Ebb's Account Talk

[DreamboatAnnie]

Mapper, I think we're making progress. The lower part of the 2012-2013 ebbtally chart is just the combined win percentage (C, S, I) of the pattern (1-8).

At the beginning, I only tried to get a buy/sell signal for the I-fund. The ebbchart patterns came about after I started getting signals for the C and S-fund, also. This is what sets the ebbchart apart from other systems. The patterns formed from the C, S, and I-fund enable the system to literally take a snapshot of the market. These patterns are quantifiable, so we can see how the patterns did over the years (see 2007-2013 ebbtally chart).

If you look at the ebbchart pattern for Aug. 16 (Friday), you'll see a green/buy signal for the C, a green/buy signal for the S, and a red-stop/sell signal for the I-fund. It's a bearish green pattern 2/grn-grn-red. There are only eight possible combinations.

The system no longer follows the daily signals. The double and triple patterns have taken over. The daily signals are taken from the 2007-2013 ebbtally chart. Example: Bullish red pattern 5/red-red-red has the best win percentage using the C-fund (60%), so C will be the daily signal. It's the G/F for all bearish green patterns.

Hi Ebb... So if you have a triple pattern (.ie.. 3 red signals for S , C, and I fund for 3 consecutive days ) you buy the fund with the highest win percentage?? And you keep invested that way for 90 days, unless another triple pattern hits?

Example: If it is 3 consecutive green day for all three funds, this is considered bearish and you move funds to G or F for 90 days. If it is Red triple pattern it is considered bullish, and you buy into market for 90 days. Is that correct or do I have it backwards???

On the double patterns ( 2 of 3 funds were the same for 2 consecutive days) you are just using that to figure a good day to enter and exit for a day.???

 

[ebbnflow]

Hi Ebb... So if you have a triple pattern (.ie.. 3 red signals for S , C, and I fund for 3 consecutive days ) you buy the fund with the highest win percentage?? And you keep invested that way for 90 days, unless another triple pattern hits?

Annie, you are correct. Your example of 3 red signals for the S, C, and I-Fund for 3 consecutive days means that the ebbchart has a bullish triple pattern 5-5-5. But, we don't buy the fund with the highest win percentage. The double/triple pattern strategy only uses the S-fund in order to maximize gains. If you check out the yearly chart above, only the S-fund allocation is used for equities.

Example: If it is 3 consecutive green day for all three funds, this is considered bearish and you move funds to G or F for 90 days. If it is Red triple pattern it is considered bullish, and you buy into market for 90 days. Is that correct or do I have it backwards???

That's right, the system is contrarian. And, the triple pattern has to unwind its bear or bull cycle phase, so this is where its strong 90-day cycle comes in. The system is locked in buy or sell mode for 90 days, but can go on much longer if no opposing triple pattern shows up.

On the double patterns ( 2 of 3 funds were the same for 2 consecutive days) you are just using that to figure a good day to enter and exit for a day.???

Example of a bullish double pattern 6-6: pattern 6/red-red-grn and another pattern 6/red-red-grn appearing in consecutive days.
Example of a bearish double pattern 4-4: pattern 4/grn-red-grn and another pattern 4/grn-red-grn appearing the next day.
It allows the system to move in or out of equities for just one day (2nd day, S-fund) regardless of the triple pattern.

And thanks for the questions, Annie!

 

[ebbnflow]

Double patterns have a 2-day cycle that can be taken advantage of. Bullish red DPs hit the trough (bottom) on the 1st day, and reach its crest (top) by the 2nd day. Conversely, bearish green DPs reach its crest on the 1st day, and hit the trough by the 2nd day. The 3rd and 4th day of the chart are for triple and quadruple patterns (not used, needs more data).

Link: Double-Patterns Chart.

 

[ebbnflow]

According to the daily ebbchart patterns for September, the best days this week were Tuesday (pattern 5/C-red, S-red, I-red) and Wednesday (pattern 6/C-red, S-red, I-grn). Yesterday was a good day and it looks like today will turn out positive, also.

