Even more on the I fund

[Rod]

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It sure doesn't look like the I Fund (EAFE)should be down .47%.

http://money.cnn.com/markets/world_markets/

:%

 

[coolhand]

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Here's my two cents...

A modest one day bounce in the dollar does not a trend make. And since the dollars valueis only one component of the "I" fund it does not by itself dictate its direction.

I will say, as I've been saying all along, that the dollar is probably not going to go too much lower than italreadyhasandI also don't think it will recover at a quick pace. I may be wrong, but that's what I believe. I am still playing it "day-to-day".

Spaf, I also have not gone more than 30% deep in the "I". The "S" fund has also done well (as has the "C") so why put all ones eggs in one basket? That is not a knock on anyone, just my own way of playing the market at this time.

Chaps, I don't see the current political instability in the Ukraine as having much bearing on the "I" fund unless it gets really ugly...then I'm not so sure. If that's the case itmay then have somenegativeimpact, butthe "I" fund has no holdings in that part of the world.

As faras the employment report goes for tomorrow, no oneknows for sure what will come to pass. The consensus is for a .1% drop from 5.5% to 5.4%.

I know, I know, you can't trust the analysts (right Spaf?!) . Butother data such as the IMS report yesterday and the factory orders report today, as well as increased hiring during election years (by the Government), andseasonal jobs, make me inclined to believe there shouldbe no surprises.Oil is down big time over the last two days. Even withlackluster retail sales (mixed bag really) there is still a lot of positive indicators out there for the short term.

This is only food for thought, not a prediction. Currently 70/30 SI.

 

[coolhand]

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Rod wrote:

It sure doesn't look like the I Fund (EAFE)should be down .47%.

:%

I thought this was strange too. The foreign markets are one day ahead us and were overwhelmingly green today. How does that translate into a down day for the EAFE?

Anyone???

 

[smedlap]

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Coolhand, Chaplain and puertorico. I'm moving to 100% S. i do not feel comfortable anymore in the I for a number of reasons. 1. Oil is declining, European and other country GDPs are suffering, foreign countries are sparring to jump in to restore their economic solvency and the dollar has run about as far down as it is fun for me.

I'mhave gone100% S effective COB Friday and watching the jobs report plus! S Fund has been doing just as well as I - good old USA team 1. Can't suggest how you play but Europe is too soft for me even if the I fund has great companies! Most think this is going to be a great Xmas. I'm trying for another 6% for Dec as the Chaplain says don't be greedy! Otherwise I would be after 12%!

Puertorico, be careful but don't retreat into G fund hiding. It's not time. Easy 3-4% gain in C or S I expect!

 

[Guest]

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Point well taken. I will be S or S - C mix for Monday. I will only retreat to G when I am strongly convinced that it is imperative to do so. With only 10-12 years left, I will need to grow my account as aggressively as can be reasonably expected. That being said, the G fund as safe haven is great, but courage is called for to meet my goals for retirement. The think tank of your great minds is of great comfort as I ponder these daily decisions.

I appreciate the diversity of opinion and insight shared. All ships rise together. Anyone for a couple verses of "Kum ba yah"?

 

[coolhand]

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That sounds like a good play to me. I just might do the same thing. I'm on travel all next week so I can't watch the markets as close as I'd like. Might be a good timeto take some chips off the table (so to speak). Not sure what my new allocation will be, but maybe 25/25/50 GCS.

 

[puertorico]

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Smedlap -thankS ....I did it already move 25% from G to stock BECOUSE
I said before tha I dont like thursdays pay week almosT always take
part of the money you puting in.

now I'm 100%stock for friday.


30-C 30-S 40-I. I do not gonna put 100% in one basket unless
I see a not brainer situation euro vs dollar benefic factor them I
will go to 100% in one basket.Rightnow is not clear.that why willlooking
to be diversifie but look good 100% S for friday...

 

[Guest]

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Timer wrote:

No, no, no, no, Chap buddy, I know you are new around here but talk like that will go right to her head. She's hard enough to live with as it is. Go easy pal. o

o

 

[puertorico]

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Trivia

[I-FUND 15.00 share priceas of 12-2-04]

How highu think will be I-fund in december 31 ?

*I think will go to 15.70 "share price *

 

[tsptalk]

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puertorico wrote:

How highu think will be I-fund in december 31 ?

*I think will go to 15.70 "share price *

Possibly, but I'm leaning toward S and C. As we know the I fundis at the mercy of the dollar and it decides to rebound from the basement (as oilcame down from its bubble) the I fund may not give us what we are suspecting the U.S. stocks will do.

