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Even more on the I fund
- Thread starter Wheels
- Start date
imported post
Yes, the EAFE did poorly but don't let it trouble you. It is just not the right time with the dollar and oil gaining slightly. Sentiment slightly shifted to favor US equities or the Gand the F against inflation. Maybe next week, but I think more early January as the US economy is far better off than Europe and Asia for Christmas, less China productivity.
Just remember. You may have an infinity for a particular stock fund because it has done so well in the past or you lost money and you want to get it back. It's sudden drop is nothing more than a dead cat bounce. The fate of the gambler! The stock funddosen't know you at all andcertainly has no brain powerto supplementa good supporter'sreturns. So there is a saying to go with the flow, avoid the downside when one can prudently do so and try to ride the positive crest when it exists. It certainly is also not day trading. I make only a few trades a month and some on this board make probably no more than 5 a year and do very well. Accumulation of assets takes time and when one eventually get's there, he or she is certainlyvery attentiveto trading.
Good luck
Yes, the EAFE did poorly but don't let it trouble you. It is just not the right time with the dollar and oil gaining slightly. Sentiment slightly shifted to favor US equities or the Gand the F against inflation. Maybe next week, but I think more early January as the US economy is far better off than Europe and Asia for Christmas, less China productivity.
Just remember. You may have an infinity for a particular stock fund because it has done so well in the past or you lost money and you want to get it back. It's sudden drop is nothing more than a dead cat bounce. The fate of the gambler! The stock funddosen't know you at all andcertainly has no brain powerto supplementa good supporter'sreturns. So there is a saying to go with the flow, avoid the downside when one can prudently do so and try to ride the positive crest when it exists. It certainly is also not day trading. I make only a few trades a month and some on this board make probably no more than 5 a year and do very well. Accumulation of assets takes time and when one eventually get's there, he or she is certainlyvery attentiveto trading.
Good luck
vectorman
Active member
imported post
Evening Tom, I see your up late too. I was looking at the chart for the S fund from 9/19/03 to the first week of Dec. and I noticed it had 4 major corrections as it was trending up. Do you recall how you made your allocations during that time? The reason I was asking is because the I fund has had a great run and was due for some major profit taking.Being new to the site, I was wonderinghow some of the members acted during those 4 big corrections the S fund went through last fall to winter. This is only the first major correction for the I fund since it recently made its big push upward and I thought we were looking for a good pull-back.The I fund last fall to winter had a great run and corrected on Jan. 22 to Feb. 4 losing 44 cents before starting its run up again.Just looking back at the chart for the I fund the last two years, I would think this correction should be pretty close to bottom.The way you calculate trend lines using the SP500, can you do the same using the chart for the I fund? Also, correct me if this is wrong, but it seems if the I fund continues to drop then the C and S will eventually do likewise. Or if the C and S fund continue to make a slow climb then the the I fund will at some point reverse itself and climb with a vengeanceas investors put back money. Much like we saw when the Sp500 was over sold this fall. I know some will say the I fund is international and separate from the S and C funds,but if one looks at the charts for all three, they run a similiar course. Thanks for the help.
Evening Tom, I see your up late too. I was looking at the chart for the S fund from 9/19/03 to the first week of Dec. and I noticed it had 4 major corrections as it was trending up. Do you recall how you made your allocations during that time? The reason I was asking is because the I fund has had a great run and was due for some major profit taking.Being new to the site, I was wonderinghow some of the members acted during those 4 big corrections the S fund went through last fall to winter. This is only the first major correction for the I fund since it recently made its big push upward and I thought we were looking for a good pull-back.The I fund last fall to winter had a great run and corrected on Jan. 22 to Feb. 4 losing 44 cents before starting its run up again.Just looking back at the chart for the I fund the last two years, I would think this correction should be pretty close to bottom.The way you calculate trend lines using the SP500, can you do the same using the chart for the I fund? Also, correct me if this is wrong, but it seems if the I fund continues to drop then the C and S will eventually do likewise. Or if the C and S fund continue to make a slow climb then the the I fund will at some point reverse itself and climb with a vengeanceas investors put back money. Much like we saw when the Sp500 was over sold this fall. I know some will say the I fund is international and separate from the S and C funds,but if one looks at the charts for all three, they run a similiar course. Thanks for the help.
imported post
Vectorman, good morning! My assessment alsoagrees with yours, a good study of the facts. Last year the I fund certainly was the best performer during this next 5-week period, and I agree, it will rise at some time to regain lost ground. It's potential from current bottom to parity with the C and S is a great return (play). My opinion is that the European and Asian economies are really hurting right now, the US economy not which may result in a Christmas periodbonus for the C fund. If oil rises in price, and the dollar declines - it is a doubleadvantage to foreign countries, thus the I fund. Thisis predicted tohappen after or during January. Dollar is still projected to go 1.4 to the Euro and 100 or less to 1 to the yen. My timing is when I see I to start to maintain parity at its current bottom (or turn). I'm back in then.
