Even more on the I fund

[puertorico]

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ok Chaplain

I'm staying 30-c 30-s and 40-I Todayand Monday...:^

 

[smedlap]

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Chaplain, puertorico, coolhand - take a look at all that garbage on Day to Day market talk. Think they need a prayor. :# Are they tense! :end: Where is the fun? We're doing just fine here in the I post even if I'm S right now - friendly informative site. Tom's contributionsincluded.

:^Of note, even though we lost some in I yesterday, the percentage loss was cut in half due to dollar conversion. So we matched theC in loss which was insignificant. Today, S in hanging in there with the I because it lost more yesterday. That tells me that all 3 stock funds are running essentially with one another. The only threat to the I is $ intervention or that it has temporarilly bottomed its drop (which is the reputed case). Now we have to look for that bump in the road and that seems to me to center around the traditional FOMC meeting with a rate rate increase projected on the 14th. Should be only .25% with today's poor jobs report. My study of last year's data reflects the decline or consolidation or breath taker (for all 3 stocks) came concurrent with the FOMC, same day plus 1. FOMC meet on9 December 03. No FOMC during January so the horse should run again during January. But that's another study! Your thoughts??

Chaplain - that prayor!!

 

[Guest]

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I fund looking good today... hang in there and we make up for yesterday + change!





Last Trade:
158.48

Trade Time:
2:42PM ET

Change:

0.78 (0.49%)[/b]

 

[Spaf]

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Concern over the economy has given the market a case of the fizzles. :h Is the I fund still up?

 

[Guest]

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ISHRS MSCI EAFE (AMEX:EFA)

Last Trade:
158.57

Trade Time:
3:28PM ET

Change:

0.87 (0.55%)[/b]Still looking good! :^:^:^

 

[smedlap]

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At .62 now spaf. A great day. will have to reviw all the contributing facts!!

 

[cowboy]

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It was nice riding with you Chaplain, and I hope your luck holds out! I'm going to pull out of I fund now and play safe with a junk and jump into the S some. I should be up a good $.18 and I was riding it 100% for the full 8 hours and the account loved it. I kind of watch weekends as the market has 2 daysof news and I been day trading so itwas nice. Being out in the Dakota's I have to depend on others for information andday trading through November was not the best but I'm learning!When you jumped into the I, Chaplain and I was setting in the day before I had a good feeling thanks for the uplift!

 

[coolhand]

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I had to go Christmas shopping this morning so I didn't get to tell you how I played it today.

After seeing the data this morning and seeing the dollar drop like a rock, I kept my allocation at 70/30 SI :dude:. Hope that still playscome Monday.

I have to travel coast to coast next week, so I'm not sure what I'm going to do come Monday. Take it one day at a time I guess.

Smedlap, weak dollar is eventually going to force somecountries to do something if it keeps going down. That's a wild card. Hard to predict. But I would think a bounce in the dollar would still be modest. I would expect it to "trend" upward vice shoot up. The reasons why it's wallowing are still there.

Market again showed great resilence today.

 

[Guest]

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Cowboy, Gonna jump too. Based on Monday's AM news, may get back into I at 30% for Tuesday. Then, I hope Tom has the forecast for the coming consolidation so I can retreat to the G when the time is right. The more you know...

 

[smedlap]

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Going to jump where chaplain. The Lord whats you to malke independent decisions. Might as wellannounce I stayed I for Monday which means I cancelled my transfer at 02:00 last night. Was to tired to post. Reason I stayed was my research same time on last year's performance of the 3 funds said stay. I fund simply outperformed and the rotation or consolidation was on the FOMC apex which is 14 November this year. See 03 historical data. We made a chunk of money today. I was 100% I and remain such. Nice weekend to all. Will probably post again after I do some research! How about some counter comments.

