Ebb's Account Talk

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It looks like the I-fund will be the only fund to escape today's sell-off. MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.18%, and I don't think there will be any -FV tacked onto the I-fund's price tonight.

Note (see chart above): Monday's results (C +0.41%, S +0.46%, I +0.26%) will be combined with today's prices. :)
 
We have the 2nd day of double pattern 4-4 today. Its 1st day (last Friday) had a win percentage of 67% (10/15) in the S-fund and that day turned out positive.. Its 2nd day only has a win percentage of 33% (5/15), so I'm expecting a down day today. Using the S-fund with the triple patterns has produced a gain of over +213% in seven years (seven moves) and no losing years. That said, the +12.94% gain this year for the S-fund strategy has been disappointing, but you have to learn to take the bad with the good.

The market cycle of emotions has been stuck between THRILL and EUPHORIC for some time now. The roller coaster has never made it to the top, which is needed for the bear market to start. You can bet this market is manipulated and a big part of that lies on our dysfunctional Congress. They haven't passed a solid budget bill in three years and would rather play kick the can than act responsibly and come up with a solution everyone can live with.

After this month, I won't be updating the ebbcharts over here on TSPTalk anymore. My website (same name as the ebbcharts, doh) is up for a while now -- took me two weeks of research and a week to put it together. It's still a work in progress, but if you decide to make your own site, just let me know and I'll pass on what I've learned.
 
I don't know how the day is going to end, but with today's pattern (8/red-green-red), the 7-yr. ebbtally chart says that it has a win percentage of 54% in the C, 52% in the S, and 56% in the I-fund. That means the chart expects the S-fund to lag the other funds.

Although the system doesn't follow the daily signals, it's still good to know what the ebbchart patterns are expecting on any given day. Remember, each pattern has now captured more than 200+ market days (since 2007), and will continue to carve out its own signature.

By the way, my guess for the MSCI EAFE for today is +0.24%, so even though the EFA shows a loss, I think there will be a gain on the I-fund (barring any -FV showing up, of course).
 
ebbnflow said:
I don't know how the day is going to end, but with today's pattern (8/red-green-red), the 7-yr. ebbtally chart says that it has a win percentage of 54% in the C, 52% in the S, and 56% in the I-fund. That means the chart expects the S-fund to lag the other funds.

Although the system doesn't follow the daily signals, it's still good to know what the ebbchart patterns are expecting on any given day. Remember, each pattern has now captured more than 200+ market days (since 2007), and will continue to carve out its own signature.

By the way, my guess for the MSCI EAFE for today is +0.24%, so even though the EFA shows a loss, I think there will be a gain on the I-fund (barring any -FV showing up, of course).
Click to expand...

Unoffial result: C +0.13%; S -0.20%; I +0.23% (no FV expected).

I consider guessing the MSCI EAFE within (+/-) 0.20% a good guess. :)
 
ebbnflow said:
I don't know how the day is going to end, but with today's pattern (8/red-green-red), the 7-yr. ebbtally chart says that it has a win percentage of 54% in the C, 52% in the S, and 56% in the I-fund. That means the chart expects the S-fund to lag the other funds.

Although the system doesn't follow the daily signals, it's still good to know what the ebbchart patterns are expecting on any given day. Remember, each pattern has now captured more than 200+ market days (since 2007), and will continue to carve out its own signature.

By the way, my guess for the MSCI EAFE for today is +0.24%, so even though the EFA shows a loss, I think there will be a gain on the I-fund (barring any -FV showing up, of course).
Click to expand...

.22% very close...sometimes your system works wonder..
 
Tuesday's pattern 1/green-green-green is kind of strange. The 7-yr. ebbtally chart says that it has a win percentage of 54% in the C, 56% in the S, but only 51% in the I-fund. That means the chart expects the I-fund to lag the other funds. If the I-fund doesn't get any +FV tonight, then the pattern would be right on target.

Unofficial result: C +0.56%; S +0.27%; I -0.12%. The TSP overlords won't tack on a +FV for the I-fund, especially with the dollar showing a gain of +0.38%.
 
ebbnflow said:
Tuesday's pattern 1/green-green-green is kind of strange. The 7-yr. ebbtally chart says that it has a win percentage of 54% in the C, 56% in the S, but only 51% in the I-fund. That means the chart expects the I-fund to lag the other funds. If the I-fund doesn't get any +FV tonight, then the pattern would be right on target.

Unofficial result: C +0.56%; S +0.27%; I -0.12%. The TSP overlords won't tack on a +FV for the I-fund, especially with the dollar showing a gain of +0.38%.
Click to expand...

