F Fund

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weatherweenie said:
If the 2+% drop in the nikkei 300 carrys over to the US markets, the bonds should do well, right?
Click to expand...

I suppose so, moreso as the cliched 'flight to quality' if the US markets continue to do poorly, also less inflation pressure...one talking head this weekend suggested the fed may LOWER rates at the next meeting.
 
Yields have reversed and are now up. Not sure what's going on. Foreigners selling?

Anyway, the F fund has given up all the gains and might even lose a penny.
 
What's with the volatility in the bond market these days? Today for example, the yields were up in the morning, then down, and now they are up again. If they stay up, the F fund could lose 1-2 pennies today.
 
It's the battle between a slowing economy and inflation. Inflation is head by a nose today, but the slowing economy has position along the rail. Down the stretch they come...
 
It seems like the inverted yield curve is trying to un-invert. The 30-year yield also looks like it wants to keep moving higher which might make things tougher for the AGG and the F fund.
 
Clips out of recent Bloomberg report..http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=aStuWRwikoy0&refer=bond

Holiday Trading

Ten-year yields exceeded their 200-day moving average for the first time since Feb. 2 by trading as high as 4.75 percent. The yield is a ``natural support level'' for the market, said Walter Burke, technical strategist at Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York. Technical analysts make predictions based on chart patterns.

The next major support for 10-year notes is at 4.79 percent, Burke said. A line connecting the June 2006 high of 5.25 percent and the January high of 4.91 percent intersects today's date at that level, he said.

Treasury volume was lower than average every day this week as many traders and investors took vacations coinciding with school closings for the Passover and Easter holidays. Bond traded ended at 11 a.m. yesterday at the recommendation of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.

Three of the seven biggest moves in the benchmark 10-year note during the past 10 months occurred on employment report days. Employment reports, usually released on the first Friday of the month, have come on Good Friday three times since 1990, and ``movements in yields were more exaggerated than the historical and expected measures would indicate,'' according to an April 4 report by primary dealer Credit Suisse.

Treasuries had their biggest decline this year on March 9 when the February employment report was stronger than forecast. The 10-year note's yield rose 7.5 basis points.

I had said in another post that bonds may slide lower a few more days, but if the 10 yr is at a natural support level it will be interesting come Monday to see if there is a gap up ( refer to 10 yr Y chart, opposite of AGG) or return to 4.70% 10 yr Y to wait for more data. I'm still looking at a head and shoulder pattern in the AGG chart that started Sep 2006 ( left shoulder) , and now the right shoulder will soon be complete. There is also a gap in mid Aug 06 that never got filled. There was also a gap down Mar 1st 06 that took 6 1/2 months to fill, so there really isn't any certain time limit to see these gaps filled. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=AGG

10 yr Y chart...http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^TNX&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Once inflation escapes from its ' Contained Box ' both stocks and bonds will take a hit.
 
Don't you think that FED SPEAK this week will effect the "F" with the likelyhood of a lower rate change looking bad? :D
 
If the market does drop I think the F will gain based on the pattern from July of last year when the F was below the sma 20, 50 and 100. Its practically identical to the charts we have now. All thats missing is the next big drop in the market. I'm a pure novice at this though, I'm just shooting in the dark, pure speculation. But I'm following TSP GO as well. I just waited a couple more days before TSP GO went into the F. But the F fund did treat me very well during the month of February F was +1.53, C -1.95, S -0.26, I +0.18.
 
nnuut said:
Don't you think that FED SPEAK this week will effect the "F" with the likelyhood of a lower rate change looking bad? :D
Click to expand...

I'm talking about this:

Later in the week, investors will have other news events to parse, including scheduled testimony Wednesday on market discipline from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and remarks on Tuesday from Dallas Fed leader Richard Fisher.
The minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be released on Wednesday. (more)http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/...S&guid={C6026B02-88CC-4592-81A8-374E59DBEF5B}
 
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