Thanks

 

[Guest]

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Smedlap,75%S and 25%C for Monday. I fund will still probably do well though? Evening news shows seem to indicate there is still some anxiousness on the part of the bulls regarding the domestic market, with mixed financial news today, so good for us, as it may put offacoming consolidation (if the crowd smells fear, they act more prudently.) I am thinking the market will continue to climb incrementally through the next week. If things still look this way on Monday, might get back into the I fund30% for Tuesday, as it seems to be the cash generator. Still too much gas in the market to think about G for me, and I just can't get my mind around the F fund. :?<><

 

[puertorico]

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I think I-fund has some juice to squeeze yet
F-fund must has some pennies today

 

[puertorico]

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here we go


F-6 cents
C-0 PENNIES
S-FUND 3 cents
I-FUND9 Cents

 

[smedlap]

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Chaplain, you're everywhere and it's clear to me a "sure hand" player. I see some sage advise here. You're paying close attention to the site, and the market news. As in the "Pirates of the Caribbean" - the quote " Man, you need to get a woman!" Well tong and cheek!

I like your postings, a good contribution. As to the woman - I have to "contract out" to puertorico or sure hand - I mean cool hand! I have my hands too full and it's nothing but trouble - how about a quick prayor for the market, not me! But before you pray, give me your market outlook with research facts. I think we are rightsized positioned for Monday - I remain 100% I fund. Coolhand - whatsay you?

 

[coolhand]

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Smedlap,

See my post above. I think we are still okay, but we are getting close to the point where foreign intervention may begin. Today EU/Dollar is 1.3458 and 101.95 Yen.

I can't trust the media to predict this. I also think a rise in the dollar has a greater effect on the EAFE price than I previously thought. Yesterday the dollar rebounded modestly and even though almost every overseas market was green (real green) we ended negative.

When might intervention begin? How effective will it be?

I'm only 30% invested in "I" because I don't fully understand the risk, but I do think risk has substantially risen. No reason to not havea larger allocation in domestic equities right now. They are more predictable (did I just say predictable?)

 

[Guest]

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Kewl Hand,

Intervention will not happen. Why you ask? Here is why:

(1) Since Japan is at negative growth (their money market and bank accounts pay 0% interest) they can not print more money to buy their currency or go BACK into a recession.

(2) Europe is at 1-2% growth and they are in the same boat as Japan. However you have been seeing the Eurpopeans have been buy U.S. stock on the cheap and they are coming here to shop and go to Disney land. As you have see the high end retailers and Disney have been doing well. Also the NYC based hotels are at near compacity.

MEANS - BUY NYC based hotels/high end retailers and Disney stock (which is up 20% since the U.S. dollar starting really taking three months ago).

Buy precious metals and short the heck out of the U.S. dollar. It is going to fall 40% in the next year. Also I see the Euro becoming the standard currency within the next 10 years.

I strongly believe that Japan and Europe are talking to strengthen their currency and then will sale U.S. treasuries in mass because they are losing around $5.1B a day on them. A freaking day. They hold over 40% of our debt. Do a google search on Bill Gross and read his articles.

Buy TIPS (NOT MUTUAL FUNDS) and I Bonds as your bond holdings. Do not buy a bond fund that has a maturity average over three years. SELL, SELL long term bond funds and junk bond funds now.

What is means is credit card, ARMs and car loans are going to shoot up here real soon real fast and the U.S. dollar will get crushed.

Follow the trend, read the market, take ACTION and then rack in the scratch.

God bless and good night.

Dr Bill





coolhand wrote:

Smedlap,

See my post above. I think we are still okay, but we are getting close to the point where foreign intervention may begin. Today EU/Dollar is 1.3458 and 101.95 Yen.

I can't trust the media to predict this. I also think a rise in the dollar has a greater effect on the EAFE price than I previously thought. Yesterday the dollar rebounded modestly and even though almost every overseas market was green (real green) we ended negative.

When might intervention begin? How effective will it be?

I'm only 30% invested in "I" because I don't fully understand the risk, but I do think risk has substantially risen. No reason to not havea larger allocation in domestic equities right now. They are more predictable (did I just say predictable?)

 

[coolhand]

imported post

Take me to your leader :^.

 

[Guest]

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Mr Cool,

Me leader is Mr Market...I follow his lead. His lead says:

Buy precious metals

Any currency other then the U.S. dollar

and get ready for a recession.

Good luck!

Pay off credit cards, car loans and for goodness sakes GET A FIXED RATE MORTAGE. The ARM people will be ARMless/houseless soon.

