy crisis. There is a lot of consumer pain at the gas pumps. Ford has an excessive back up inventory, so much so they are going into production cuts (some 14 plants by 2012). Remember, the F-series was their bread & butter! It's down 28%. GM and other are also feeling the pain. Keep in mind all this has a ripple effect for all the sub-supporting businesses.

Take a look at Wal-Mart [WMT], check out it's trading prices (notice The July 2006 drop).

In yesterdays presidential press conference, Dubya said that the economy was strong and the direction was to stay the course, basically.

What we need to remember is who buys the gasoline for his vehicles. And what was the advice he recieved prior to the war with Iraq.

Hey, that could be Tom's next trivia question! What's the MPG on a Presidential Limo?

Plan A, I guess is to stay the course with the current bull market. But, and, I agree, we definitely need to be researching some alternate funds, that fit into a Plan B.

Regards
 
Some good points Spaf, Yes I'm thinking both ways, just have to watch and be nimble. The Cease Fire in Lebanon doesn't look like it's doing too well. We have to watch that one close. If it fails BAM, oil prices back up to $78 in a minute and were back where we started, with the War, Iran, Ethiopia and Where are the HURRICANES? :mad: Hey Dave! Dave?:notrust:
 
Loose Lips sink the market, again!:mad:

Moskow Just had to say something. Now it's the interest rate and inflationary worries again. Not really good for the "F" fund.
 
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