Even more on the I fund

[smedlap]

imported post

Thanks Market Timer. I agree with your assessment. You were quick to type a very good analitical assessment that only market players have an understanding of.You addressed the bumps,follow-on opportunities, when to get out and the timing so hard tooften achieve in TSP - 1 week before February when the market traditionally goes stale.You also indicated you are playing with a team. Welcomed input and advice and hope you post often!

I have a foot of snow around me which is fun for about 2 months:^.

 

[Guest]

imported post

No worries!

As you can see if you jump ship late Jan each you with the big part of your TSP you will do well. Of course 2003 was a little different with the retroactive tax cuts to 1 Jan 03 that kicked off the bull market rally in a bear market (they normally last 10 months at a whack). I can not make the chart go back any further so you can see the pattern but the buy in November in masse and sale late January is a good "timing" method. Just so you know tax cuts normally last for 18 months until the market head down again and we are coming up to that period.

The party starts to end the end of January. Hold and hope is not a option in a down market.

Then it is fun to ride the waves up then down. Just like we did this year. I forgot who followed my advice but we had fun when the people 100% invested when the market was heading down were acting. Panic!

Also be advised (as the miliary types say). We have a pattern that appears the next big down turn will be off the table.

I told Leo the Lion about the 3 Peaks and Dome. Research on that and get ready to step aside while the uniformed and the "system" people take loses.

The informed and researched folks will do well. Hopefully that is us .

smedlap wrote:

Thanks Market Timer. I agree with your assessment. You were quick to type a very good analitical assessment that only market players have an understanding of.You addressed the bumps,follow-on opportunities, when to get out and the timing so hard tooften achieve in TSP - 1 week before February when the market traditionally goes stale.You also indicated you are playing with a team. Welcomed input and advice and hope you post often!

I have a foot of snow around me which is fun for about 2 months:^.

 

[Guest]

imported post

Wanted to add...2003 was shaping up as the same pattern. January run up due to IRA funding and then hedge funds heading for the door and turning the lights off to end the party. Lemmings starting the new year off with a nice fat lose after a month and a half.

Fund your IRA (I know it is hard to wait - because we are brainwashed) late to early August. You will get the most shares for your hard earn coinage.

Have a great day!

Bill

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

smedlap wrote:

03 facts I, S and C funds gained .75, .10, and .46 respectively lastDecemberwith essentially a dry period up until Dec 16. From there, that's where they made their respective gains. The cosolidation blip was a -1% shortterm loss. OK Tom, this is where you come in with your advice!

I wassurprised to how well the C fund did over the S last December. The small cap January effect usually creeps into December. If we only get a 1% pullback, that would be incredible, and welcome. But we've come a long way in a short time and I'll prepare for worse, even though I will stay heavily in stock just in case I'm wrong. Like I said, I won't go less than 50% stocks while the psychology, valuation and monetary numbers are this bullish.

Tom

 

[smedlap]

imported post

Thanks Tom and good morning. No question, we are all not "over exuberant", butmuch more happy about the markets recent strong run up after a long stall period. Good advice. Your dailymarket postnext week willreflect yourtransfer decision. For me, it will probably be Wed COB as last year's datareflects a gradual decline in all 3 stock funds 4 days preceding, I fund was less dramatic.

 

[smedlap]

imported post

I think I am going to take that breather in the G fund with my transfer effective COB. I don't like the news and it will be harder tobuild on bearishearly week bearish sentimentwith OPEC - Friand FOMC - Tues as near-term attention getters. So I'm gone short term and 100% into the G fund. Good luck!

 

[coolhand]

imported post

Smedlap, we are on the same wavelength. After I saw the news this morning I did the same thing. Plus I'm on travel this week and can't manage my account easily.

To all-

purely defensive measure for me. Gut call. I can play again in few days. I'm not a psychic... guess I just want to get some sleep . Good luck.

 

[smedlap]

imported post

Coolhand, enjpy that travel. A gut call as you say and I think one we can easily sleep on. I will watch attentively but will do nothing until certainly Tuesday, next week. I have made my play. For those that stay in stocks, I hope the market serves them well and they make losts of money.

 

[puertorico]

imported post

f gain 2 cents
c-loss 1
s-loss 3
i- loss 3 not bad at all .Let's see tomorrow :shock:

 

[Guest]

imported post

Coolhand, travel easy and be safe.

I was concerned the market would have been more vicious than it turned out. Take a penny, leave a penny...

 

[cowboy]

imported post

I thought I was out of the I fund but I quess not. I looked today and I am still 100% I fund. Which I really don't care as I think the I is going up again. My plan was to pull out then jump right back in anyway depending on the market today. I did my update close to the 11:00 am cut off and it confirmed and everything but it doesn't even show that I made a change. This is not the first time this has happened to me. I guess we have to live with this system it is better then what we had. I must of did something wrong and it did not take. Oh well it's a bull market and I fund will go up some more I think. Looking at the close this might be okay for the week again!:^

 

[coolhand]

imported post

Chaplain wrote:

Coolhand, travel easy and be safe.

I was concerned the market would have been more vicious than it turned out. Take a penny, leave a penny...

Thanks Chaplain. I thought so too.

Got to go, see you all in few days.

 

[smedlap]

imported post

Chaplain. A penny today, your wallet tomorrow. Never play into the headwinds! OPEC on Friday and Tuesday - FOMC

 

[Guest]

imported post

Very true. At the last moment I had decided to go to the F fund for today. As of right now, I may have lucked out. At this time I am poised to return to the I fund. Looks like the domestics may be soft the next few days, though the S fund may be a great bargain.

 

[smedlap]

imported post

Patience Chaplain, patience. Let the market come to you. I think I fund next Tuesday concurrent with the FOMC meeting. We've done well and there is no need to be greedy, or lucky. Just need to take our time.

But just to add a comment, we all know that on Friday OPEC will talk about reductions but maintain it's current production rate,and we also know the Fed will raise the rate 1/4%. So why the drop today - sentiment or market pushing by the Bulls and the Bears to allow for a greater gain starting mid December. Note the drop in the I fund was half the C and a third of the S. A better gain upon return might be to the C vice the I. We'll see but I see a headwind right now with clearer skies next week! A prayor with research!

 

[ou81200]

imported post

Any Ideas why the I fund was down today? The Asian market was down, but the European market appeared to be strong today:?.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

The I fund was spared much of the carnage the US funds received. Lot's of red across the world however and they (international index managers) make adjustments based on how they think the Far East and Australian markets will react tonight to today's the US markets

[url]http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u[/url]

 

[ou81200]

imported post

Thanks Tom. I was looking at CNN's world market. Your Yahoo site is better.

 

[Rod]

imported post

Maybe time tobuy into I with it falling lower???

or

Is it time to shy away???

:shock:

 

[ou81200]

imported post

Rod---

I'm going to take my G fund allocation (35%) and put it with the 20% I allready have in the I fund for tomorrow only.

Let's see how it plays out.