Bill



coolhand wrote:

Take me to your leader :^.

 

[smedlap]

imported post

OK Market Timer, this kind of tracks the facts over a long to be annual process. The Q. is we are playing relatively near term and not playing open stock markets or cyclicals. We have a basket of 3 stock funds, 1 treasury relatedand a bond related fund all invested in good assets. So in this group of 5, where do you see the play? Interest rate climb kills the F fund, which we all agree is a dead horse. Dollar decline helps the I fund, but if every economy is going to hell, one is getting a better deal on a losing stock hand. So are you advocating C fund which will keep pace with interest rate climb and give us 3-4% added gain on the annual interest rate hike each year?

Why are you going to bed at 08:00 am and wishing us good night?

Coolhand. I agree with your near term assessment and am riding the I with you for a short term. Will balance that against Tom's recommendation. The $ declined so far yesterday against the EURO, it metthe projected (1.35) target much earlier then expected. I see short-term support before moving on to 1.4. Yen still has a way to go to reach near term 1 to 1. And oil is slidding into a projected bottom of around $40 a barrell. Agree with Market Timer that a.) it is costing Japan a bundle to keep it's currency pegged to the dollar and b.) foreign major economies arepathetically poor in GDP growth! Last I looked, Germany had an 11% unemployment rate! But I don't think they collectively are coordinated right now to do anything creative. Thisweek, there is no realmajor economic activity leading us into the FOMC on Tuesday.

S&P still has 3 - 4% fair market value opportunity.

03 facts I, S and C funds gained .75, .10, and .46 respectively lastDecemberwith essentially a dry period up until Dec 16. From there, that's where they made their respective gains. The cosolidation blip was a -1% shortterm loss. OK Tom, this is where you come in with your advice!

 

[Guest]

imported post

I am in HI and it is 0425.

Play it this way. 50 I, 40 S and 10 C fund.

Let the lemmings fund their ROTH/IRAs and ride the wave until the third week of Jan and then look to heave ho. Have your new money go into the stock funds protect the big egg in the G fund.

Then look to buy the dipsand sell the tops. That is how (the folks with me) played it this year and we did pretty darn well for a bad market.

Take care and be safe.

Bill

P.S. The low end retailers are telling you the pain is going up the food chain. The start of a recession is the low end folks not doing well. The sign the recession is all most over is when the high end boys are hurting...

Do a google search on Bill Gross and read his latest articles. He is a good person to listen too.



smedlap wrote:

OK Market Timer, this kind of tracks the facts over a long to be annual process. The Q. is we are playing relatively near term and not playing open stock markets or cyclicals. We have a basket of 3 stock funds, 1 treasury relatedand a bond related fund all invested in good assets. So in this group of 5, where do you see the play? Interest rate climb kills the F fund, which we all agree is a dead horse. Dollar decline helps the I fund, but if every economy is going to hell, one is getting a better deal on a losing stock hand. So are you advocating C fund which will keep pace with interest rate climb and give us 3-4% added gain on the annual interest rate hike each year?

Why are you going to bed at 08:00 am and wishing us good night?

Coolhand. I agree with your near term assessment and am riding the I with you for a short term. Will balance that against Tom's recommendation. The $ declined so far yesterday against the EURO, it metthe projected (1.35) target much earlier then expected. I see short-term support before moving on to 1.4. Yen still has a way to go to reach near term 1 to 1. And oil is slidding into a projected bottom of around $40 a barrell. Agree with Market Timer that a.) it is costing Japan a bundle to keep it's currency pegged to the dollar and b.) foreign major economies arepathetically poor in GDP growth! Last I looked, Germany had an 11% unemployment rate! But I don't think they collectively are coordinated right now to do anything creative. Thisweek, there is no realmajor economic activity leading us into the FOMC on Tuesday.

S&P still has 3 - 4% fair market value opportunity.

03 facts I, S and C funds gained .75, .10, and .46 respectively lastDecemberwith essentially a dry period up until Dec 16. From there, that's where they made their respective gains. The cosolidation blip was a -1% shortterm loss. OK Tom, this is where you come in with your advice!