Ebb's Account Talk

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for June 17, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.76%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.56%; EFA (I-fund): +1.44%.

Monday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +1.09% (no FV expected).

TNA: +1.97% (YTD: +53.88%). The yo-yo string gets frayed a little bit more. :suspicious:

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

 

[rcknfrewld]

just when you start to over think this elusive fund...right on the number...evenflow, any signifigance, or just happenstance

 

[ebbnflow]

just when you start to over think this elusive fund...right on the number...evenflow, any signifigance, or just happenstance

Just happenstance, rckn. The I-fund's TSP price usually gets a daily price adjustment of about +0.03%. And when FVs occur (there's another price changer), especially back-to-back, price adjustments don't get factored in right away, so it accumulates.

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for June 18, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.78%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.93%; EFA (I-fund): +0.71%.

Tuesday's's MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -0.06%. No FV is expected, but if Japan's Nikkei futures are smoking hot, then the TSP overlords may consider tacking one on.

TNA: +3.41% (YTD: +59.13%). Runaway train: Bears think train wreck. Bulls see gravy train.

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

 

[rcknfrewld]

is our I fund price meaningless...just for show...if I'm in the I fund should I be tracking the MSCI number...we should be down today with the foreign markets all down...does the MSCI price take into account fair value...do the tsp overlords start with our I fund price or the MSCI number to calculate their price

 

[ebbnflow]

is our I fund price meaningless...just for show...if I'm in the I fund should I be tracking the MSCI number...we should be down today with the foreign markets all down...does the MSCI price take into account fair value...do the tsp overlords start with our I fund price or the MSCI number to calculate their price

The MSCI EAFE is the I-fund's gain for the day sans FV. The site usually posts the final update around 3:00 PM ET. Enter the date, click search and check EAFE.

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for June 18, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.78%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.93%; EFA (I-fund): +0.71%.

Tuesday's's MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -0.06%. No FV is expected, but if Japan's Nikkei futures are smoking hot, then the TSP overlords may consider tacking one on.

TNA: +3.41% (YTD: +59.13%). Runaway train: Bears think train wreck. Bulls see gravy train.

June 18, 2013

TSP stock funds rally: G +0.00%; F -0.01%; C +0.78%; S +0.94%; I +0.46%.
For the I-fund: A new FV (fair value) of +0.52% was added to Tuesday's MSCI EAFE of -0.06 (gain +0.46%), due to late market movements to the upside. So today, the I-funders will carry an FV baggage of -0.52% from the get-go. Note: Japan's Nikkei surged 2% during it's early morning session.

 

[ebbnflow]

June 18, 2013

TSP stock funds rally: G +0.00%; F -0.01%; C +0.78%; S +0.94%; I +0.46%.
For the I-fund: A new FV (fair value) of +0.52% was added to Tuesday's MSCI EAFE of -0.06 (gain +0.46%), due to late market movements to the upside. So today, the I-funders will carry an FV baggage of -0.52% from the get-go. Note: Japan's Nikkei surged 2% during it's early morning session.

Unofficial results for June 19, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): -1.39%; DWCPF (S-fund): -1.31%; EFA (I-fund): -1.83%.

Wednesday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.55% (-FV expected). If we add Tuesday's FV baggage of -0.52%, then the I-fund is up +0.03%. But the expected -FV (tonight) of more than a percent should keep all the funds in line with the losses.

TNA: -3.56% (YTD: +53.47%). WARNING: Train wreck up ahead! :suspicious:

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for June 19, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): -1.39%; DWCPF (S-fund): -1.31%; EFA (I-fund): -1.83%.

Wednesday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.55% (-FV expected). If we add Tuesday's FV baggage of -0.52%, then the I-fund is up +0.03%. But the expected -FV (tonight) of more than a percent should keep all the funds in line with the losses.

TNA: -3.56% (YTD: +53.47%). WARNING: Train wreck up ahead! :suspicious:

June 19, 2033

TSP stock funds sell off: G +0.00%; F -0.60%; C -1.38%; S -1.32%; I -1.87%.

For the I-fund: Tuesday's FV (fair value) baggage of -0.52% was added to Wednesday's MSCI EAFE of +0.55% (gain +0.03%). But due to the rising dollar and late market movements to the downside, a new FV of -1.90% got tacked onto the I-fund's final price. So today (Thursday), the I-funders will have an FV buffer of +1.90% against the overseas markets.

The C, S, and I-fund may have taken the heavy flak, but the F-fund came away with some collateral damage as well.

 

[bmneveu]

Wow today would have been a good one to jump in the I fund huh

 

[rcknfrewld]

careful with that knife bmneveu

 

[ebbnflow]

Wow today would have been a good one to jump in the I fund huh

7:05: My MSCI EAFE estimate was -2.90%, so even with Wednesday's FV buffer of +1.90%, the I-fund is still in the hole at -1%. :worried:

careful with that knife bmneveu

Haha. Falling knife, indeed.

 

[ebbnflow]

June 19, 2033

TSP stock funds sell off: G +0.00%; F -0.60%; C -1.38%; S -1.32%; I -1.87%.

For the I-fund: Tuesday's FV (fair value) baggage of -0.52% was added to Wednesday's MSCI EAFE of +0.55% (gain +0.03%). But due to the rising dollar and late market movements to the downside, a new FV of -1.90% got tacked onto the I-fund's final price. So today (Thursday), the I-funders will have an FV buffer of +1.90% against the overseas markets.

