Ebb's Account Talk

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Man, I am so interested in what you are doing but so lost. I understand the triple patterns but have read over and over trying to understand how to read your charts. Namely I don't get what the ratios or percentages in each daily column represent, nor the colors, nor the "stop". Can anyone help me see the light?
 
Mapper said:
Man, I am so interested in what you are doing but so lost. I understand the triple patterns but have read over and over trying to understand how to read your charts. Namely I don't get what the ratios or percentages in each daily column represent, nor the colors, nor the "stop". Can anyone help me see the light?
Click to expand...

Mapper, I'm assuming that you already know about the eight different patterns of the ebbchart. Four of the patterns have two or more green signals (bearish) and the other four have two or more red signals (bullish). You only have to know the pattern for the day on the ebbchart. At the end of the day, the other charts will reflect how the pattern did for the C, S, and I-fund.

The ratios that you speak of are actually win percentages for the patterns (see 2012-2013 chart). The big picture (see 2007-2013 chart): Bullish pattern 5/red-red-red shows a win percentage of 60% in the C, 59% in the S, and 57% in the I-fund. Bearish pattern 1/grn-grn-grn shows a win percentage of 53% in the C, 55% in the S, and 51% in the I-fund (as of Aug. 13, 2013).

It's like the Seasonality Charts (on steroid). :D
 
I'm still hopelessly lost. I get the W/L now, kind of..aside from the lower part and the 2012-2013 part. I still don't understand the "STOP", especially "stops" in the future, or color coding on the dated charts, or where on earth the "daily signal" fits into any of this.
 
Mapper said:
I'm still hopelessly lost. I get the W/L now, kind of..aside from the lower part and the 2012-2013 part. I still don't understand the "STOP", especially "stops" in the future, or color coding on the dated charts, or where on earth the "daily signal" fits into any of this.
Click to expand...

Mapper, I think we're making progress. The lower part of the 2012-2013 ebbtally chart is just the combined win percentage (C, S, I) of the pattern (1-8).

At the beginning, I only tried to get a buy/sell signal for the I-fund. The ebbchart patterns came about after I started getting signals for the C and S-fund, also. This is what sets the ebbchart apart from other systems. The patterns formed from the C, S, and I-fund enable the system to literally take a snapshot of the market. These patterns are quantifiable, so we can see how the patterns did over the years (see 2007-2013 ebbtally chart).

If you look at the ebbchart pattern for Aug. 16 (Friday), you'll see a green/buy signal for the C, a green/buy signal for the S, and a red-stop/sell signal for the I-fund. It's a bearish green pattern 2/grn-grn-red. There are only eight possible combinations.

The system no longer follows the daily signals. The double and triple patterns have taken over. The daily signals are taken from the 2007-2013 ebbtally chart. Example: Bullish red pattern 5/red-red-red has the best win percentage using the C-fund (60%), so C will be the daily signal. It's the G/F for all bearish green patterns.
 
ebbnflow said:
Mapper, I think we're making progress.
Click to expand...
Indeed, Thanks for taking your time with me. I'm still going to need to stare at the sheets a bit more and see what trips me up next but I think this clarification about the daily vs triple pattern signal is going to help a lot! :nuts:
ebbnflow said:
The system no longer follows the daily signals. The double and triple patterns have taken over. The daily signals are taken from the 2007-2013 ebbtally chart. Example: Bullish red pattern 5/red-red-red has the best win percentage using the C-fund (60%), so C will be the daily signal. It's the G/F for all bearish green patterns.
Click to expand...
 
Added a couple more patterns: EbbCharts. :D

We have a bearish double pattern (2-2) coming up this week (Wednesday-Thursday). The last three bearish-green DPs (2nd day) took losses in the S-fund, and all three happened this month (7-7, 1-1, 1-1). :worried:
 
Mapper said:
I'm still hopelessly lost. I get the W/L now, kind of..aside from the lower part and the 2012-2013 part. I still don't understand the "STOP", especially "stops" in the future, or color coding on the dated charts, or where on earth the "daily signal" fits into any of this.
Click to expand...

Mapper, I think you're referring to the double and triple patterns chart. The color coded numbers on the left side are the double and triple pattern entries. The latest entry (light-green color) was for the last triple pattern signal (7-7-7). It is light green in color because it is not a new bearish signal. The system just did a one day entry (Aug. 05) into equities for a bullish-red double pattern 5-5 (2nd day only, S-fund) and immediately went back to the sidelines the next day (Aug. 06).

The EbbCharts have been updated for Aug. 19, 2013. :D
 
ebbnflow said:
We have a bearish double pattern (2-2) coming up this week (Wednesday-Thursday). The last three bearish-green DPs (2nd day) took losses in the S-fund, and all three happened this month (7-7, 1-1, 1-1). :worried:
Click to expand...

The 1st day of the double pattern (2-2) is done, and as expected the market had issues. The 2nd day is tomorrow (Thursday) and it is also expected to be a down day (see double patterns chart).

