Ebb's Account Talk

[ebbnflow]

I did some research on how the S&P 500 fared during the ebbchart years (2007-2013). These are the win-loss percentages of the S&P 500 in: 2007 (54.6%); 2008 (50.2%); 2009 (55.6%); 2010 (57.1%); 2011 (54.8%); 2012 (52.8%); 2013 thru end of June (60.5%).

There were 893 up days and 741 down days (893/1634 or 54.7%) from 2007 – 2013. This is very significant because all four bearish green patterns -- 7 (52.1%), 1 (52.3%), 4 (53.8%), 2 (53.9%) -- went below 54.7% in the C (54.3%), S (53.4%), and I-fund (51.5%). While the combined averages (only 5 and 3 beat it, though) of the bullish red patterns -- 5 (58.8%), 3 (55.9%), 8 (54.1%), 6 (52.3%) -- managed to beat 54.7% in the C (55.7%), S (54.9%), and I (55.0%).

It is also interesting to note that pattern 5/red-red-red held a win percentage of 60% while pattern 1/green-green-green (its exact opposite) only had 52% in the C-fund (see 6 yr. ebbtally chart below).

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for July 08, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.53%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.29%; EFA (I-fund): +0.64%.

Monday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.64% (no FV expected tonight).

TNA: +1.44% (YTD: +63.45%). Alcoa kicks off the second-quarter earnings season.

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for July 09, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.72%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.91%; EFA (I-fund): +0.57%.

Tuesday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.75% (no FV expected tonight).

TNA: +2.60% (YTD: +67.70%). I see more bears waving the white flag.

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for July 10, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.02%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.14%; EFA (I-fund): +0.22%.

Wednesday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.74% (no FV expected tonight).

TNA: +0.99% (YTD: +69.20%). Fed up with the Fed.

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for July 11, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +1.36%; DWCPF (S-fund): +1.30%; EFA (I-fund): +2.62%.

Thursday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +1.79% (+FV expected tonight).

TNA: +3.36% (YTD: +74.89%). Bulls' cups runneth over.

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for July 12, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.31%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.38%; EFA (I-fund): -0.66%.

Friday's MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -0.13% (no FV expected tonight). Add Thursday's FV (fair value) baggage of -0.58% and the I-fund is down -0.71% today. For next Monday, the I-fund is all squared up.

TNA: +0.95% (YTD: +76.55%). Have a safe and fun weekend!

 

[nnuut]

Thanks for the info, again!

 

[rcknfrewld]

i will only give likes to you, from here on out, when the I fund is negative and you predict a negative fair value as well...since i am out of moves until August and waiting to pounce

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for July 15, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.14%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.39%; EFA (I-fund): +0.64%.

Monday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.18% (no FV expected tonight). Japan's Nikkei was closed for a holiday (Marine Day).

TNA: +2.25% (YTD: +80.52%). It's gonna be a lean summer for the pooh bears if they don't take a bite. :blink:

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for July 16, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): -0.37%; DWCPF (S-fund): -0.58%; EFA (I-fund): -0.02%.

Tuesday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.45% (no FV expected tonight).

TNA: -1.44% (YTD: +77.92%). So far it has been smooth sailing for the bulls, but somewhere along the line, the boat is going to reach its tipping point. Before that happens, we might be able to hear the captain yell, "You at the back, sit down and don't rock the boat."

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for July 17, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.28%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.44%; EFA (I-fund): +0.32%.

Wednesday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.06% (no FV expected tonight).

TNA: +1.23% (YTD: +80.11%). It's ground and pound for the bulls.

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for July 18, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.50%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.74%; EFA (I-fund): +0.66%.

Thursday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.49% (no FV expected tonight).

TNA: +2.01% (YTD: +83.68%). A silver lining for the bears after the closing bell -- bellwethers Google and Microsoft missed analysts' estimates (both are headed south of the border in after-hours trading). :worried:

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for July 19, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.16%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.05%; EFA (I-fund): -0.05%.

Friday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.12% (no FV expected tonight).

TNA: +0.30% (YTD: +84.21%). The pooh bears had Google and Microsoft on their side today, to no avail.

 

[MrBowl]

Unofficial results for July 19, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.16%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.05%; EFA (I-fund): -0.05%.

Friday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.12% (no FV expected tonight).

TNA: +0.30% (YTD: +84.21%). The pooh bears had Google and Microsoft on their side today, to no avail.

Thanks, as always, for posting these numbers so quickly!

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for July 22, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.20%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.31%; EFA (I-fund): +0.58%.

Monday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.77% (no FV expected tonight).

TNA: +0.86% (YTD: +85.80%). Bears are acting like deers caught in the headlights.

Note: I'll be out of town for the next couple days.

 

[rcknfrewld]

Tuesday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of .08%. (from what I have learned from ebb, no FV tonight)
TNA...don't know what this is but it must be good if it's +85% for the year
If you don't know how the rest of our funds closed today...you need help
Bulls out there need to be castrated...

 

[rcknfrewld]

Wednesdays MSCI EAFE unfortunately shows another gain of .33%....fair value, I don't know...probably not
TNA....who cares when you are already up 80% for the year
Rest of our funds were down today...seems like forever since we had back to back down days... about time for those of us out of moves for the rest of the week
Somebody kick the Bears in the arse to wake them up...
I don't know what ebb's dinky triple pattern shows but my superior quadruple patterns are telling me we are due for a hefty correction of 20% from now thru September

 

[Frixxxx]

Wednesdays MSCI EAFE unfortunately shows another gain of .33%....fair value, I don't know...probably not
TNA....who cares when you are already up 80% for the year
Rest of our funds were down today...seems like forever since we had back to back down days... about time for those of us out of moves for the rest of the week
Somebody kick the Bears in the arse to wake them up...
I don't know what ebb's dinky triple pattern shows but my superior quadruple patterns are telling me we are due for a hefty correction of 20% from now thru September

That's a hefty request......Got to be a huge trigger to set that one in motion.......

 

[rcknfrewld]

ebb...take the rest of the week I got you covered bro

Thursday's MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -.56%...i felt a thrill going down my leg this morning when i saw the futures deep in the red, but of course we were soon trampled underfoot by the bulls...(to add a kick to the yahoos there will probably be some+FV added)
TNA...hey I know what that stands for...wait that can't be right
My quadruple patterns are still giving a 20% correction signal and an exact date in which to sell then to buy back in
PM if you are interested...you can pay at a later date, but don't make me send Bruno and Tony over to help you find your checkbook

 

[rcknfrewld]

ebb's cracking the whip forcing me to work OT tonight...
The Nikkei is down over 2.5% and continues to free fall.....the Bears are exhibiting restless leg syndrome...the first domino is tipping over but is it gonna reach Europe and then have enough momentum to touch us...my unbiased expert opinion says yes and my patterns (which are way better than my boss's cause I have incorporated, unbeknownst to him, another pattern) confirm this...all of you would have known this already if you had signed up for my primo service...