Waiting for Tom's response to your Q.and your counter thoughts. I've gone 100% C COB Monday as I think the US market will pop if the1/4 point rate hike proves true.Market should be slightly down Monday. Watch, it will be up 2% on Monday! Hah!
Vectorman, good morning! My assessment alsoagrees with yours, a good study of the facts. Last year the I fund certainly was the best performer during this next 5-week period, and I agree, it will rise at some time to regain lost ground. It's potential from current bottom to parity with the C and S is a great return (play). My opinion is that the European and Asian economies are really hurting right now, the US economy not which may result in a Christmas periodbonus for the C fund. If oil rises in price, and the dollar declines - it is a doubleadvantage to foreign countries, thus the I fund. Thisis predicted tohappen after or during January. Dollar is still projected to go 1.4 to the Euro and 100 or less to 1 to the yen. My timing is when I see I to start to maintain parity at its current bottom (or turn). I'm back in then.
Waiting for Tom's response to your Q.and your counter thoughts. I've gone 100% C COB Monday as I think the US market will pop if the1/4 point rate hike proves true.Market should be slightly down Monday. Watch, it will be up 2% on Monday! Hah!
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
Just watch the U.S. dollar when it starts to go back down again...get back into I.
When you see the U.S. dollar go up then get out of I.
The trend is your friend and the trend is not to ride the I fund down while the U.S. dollar goes up.
By the way, if you research you will see around FOMC meetings this happens - the dollar gets stronger. So a week or so before the next fomc after this one - get out of the I fund.
But the monday morning quarterback said get out last week.
Morpheus
Just watch the U.S. dollar when it starts to go back down again...get back into I.
When you see the U.S. dollar go up then get out of I.
The trend is your friend and the trend is not to ride the I fund down while the U.S. dollar goes up.
By the way, if you research you will see around FOMC meetings this happens - the dollar gets stronger. So a week or so before the next fomc after this one - get out of the I fund.
But the monday morning quarterback said get out last week.
Morpheus
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
Smed
My view the wording on the FOMC statement is going to spoke the market.
I tried to help Rod last week - and he still went into I fund for the nice .40 drop but I am the monday morning quarterback here and what I say NEVER NEVER happens according to the nay sayers.
Morpheus
Hey Rod you did not mention that was good advice not to go into the I fund? Maybe I missed it.
smedlap wrote:
Smed
My view the wording on the FOMC statement is going to spoke the market.
I tried to help Rod last week - and he still went into I fund for the nice .40 drop but I am the monday morning quarterback here and what I say NEVER NEVER happens according to the nay sayers.
Morpheus
Hey Rod you did not mention that was good advice not to go into the I fund? Maybe I missed it.
smedlap wrote:
vectorman
Active member
imported post
Thanks for the comment smedlap and MT. Unlike others who put some to most of there assets in the G fund which was a good move especially if they can get back in the market at the right time. I stayed in stocks (C, S &I)since they were still trending up, I'm not very good at timing,and I didn't expect a long correction period. I'm hoping there is alot of money on the sidelines, ie mutaul funds that still need to be put to work. What I did was to pull mostof my investment out of the I fund ( from 40% to 25% before it fell) and place it in the C fundsince it was still at the moving average I use for it. Plus it doesn't fall as quickly as the I or S fund. That put me at 50 C, 25 S and 25 I.Last Thursday I moved to 75 S and stayed 25 I, to take effect for Friday. My point is that even with the big drop in the I fund, I was still able toget backpretty close to striking distance tomy high before the big correction by just using the C fund, then the S fund.I'm just going to keep the 25% in I for now. I don't what to loose what I have in it by getting out and missing the bounce I know will come. Sometimes it works and sometimes not. I wish I went some in G fund, but sometimes I get too comfortable in it and cannot decide at what point to put it back to work without missing out on anything good. My returnwill not be as big as those who can get there money out of the G fund back into stocks, but its all in the timing. I tried that this summer. Sometimes it worked great and others times I lost out on big money opportunities. I would miss a big bounce or not recognize a slow recovery.I've learned alot from Tom and others on this site. The the biggest thing that I've learned is to take control of my TSP, learn what's going on in the world, try to make calculated moves without emotion and try not to panic when things appear to be heading down thecrapper. Let me say again, I'm new at moving my funds, so don't follow me. But since taking control of my TSP, I wish I would have done it years ago instead of lettingchance have control. Good luck all and come on Santa Clause ralley.
