F Fund

[The_Technician]

The yield on the 10-YEAR TREASURY NOTE has filled that 3rd gap I talked about Wednesday. This is a very important juncture for bonds. Will yields drop now that the gap is filled, or do they move up toward the old highs? That may be what determines what happens to stocks next week.

Good point Tom,

The Crystal Balls have the F going down for a while....so stocks can continue on....

Carnac

 

[tsptalk]

The Crystal Balls have the F going down for a while....so stocks can continue on....

F down, meaning bond yields going up?

 

[The_Technician]

F down, meaning bond yields going up?

Yeap......

Carnac

 

[350zCommTech]

This is bull ****! Yields were dropping on weaker than expected retail sales, but they have now reversed. Higher than expected consumer sentiment was bull ****. That makes no sense. They surely didn't vote with their pocket books. And of course, markets are continuing their assault. This has to be a suckers' rally.

 

[vectorman]

This is bull ****! Yields were dropping on weaker than expected retail sales, but they have now reversed. Higher than expected consumer sentiment was bull ****. That makes no sense. They surely didn't vote with their pocket books. And of course, markets are continuing their assault. This has to be a suckers' rally.

That's why I hate the F fund. You still might get a penny out of it today.:blink:

 

[350zCommTech]

That's why I hate the F fund. You still might get a penny out of it today.:blink:

I hope you're right. I stayed in the F fund waiting for the eventual flight to safety. It's not happening today, but maybe we get it on Monday?

 

[vectorman]

Should be interesting for bonds this week. PPI, CPI news and Bernanke speaks. 30 yr T chart appears to be working on a pennant. Lets see if it breaks to the upside.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=TYX

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pennant.asp

 

[qibovin]

Should be interesting for bonds this week. PPI, CPI news and Bernanke speaks. 30 yr T chart appears to be working on a pennant. Lets see if it breaks to the upside.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=TYX

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pennant.asp

Am I correct in concluding that if this chart "breaks to the upside," the F-fund will fall off a cliff?

 

[vectorman]

Am I correct in concluding that if this chart "breaks to the upside," the F-fund will fall off a cliff?

I'm not saying the F fund is about to fall off a cliff, but if, I say again if, the chart breaks to the upside, yield goes up price goes down. The chart is showing a decreasing wedge pattern. Looks like a bounce off the 10yr T 5.59 today, next test may be the upper resistence between 5.11 to 5.13.Something will have to give soon. This will only effect those who want to go long, short plays may still get a little $ like ebbnflow moves since he uses previous patterns. No guarantees.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^TNX&t=5d
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=TYX
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pennant.asp

from a free site, info may be changed soon...

http://stocktiming.com/Thursday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

 

[Griffin]

The TNX is flirting with dropping below 5.0 yield. If it does, the F-fund could make significant moves worthy of consideration as an investment strategy and not just an alternate Capital Protection fund. Something to keep in mind.

 

[James48843]

"F" is looking strong again.

 

[offtrack]

I'm not too fond of AGG holdings. Anyone have an opinion on how closely our fund tracks the AGG and how possible future bond downgrades would affect us?

 

[James48843]

Question 1: AGG tracks almost exactly with "F", based on past share pricings. (98% or more of the time). The only time I've seen differences over the past year or so is a very slight variation which can be attribtured to the "rounding off" of the price one way or another.

Question 2: I have no idea what "future bond downgrades" would do to "F" price.

 

[offtrack]

Here are links on AGG and Barclay's US debt fund holdings

http://www6.ingretirementplans.com/custom/540.pdf

http://www.ishares.com/fund_info/holdings/holdings.jhtml?period=d&symbol=AGG

 

[buda]

Moved 50% into for Wednesday

 

[Fivetears]

Treasurys Dive as Fed, China Rattle Bond Market
Treasury prices closed sharply lower Wednesday, sending yields higher, as traders continued to digest the Federal Reserve's latest statement on interest rates and on growing speculation that China may start selling U.S. government bonds. A rally in the U.S. stock market also drew investors away from the bond market. The market moved lower on renewed concerns of Chinese diversification out of dollar assets, the Fed's as-expected statement, and lack of any major buying motivation.
http://foxnews.smartmoney.com/bn/ON/index.cfm?story=ON-20070808-000809-1619

 

[tsptalk]

Bond yields are deep in the red, yet the AGG is down. I thought I understood how this worked.

 

[350zCommTech]

Bond yields are deep in the red, yet the AGG is down. I thought I understood how this worked.

Not to worry. That AGG charts is worthless for day to day use. I have the F fund up 2-3 pennies right now.

 

[tsptalk]

Do you use another source for a quote? Someone had mentioned a TLT or something like that at one time.

Thanks

 

[350zCommTech]

Do you use another source for a quote? Someone had mentioned a TLT or something like that at one time.

Thanks

You're going to laugh at this because it's a very simple process, but it works. All I do is look at bond yields such as $TNX or the bond yields page at cnnmoney.com. I take the yield changes of the 10yr and/or 30yr and divide by 2.

For example, right now, the yield change for $TNX is -.82. .82/2 = .4 or 4 a 4 cents gain. But the change in the 30yr is only -.48. .48/2 = .2 or a 2 cents gain. If the yields are +, then it's a loss.

So, my guess right now is a gain of 3-4 cents for the F fund.