The C, S, and I-fund may have taken heavy flak, but the F-fund came away with some collateral damage as well.

Unofficial results for June 20, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): -2.50%; DWCPF (S-fund): -2.63%; EFA (I-fund): -3.67%.

Thursday's's MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -4.62% (-FV expected). If we add Wednesday's FV buffer of +1.90%, then the I-fund is down -2.72%. But the expected -FV (tonight) could push the I-fund loss at around -3.5%.

TNA: -8.00% (YTD: +41.31%). That's what happens when someone yells, "Fire In The Hole!"

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for June 20, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): -2.50%; DWCPF (S-fund): -2.63%; EFA (I-fund): -3.67%.

Thursday's's MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -4.62% (-FV expected). If we add Wednesday's FV buffer of +1.90%, then the I-fund is down -2.72%. But the expected -FV (tonight) could push the I-fund loss at around -3.5%.

TNA: -8.00% (YTD: +41.31%). That's what happens when someone yells, "Fire In The Hole!"

June 20, 2013

TSP stock funds sell off again: G +0.00%; F -0.62%; C -2.49%; S -2.64%; I -2.75%.

For the I-fund: Wednesdays FV (fair value) buffer of +1.90% was added to Thursday's MSCI EAFE of -4.62% (loss -2.72%). A price adjustment of -0.03% made it to the I-fund's final price. Today, the I-fund is all squared up.

Note: Clearly, there should have been a -FV for Thursday, but for some reason the TSP overlords exercised their prerogative to ignore it. At any rate, the only ones screwed are the I-fund jumpers who made the leap before noon. They don't get to have the +FV buffer against the overseas markets tonight.

 

[rcknfrewld]

shouldn't we get the leftover -fv from yesterday, today

 

[ebbnflow]

shouldn't we get the leftover -fv from yesterday, today

It only mattered to the I-fund jumpers who should have had a +FV buffer against the overseas markets, but didn't.

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for June 21, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.27%; DWCPF (S-fund): -0.05%; EFA (I-fund): +0.33%.

Friday's MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -0.68% (no FV expected). With the dollar up three-quarters of a percent, the TSP overlords would be hard-pressed to issue a +FV.

TNA: +0.73% (YTD: +42.34%). Have a safe and fun weekend!

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for June 24, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): -1.21%; DWCPF (S-fund): -1.21%; EFA (I-fund): -1.59%.

Monday's MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -1.67%. It's a toss up on the FV: Dow and S&P (no FV); DWCPF and EFA (+FV).

TNA: -4.08% (YTD: +36.84%). TNA using the double and triple patterns (YTD): +41.44% (only 5 moves all year). :nuts:

 

[burrocrat]

Unofficial results for June 24, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): -1.21%; DWCPF (S-fund): -1.21%; EFA (I-fund): -1.59%.

Monday's MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -1.67%. It's a toss up on the FV: Dow and S&P (no FV); DWCPF and EFA (+FV).

TNA: -4.08% (YTD: +36.84%). TNA using the double and triple patterns (YTD): +41.44% (only 5 moves all year). :nuts:

first, thanks for posting this info so soon after the market closes. i really like to check it every day and your numbers are pretty accurate for being unofficial.

why do you think C and S both finished exactly -1.21% today, that seems odd to me, does that happen often?

i really like the I fund fair value estimate, with the actual index performance and the currency fluctuation and the whim of tsp/blackrock variation you still manage to hit it pretty close. from what i understand that ability to project the next days +/- and hammer unlimited trades for a predicable % was what led to tsp board overlords to clamp down? there is nothing magical or illegal about it is there?

supposedly the strategy would still work but you could only do it once a month with tsp 2 trade limit? how often does a predictable 1% revaluation happen? could a person exclusively trade only that and net ~12% per year? what about private etfs or mutual funds in an outside account that track the same index but allow unlimited trades so long as not violating the 3 day unsettled funds rule? does that still work for those type of funds?

whoever came up with that strategy could make a fortune playing blackjack or poker with no regulatory concerns. brilliant!

 

[ebbnflow]

first, thanks for posting this info so soon after the market closes. i really like to check it every day and your numbers are pretty accurate for being unofficial.

why do you think C and S both finished exactly -1.21% today, that seems odd to me, does that happen often?

i really like the I fund fair value estimate, with the actual index performance and the currency fluctuation and the whim of tsp/blackrock variation you still manage to hit it pretty close. from what i understand that ability to project the next days +/- and hammer unlimited trades for a predicable % was what led to tsp board overlords to clamp down? there is nothing magical or illegal about it is there?

supposedly the strategy would still work but you could only do it once a month with tsp 2 trade limit? how often does a predictable 1% revaluation happen? could a person exclusively trade only that and net ~12% per year? what about private etfs or mutual funds in an outside account that track the same index but allow unlimited trades so long as not violating the 3 day unsettled funds rule? does that still work for those type of funds?

whoever came up with that strategy could make a fortune playing blackjack or poker with no regulatory concerns. brilliant!

Thanks for dropping by, burrocrat. Timing the FV for a possible one day jump in the I-fund has always been a crapshoot. You never know what your gonna get between 12:00 noon and closing time. Then, you have the TSP overlords to contend with. If they see folks taking advantage of it, they can, at their whim, leave you hanging dry. At any rate, I have found it best to trade long term based on market cycles.