Thanks for the comment smedlap and MT. Unlike others who put some to most of there assets in the G fund which was a good move especially if they can get back in the market at the right time. I stayed in stocks (C, S &I)since they were still trending up, I'm not very good at timing,and I didn't expect a long correction period. I'm hoping there is alot of money on the sidelines, ie mutaul funds that still need to be put to work. What I did was to pull mostof my investment out of the I fund ( from 40% to 25% before it fell) and place it in the C fundsince it was still at the moving average I use for it. Plus it doesn't fall as quickly as the I or S fund. That put me at 50 C, 25 S and 25 I.Last Thursday I moved to 75 S and stayed 25 I, to take effect for Friday. My point is that even with the big drop in the I fund, I was still able toget backpretty close to striking distance tomy high before the big correction by just using the C fund, then the S fund.I'm just going to keep the 25% in I for now. I don't what to loose what I have in it by getting out and missing the bounce I know will come. Sometimes it works and sometimes not. I wish I went some in G fund, but sometimes I get too comfortable in it and cannot decide at what point to put it back to work without missing out on anything good. My returnwill not be as big as those who can get there money out of the G fund back into stocks, but its all in the timing. I tried that this summer. Sometimes it worked great and others times I lost out on big money opportunities. I would miss a big bounce or not recognize a slow recovery.I've learned alot from Tom and others on this site. The the biggest thing that I've learned is to take control of my TSP, learn what's going on in the world, try to make calculated moves without emotion and try not to panic when things appear to be heading down thecrapper. Let me say again, I'm new at moving my funds, so don't follow me. But since taking control of my TSP, I wish I would have done it years ago instead of lettingchance have control. Good luck all and come on Santa Clause ralley.
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
Vectorman,
Are you abiological superhero? I got a lab rat that is broke.
Find the nay sayer and do the opposite of them. Just kidding.
If you open your eyes and do some research you can greatly outperform the indexes.
I said they were crap early. Yes they are.
Five year return (last time I looked) of the S fund is 3.08, I fund is (.92) and the C fund is (.80). Not a good investmentyear over year at all unless you use historically and market news research to help boost the return. I would not be very happy to be a hold and hope and average negative one percent for the last five years. Add inflation and you are down four percent year after year. A lot of people count their matching funds in their return performance.
Send me an e-mail if you want and I will add you to my little newsletter that I started last week. Maybe I can give you some ideas.
Last week everyone was so bullish...had to splash some water on this party because when everyone is bullish it is time to rethink the game plan. Wish you would of moved with the five people that moved with me to the G fund on Thursday. But good luck. My lab rat moved into the market on Friday - the maze is in a straight line and he can not figure it out.
Should be an interesting week. Risk/reward.
Morpheus.
Vectorman,
Are you abiological superhero? I got a lab rat that is broke.
Find the nay sayer and do the opposite of them. Just kidding.
If you open your eyes and do some research you can greatly outperform the indexes.
I said they were crap early. Yes they are.
Five year return (last time I looked) of the S fund is 3.08, I fund is (.92) and the C fund is (.80). Not a good investmentyear over year at all unless you use historically and market news research to help boost the return. I would not be very happy to be a hold and hope and average negative one percent for the last five years. Add inflation and you are down four percent year after year. A lot of people count their matching funds in their return performance.
Send me an e-mail if you want and I will add you to my little newsletter that I started last week. Maybe I can give you some ideas.
Last week everyone was so bullish...had to splash some water on this party because when everyone is bullish it is time to rethink the game plan. Wish you would of moved with the five people that moved with me to the G fund on Thursday. But good luck. My lab rat moved into the market on Friday - the maze is in a straight line and he can not figure it out.
Should be an interesting week. Risk/reward.
Morpheus.
Rod
Well-known member
imported post
MarketTimer wrote:
Well Bill, I simply don't know when to take you seriously.
1. On Dec 3, you said:
Stay in the market until the third week of January. Now is the time to be fully invested.