Of course I was saying that two months ago also. :dah: That was a big mistake.

 

[eukrate]

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Tom -
I think you overestimate the effect of the dollar. When it declines against a currrency it has the same percentage effect onthe I-fund price as an equivalent increase in the foreign market. The currency effect does not dominate the local market effect. So it's possible to have the dollar decline stop and the I-fund return would just follow the Euro markets ( like you're getting now with C and S domestically). You agree?
See
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum14/763.html



BTW, for your gramtically-challenged contributors, it's "have" not "of", as in "should have... (the confusion arises from the pronunciation of the contraction "should've"

 

[tsptalk]

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eukrate wrote:

Tom -
I think you overestimate the effect of the dollar. When it declines against a currrency it has the same percentage effect onthe I-fund price as an equivalent increase in the foreign market. The currency effect does not dominate the local market effect. So it's possible to have the dollar decline stop and the I-fund return would just follow the Euro markets ( like you're getting now with C and S domestically). You agree?
See
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum14/763.html

I totally agree. So my point is that with all things equal, use all the funds. But if the dollar is due for a increase, why not take what our strong US markets are giving and not risk the dollar fluctuations?

The EAFE is up 8% this year in local (foreign) currecy and andup 14% in US dollars. So the US small and large caps have actually done better than the international markets if you take out the dollar effect. If the dollar starts rising, why not stick with US stocks and not risk a rising dollar?

 

[Guest]

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eukrate wrote:

BTW, for your gramtically-challenged contributors, it's "have" not "of", as in "should have... (the confusion arises from the pronunciation of the contraction "should've"

And for the spelling-challenged contributors, it's "grammatically" not "gramtically, as in "if your gonna correct someone grammatically on an "informal" board, at least spell it correctly... (the confusion arises from the English language which really doesn't make since a lot of times, ie the two "m's", who really needs two "m's"? You do however need to pronounce the "a", no getting around that one........)

Just playing with ya eukrate...............I mean "you"............of course, that sentence isn't actually a complete sentence because there is no noun before the verb.........:^

Blame it on MT.................

 

[Guest]

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How do you spell bad move? Doing a transfer allocation to the F fund!



mlk_man wrote:

eukrate wrote:

BTW, for your gramtically-challenged contributors, it's "have" not "of", as in "should have... (the confusion arises from the pronunciation of the contraction "should've"

And for the spelling-challenged contributors, it's "grammatically" not "gramtically, as in "if your gonna correct someone grammatically on an "informal" board, at least spell it correctly... (the confusion arises from the English language which really doesn't make since a lot of times, ie the two "m's", who really needs two "m's"? You do however need to pronounce the "a", no getting around that one........)

Just playing with ya eukrate...............I mean "you"............of course, that sentence isn't actually a complete sentence because there is no noun before the verb.........:^

Blame it on MT.................

 

[eukrate]

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Right! The moment I posted that I saw the spelling error and KNEW someone would jump on me. So I'm gramatically fit but spelling-challenged...


BTW, welcome back MarketTimer

 

[Guest]

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Hey Eukrate!

Thanks. Good to see you still kicking around.

Can we change your name to Yeno (Yen and Euro)?

Ha ha.

Who cares about the spellign? Oh yeah, people with crappy systems.

MT

eukrate

eukrate wrote:

Right! The moment I posted that I saw the spelling error and KNEW someone would jump on me. So I'm gramatically fit but spelling-challenged...


BTW, welcome back MarketTimer

 

[eukrate]

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No thanks, I like my name, eukrate. It's from an asteroid, orbiting the sun way out past mars. Here's a picture..

http://www.mountabbeydale.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/Images/Eukrate.htm



MT, what are you looking at when you conclude the market's way overbought?

 

[smedlap]

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Agree Tom, we have strong markets - weak employment report. But that's OK! Less pressure on the Fed to aggressively raise rates. I still think a great last 2 weeks and a strong January. I am S now but somewhat sorry to have left I. One must go where the play is!

 

[puertorico]

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Smedlap said ,One must go where the play is! Here u go

Hey Today before dead line what u plans for Monday ,U will stay put 100-s

 

[Guest]

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Game on! Puertorico and Smedlap, I am with you for the domestics. 75%S and 25%C for Monday. Hoping the I fund today brings some cash. What a great week!So much to learn and understand. <><:^