But, starting tomorrow a couple of bearish green patterns are on tap. We have the worst pattern for the I-fund on Thursday (pattern 7/C-red, S-grn, I-grn), with a win percentage of only 48% (see '07 - '13 ebbtally chart). And Friday (pattern 4/C-grn, S-red, I-grn) doesn't look that promising, either. :worried:

Link: September EbbChart.

 

[ebbnflow]

I was in a chipper mood today, so all of next week's ebbchart patterns were done and added to the link below.

Link: September EbbChart.

 

[ebbnflow]

According to the daily ebbchart patterns for September, the best days this week were Tuesday (pattern 5/C-red, S-red, I-red) and Wednesday (pattern 6/C-red, S-red, I-grn). Yesterday was a good day and it looks like today will turn out positive, also.

But, starting tomorrow a couple of bearish green patterns are on tap. We have the worst pattern for the I-fund on Thursday (pattern 7/C-red, S-grn, I-grn), with a win percentage of only 48% (see '07 - '13 ebbtally chart).

True to form, pattern 7 (C-red, S-grn, I-grn) handed the I-fund a losing day. The loss may be insignificant (-0.03%), but it still counts on the tally.

 

[ebbnflow]

Announcement: Due to a change in one of the cycles that I follow for timing purposes, the ebbchart patterns for Sep. 06-13 had to be rerun. As a result, the revised patterns turned out a rare quadruple pattern 7-7-7-7 (Sep. 05-10). The ebbcharts have had only 3 other quadruple patterns in almost 7 years (2007-2013).

Bearish pattern 4-4-4-4 (Dec. 07, 2007 - Jan. 31, 2008): -8.67% (S-fund).

Bullish pattern 3-3-3-3 (Jan. 20, 2009 - Apr. 17, 2009): +5.22% (S-fund). Note: This opposing pattern was invalidated and flagged as a false signal because it appeared during the strong 90-day cycle of bearish pattern 7-7-7 (Nov. 07, 2008). Nevertheless, the pattern produced positive gains.

Bullish pattern 3-3-3-3 (Sep. 23, 2011 - Oct. 26, 2011): +11.64% (S-fund).

So far, the QPs are batting 100%. One more thing, the 90-day cycle resets for the new pattern.
I think the ebbchart has run amok, but it's definitely trying to tell us something.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Ebb, I find your data fascinating. Since I have the brain of an approximate 10 year old, I still don't understand it all, but I do find it fascinating. There seems to be so many moving parts that my eyes glaze over after trying to understand it all. I know that it must seem elementary to you. Perhaps I should re-read your primer a few times and see if anything sinks in. Is your data based on statistical analysis?

 

[ebbnflow]

Ebb, I find your data fascinating. Since I have the brain of an approximate 10 year old, I still don't understand it all, but I do find it fascinating. There seems to be so many moving parts that my eyes glaze over after trying to understand it all. I know that it must seem elementary to you. Perhaps I should re-read your primer a few times and see if anything sinks in. Is your data based on statistical analysis?

MrJohnRoss, ain't that the truth, what's obvious to me may not be to others! There are a lot of moving parts in the ebbcharts, but the trick is in understanding that only one pattern gets updated each day. In our case today (Sep. 06/Friday), it's pattern 7 (C-red, S-grn, I-grn). If you save all six ebbchart images in a Word.doc, folder or desktop, then save the images again (don't forget to rename) after I do the updates tonight, you'll find changes made to pattern 7, and that pattern alone. Check the differences between the charts (before and after updates), and you'll discover that I'm simply tallying results for the pattern (win percentages, gains/losses).

Let's face it, technical analysis hasn't evolved much in decades. You won't find any technical analysis coming from the ebbcharts. The numbers from TA are all done behind the background and already processed with each green or red signal we get for the C, S, and I-fund. Yep, the ebbchart patterns take it to another level (I guess that's why it works). The data (compiled since 2007) are evidence-based stats -- no room for anecdotal evidence here.

 

[ebbnflow]

This is the bulls giving the bears a wedgie.

 

[ebbnflow]

New ebbchart patterns for next week: September EbbChart.