I'll be updating the charts tonight: EbbCharts. :D
 
ebbnflow said:
The 1st day of the double pattern (2-2) is done, and as expected the market had issues. The 2nd day is tomorrow (Thursday) and it is also expected to be a down day (see double patterns chart).
Click to expand...

The last four double patterns (2nd day) were spot-on, but today's (Aug. 22/Thursday) pattern 2 missed its mark. We do have another bearish double pattern (1-1) coming to bat before the end of the month (Aug. 29-30).

The ebbcharts have been updated and all patterns for August are done: EbbCharts. :D
 
how do I get that blue sticky MSCI link to be on my account page at all times...maybe if I keep complementing Tom about his SS, he will develop an interactive avatar allowing me to click on it for an instant fund price...I get lost going to the MSCI page and I'm too lazy to keep on searching for it on your account
 
Mapper said:
I'm still hopelessly lost. I get the W/L now, kind of..aside from the lower part and the 2012-2013 part. I still don't understand the "STOP", especially "stops" in the future, or color coding on the dated charts, or where on earth the "daily signal" fits into any of this.
Click to expand...

Mapper my son, lost you are not, found you are, battle fought is battle lost, surrender to ebb, guidance gained, trust earned, patterns engulf, drown must you to reveal light, see the pattern, be the pattern, stop no, colored yes, wisdom achieved, fate sought
 
rcknfrewld said:
how do I get that blue sticky MSCI link to be on my account page at all times...maybe if I keep complementing Tom about his SS, he will develop an interactive avatar allowing me to click on it for an instant fund price...I get lost going to the MSCI page and I'm too lazy to keep on searching for it on your account
Click to expand...

Rckn, the best I can do is put it on my sig or you can put it on yours. :D
 
The best way to go with the ebbchart's double and triple patterns is to use the S-fund (gain +211.30%). My returns for the year suffered because I was foolish enough to use the I-fund at the beginning of the year. That said, below is the year-to-year result of the triple patterns using the S-fund. It's from 2007 thru 2013 only, so you can just imagine if boom year 2006 was included in this chart. Double patterns were also implemented recently. The amazing thing here -- not a single losing year! And, the only "rule" to follow is the triple pattern's 90-day cycle (see ebbchart primer).

Come to think of it, the system hasn't done that badly this year (+12.04%).

yearly_13.gif
 
Oops! I didn't realize the yearly chart above was still showing 50% S, 50% I (2007-2012). Fixed to show 100% S (much better). :D
 
ebbnflow said:
...And, the only "rule" to follow is the triple pattern's 90-day cycle (see ebbchart primer).
Click to expand...

I'll save folks the time to find this out. :D

Current triple pattern: Bearish green pattern 7-7-7 (June 12, 2013). Strong 90-day cycle ends on Sep. 09, 2013. During this period, any opposing bullish pattern showing up will be invalidated and flagged as a false signal.

Note: Triple patterns are aberrations or anomalies that mark turning points in the market, and need to unwind its bear or bull cycle phase, hence the importance of the 90-day cycle.
 
The charts are updated daily, so do check in on this link: EbbCharts. :)

We do have a bearish green double pattern (1-1) that started yesterday. On average, the 1st day shows a win percentage of 58%, but then drops to 51% in it's 2nd day. The stat on double pattern 1-1 is still elevated with the 1st day hitting 69%, then drops down significantly to 57% the 2nd day (see DP chart). There is a tendency to get a reversal -- positive yesterday (1st day), so I'm expecting a negative day today (2nd day). :D

I'm still enjoying the summer and finding time to create a website for the ebbcharts is not a priority at the moment. This is going to be my new hobby and I'm going to learn as much as I can about it. In the meantime, here's next week's patterns:

ebb_09_13.gif
 
ebbnflow said:
The charts are updated daily, so do check in on this link: EbbCharts. :)

We do have a bearish green double pattern (1-1) that started yesterday. On average, the 1st day shows a win percentage of 58%, but then drops to 51% in its 2nd day. The stat on double pattern 1-1 is still elevated with the 1st day hitting 69%, then drops down significantly to 57% the 2nd day (see DP chart). There is a tendency to get a reversal -- positive yesterday (1st day), so I'm expecting a negative day today (2nd day). :D
Click to expand...

That's another double pattern getting it right (2nd day in the S-fund). I can't remember having this many DPs appear within a month (5 of 6 hit the target). Results of the patterns:

Bullish red pattern 5-5 (Aug. 2-5): +0.11% (S-fund). Correct.
Bearish green pattern 7-7 (Aug. 6-7): -0.64% (G-fund). Correct.
Bearish green pattern 1-1 (Aug. 8-9): -0.01% (G-fund). Correct.
Bearish green pattern 1-1 (Aug. 13-14): -0.49% (G-fund). Correct.
Bearish green pattern 2-2 (Aug. 21-22): +1.26% (G-fund). Wrong.
Bearish green pattern 1-1 (Aug. 29-30): -1.21% (G-fund). Correct.

Link: Double-Patterns Chart.
 
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