2. NowBill, you are in G.
I do appreciate your advice. But lately it has beeninconsistent and full of "mixed signals"making itvery difficult to decipher. Therefore, I took that chance then took a hit. Who hasn't taken a hit???
Maybe I will listen more once I see some consistency in your comments.
God Bless:^
MarketTimer wrote:
Well Bill, I simply don't know when to take you seriously.
1. On Dec 3, you said:
Stay in the market until the third week of January. Now is the time to be fully invested.
2. NowBill, you are in G.
I do appreciate your advice. But lately it has beeninconsistent and full of "mixed signals"making itvery difficult to decipher. Therefore, I took that chance then took a hit. Who hasn't taken a hit???
Maybe I will listen more once I see some consistency in your comments.
God Bless:^
imported post
vectorman wrote:
The international markets do tend to mirror the U.S. markets as you mentioned. If the U.S. markets rally through the end of the year, then the EAFE should probably follow. But right now the dollar is calling the shots for the I fund. Some say the dollar will continue lower, others think we are near the bottom. Since I'm not much of an economist, I just look at the charts and thosechartshave me guessing it's closer to a bottom but the day to day wiggles may make calling the I fund tough.
That is why I say with all things being equal, play the the I fund equally. But sincethe dollar is involved, and could be close to a longer term bottom (I don't know about the short term) it may be wise not to go too heavily in that fund, and rely mainly on the C and S when you are in stocks until we see which way the dollar is going to try to go. That's my take.
vectorman wrote:
V-man -
The international markets do tend to mirror the U.S. markets as you mentioned. If the U.S. markets rally through the end of the year, then the EAFE should probably follow. But right now the dollar is calling the shots for the I fund. Some say the dollar will continue lower, others think we are near the bottom. Since I'm not much of an economist, I just look at the charts and thosechartshave me guessing it's closer to a bottom but the day to day wiggles may make calling the I fund tough.
That is why I say with all things being equal, play the the I fund equally. But sincethe dollar is involved, and could be close to a longer term bottom (I don't know about the short term) it may be wise not to go too heavily in that fund, and rely mainly on the C and S when you are in stocks until we see which way the dollar is going to try to go. That's my take.
imported post
Oh, I knew I would find Tom somewhere on the many posts tonight. Ineed a "Tom advice fix" before Monday trading! I have to agree with you Vectorman- excellent logic by you andsage rational by Tom. Strange to see the S&P 500 up 2.7 already. NaturallyI was hoping it would be down to advance myTuesday transitionto the C fund.Vman- you're a player because you are posting logic and you're going to be a lead because you argue your position! Fact is, you held a steady hand that did well and did not lose anything. OK Tom - S&P up 2.7 before the FOMC. Tells me a strong market? What say you now that I am off margaretta! That's the drink, not the girl!
Oh, I knew I would find Tom somewhere on the many posts tonight. Ineed a "Tom advice fix" before Monday trading! I have to agree with you Vectorman- excellent logic by you andsage rational by Tom. Strange to see the S&P 500 up 2.7 already. NaturallyI was hoping it would be down to advance myTuesday transitionto the C fund.Vman- you're a player because you are posting logic and you're going to be a lead because you argue your position! Fact is, you held a steady hand that did well and did not lose anything. OK Tom - S&P up 2.7 before the FOMC. Tells me a strong market? What say you now that I am off margaretta! That's the drink, not the girl!
sonofthunder
New member
imported post
Hey MT Ilike your comments. :^
Q. According to the historical chart for Dec. Our next jump into the C should be around the mid-trading day of this month which will actually be the 16th Thurs. am I correct in this? Also don't you think that the S isa little high and still in need of a decent correction?
Enjoy your comments MT. Put me on your News letter list too ok. Thanks.
email to usicipk-cart@yahoo.com
Hey MT Ilike your comments. :^
Q. According to the historical chart for Dec. Our next jump into the C should be around the mid-trading day of this month which will actually be the 16th Thurs. am I correct in this? Also don't you think that the S isa little high and still in need of a decent correction?
Enjoy your comments MT. Put me on your News letter list too ok. Thanks.
email to usicipk-cart@yahoo.com
vectorman
Active member
imported post
BOTTOM BOUNCE???Come on baby climb... http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/European_Stock_Markets/european_stock_markets.html http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20041213&ID=4141004 http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/market/foreign.asp
BOTTOM BOUNCE???Come on baby climb... http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/European_Stock_Markets/european_stock_markets.html http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20041213&ID=4141004 http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/market/foreign.asp
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