I have mentioned before (as a premium service) that actual days occupied by a triple/quadruple pattern doesn't necessarily start out good or bad (it is after all, a long-term indicator). I say, let the other folks figure out for themselves the futility of timing the market like a day trader. I know it won't stop them from trying -- as long as there's a 5% chance of success (95% will fail). Yep, as luck would have it, 5% will be lucky enough to succeed. But, for how long, is the question. Going up against high-frequency traders and institutions, the odds are stacked against you, especially in the short term. Better to think long term, my friend.

There is a bullish double pattern 3-3 next week, so watch out for a one day stint in equities (S-fund). High probability of winning (68%) on the 2nd day (Sep. 19/Thursday).

Link: Double-Patterns Chart

 

[rcknfrewld]

beautiful perspective there ebb, I see you are finally grasping the philosophy I have been trying to instill in you all these years...you make me proud...my work here is done
p.s. thanks for the MSCI thingy

 

[ebbnflow]

New ebbchart patterns for next week: September EbbChart.

I have mentioned before (as a premium service) that actual days occupied by a triple/quadruple pattern doesn't necessarily start out good or bad (it is after all, a long-term indicator). I say, let the other folks figure out for themselves the futility of timing the market like a day trader. I know it won't stop them from trying -- as long as there's a 5% chance of success (95% will fail). Yep, as luck would have it, 5% will be lucky enough to succeed. But, for how long, is the question. Going up against high-frequency traders and institutions, the odds are stacked against you, especially in the short term. Better to think long term, my friend.

There is a bullish double pattern 3-3 next week, so watch out for a one day stint in equities (S-fund). High probability of winning (68%) on the 2nd day (Sep. 19/Thursday).

Link: Double-Patterns Chart

Dang, just found out I had to rerun the ebbchart patterns for Sep. 17-20 (all done). Revisions don't happen often, but I can't recall doing it twice in a month, either.

By the way, the double pattern disappeared from the ebbchart, so there's no IFT next week.

 

[ebbnflow]

The last value from QE3 (+11%), has now ballooned to +16.5%, as of Sep. 17, 2013.

 

[rcknfrewld]

Ebb...you got some splainin' to do...WTFIUWTIFund

 

[ebbnflow]

Ebb...you got some splainin' to do...WTFIUWTIFund

Thursday's I-fund: -0.43%.

Haha...Wednesday's MSCI EAFE was +0.61%. That night, the I-fund gained +2.96%, so that means a positive FV of +2.35% got tacked on (Thursday's I-fund owes -2.35%). Thursday's MSCI EAFE was +1.91%, and if we subtract -2.35% the I-fund owes, then we get -0.44% (close enough).

 

[rcknfrewld]

ebb....you are full of poop...I was just testing you to see if you even remembered what the I fund was you I fund tease...you passed, but only barely

 

[ebbnflow]

Building a website is definitely outside my comfort zone, but I finally managed to register a domain name and sign up for web hosting account, so it won't be long now before I get to be a W-E-B-M-A-S-T-E-R...hahaha! Dang feels like being a wizard on a quest -- Dungeons and Monsters, anyone? This new hobby of mine could very well turn out to be both fun and educational. At any rate, here's the ebbchart for October:

 

[ebbnflow]

Taper talk has tapered so I'm moving back to the freezer today (F-fund).

As to what the market will do in the short term, I don't know and I don't care (chorus).

 

[ebbnflow]

We have a new triple pattern -- bearish green pattern 1-1-1 (Oct. 3-7). That's 4 consecutive bearish triple patterns in 6 months (Apr. 02 - Oct. 03, 2013). The most bearish triple patterns we've had was 4 in just 3 months (Dec. 07, 2007 - Mar. 10, 2008). Back then, the S-fund lost -40%. This year, it's a gain of +14%. I don't know how it's going to pan out in the long run, but something has got to give.

Links: Double/Triple Patterns Chart; October Chart.

Note: I don't see the Oct. 07 - Oct. 11 ebbchart patterns. I'll try uploading the chart again.