Oops! Nevermind. We actually have a pattern 2/green-green-red for today (Tuesday). Win percentage: C 56%; S 53%; I 54%. Pattern 1 is for Wednesday (got cross-eyed or something). :embarrest:
 
Even though the EFA is showing a loss, my MSCI EAFE guesstimate is at +0.27% for today. So, if there is no -FV tonight, then the I-fund will end up positive. :)
 
law87 said:
Where do you go to get the Ifund data before market close?
Click to expand...

You can click the MSCI EAFE link in my sig below at around 3:00 PM (the day's result is usually posted by then). Make sure you change the calendar date once you get in. Look for the EAFE (first row), and under DAY will be the I-fund's price sans any FV tacked on.
 
EFA is showing a loss of only -0.30% as of 1:00 PM ET. I have the MSCI EAFE at -0.90%, so it's looking like a very bad day for the I-fund unless the market gets a big rebound this afternoon.
 
ebbnflow said:
EFA is showing a loss of only -0.30% as of 1:00 PM ET. I have the MSCI EAFE at -0.90%, so it's looking like a very bad day for the I-fund unless the market gets a big rebound this afternoon.
Click to expand...

And down the drain she goes.

Unofficial result: C -0.38%; S -0.23%; I -0.81% (no FV expected). Missed the MSCI EAFE by -0.09%. :D
 
Updating the October ebbcharts here at TSPTalk and my site is a pain, so I'm glad that's over. You can PM me if you have questions about the new repository for the November ebbcharts, or send me an email at ebbtsp@gmail.com. :)
 
One way I try to find out how the funds are going to fare today is by checking on the daily ebbchart pattern's win percentage.

Today (Friday): Pattern 3/green-red-red. Win Percentage: C 57%; S 56%; I 54%. The 7-yr. ebbtally suggests that the C-fund may fare better than the other funds.

The win percentage only shows the bias of funds in relation to the ebbchart pattern (after 7 years of data collection). The pattern may gain or lose for the day, but the win percentage offers more clue as to why this or that fund did what. :)

ebbtally_13.gif
 
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Not to worry, I-funders. Even though the EFA shows only a gain of +0.08% (@1:25 PM ET), my MSCI EAFE guesstimate has it closer to a +0.48% gain. :)

Note: Japan's Nikkei market is closed for a holiday.
 
EFA shows a gain of +0.87% (@12:03 PM). My MSCI EAFE guesstimate is at +0.70%.

Some of the ebbchart patterns are more interesting due to the big win-percentage discrepancy it exhibits. Here's what I'm talking about.

Today (Wednesday): Pattern 8/red-green-red. Win Percentage (54.0%): C 55%; S 52%; I 56%. The 7-year ebbtally chart (see chart below) says that it's not healthy to be in the S-fund today.

There are two other patterns showing a difference of at least 4% between funds -- pattern 1/green-green-green (S 55%, I 51%) and pattern 7/red-green-green (C 55%, I 48%).

Now don't get me wrong, with only 8 patterns to capture a snapshot of the market daily, I don't expect the patterns to get it right each day. It's the tendencies that I'm looking for. :D

ebbtally_13.gif
 
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Missed the actual MCSI EAFE (+0.69%) by only +0.01% yesterday. My early MSCI EAFE guesstimate (@8.50 AM) is for a loss of -0.60% in the I-fund. The dollar has spiked more than a percent (due to ECB rate cut), so it cancels out any gains from the European markets.

I'm just going to reprint what's on my site here:

Today (Thursday): Pattern 1/green-green-green. Win Percentage (53.3%): C 53%; S 55%; I 51%. The 7-year ebbtally (see chart above) says to avoid the I-fund at all cost today.

Note: With only 8 patterns available to capture a snapshot of the daily market, I don't expect the patterns to get it right every time. It's the tendencies that I'm looking for. :D
 
ebbnflow said:
Missed the actual MCSI EAFE (+0.69%) by only +0.01% yesterday. My early MSCI EAFE guesstimate (@8.50 AM) is for a loss of -0.60% in the I-fund. The dollar has spiked more than a percent (due to ECB rate cut), so it cancels out any gains from the European markets.

I'm just going to reprint what's on my site here:

Today (Thursday): Pattern 1/green-green-green. Win Percentage (53.3%): C 53%; S 55%; I 51%. The 7-year ebbtally (see chart above) says to avoid the I-fund at all cost today.

Note: With only 8 patterns available to capture a snapshot of the daily market, I don't expect the patterns to get it right every time. It's the tendencies that I'm looking for. :D
Click to expand...


can you give the forecast 2-3 days in advance, really doesnt help TSP if you give the day of.
 
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