Ebb's Account Talk

[ebbnflow]

can you give the forecast 2-3 days in advance, really doesnt help TSP if you give the day of.

I can't keep posting my ebbcharts here because it takes too much time updating. The new repository for the ebbcharts (patterns are given days in advance) is located at my website -- which happens to have the same name as the ebbcharts. I even gave my email address right on this page if you're having problems locating it.

 

[ebbnflow]

EFA is showing a loss of -0.93% (@12:02 PM) for the I-fund. My MSCI EAFE guesstimate is almost the same at -0.92%.

 

[ebbnflow]

The best action movie I've seen all year is a foreign film from S. Korea. It came out in 2010, but I just saw it on Netflix. The movie's title is "The Man from Nowhere." It's about a pawnshop guy who tries to save his only friend -- a poor little girl.

If you don't have Netflix, go to YouTube and search for ajeossi. That's what the little girl calls her next door neighbor (it's Korean for mister). See it now before it disappears from Netflix or YouTube (4 parts, 30 mins. each).

 

[Gamer]

If you liked "The Man from Nowhere", then you will definitely like "I Saw the Devil" and "No Mercy", also South Korean movies on Netflix streaming. Highly recommend!

 

[ebbnflow]

EFA is only showing a loss of -0.09% (@10:05 AM) for the I-fund. My MSCI EAFE guesstimate is at -1.20%, so that's a big discrepancy right there. The I-fund should have gotten a -FV yesterday, so maybe the EFA is just reflecting the numbers as if it did.

 

[ebbnflow]

EFA is only showing a loss of -0.09% (@10:05 AM) for the I-fund. My MSCI EAFE guesstimate is at -1.20%, so that's a big discrepancy right there. The I-fund should have gotten a -FV yesterday, so maybe the EFA is just reflecting the numbers as if it did.

Correction: Early MSCI EAFE guesstimate should have been -0.92% (not -1.20%).

EFA shows a gain of +0.34% (@12:00 PM). My MSCI EAFE guesstimate shows a loss of -0.63% for the I-fund. :worried:

 

[ebbnflow]

EFA shows a gain of +0.34% (@12:00 PM). My MSCI EAFE guesstimate shows a loss of -0.63% for the I-fund. :worried:

It's official, MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -0.54% for the I-fund.

 

[Boomer01]

You state that the I fund shows a loss of -0.63, but the chart at the bottom of the page shows a .59% Gain. Obviously, I'm missing something?

 

[Boomer01]

I should have said that you state that the I fund shows a loss of -0.54, but the chart at the bottom of the page shows a .59% Gain. Obviously, I'm missing something? I'm still learning and I'm trying to understand the variance.

 

[Handballer]

Another good one is The swimmer, made in 1968, staring Burt Lancaster. Dressed only in swimming trunks throughout the film, Burt Lancaster plays a wealthy, middle-aged advertising man, embarked on a long and revelatory journey through suburban Connecticut.

 

[law87]

I should have said that you state that the I fund shows a loss of -0.54, but the chart at the bottom of the page shows a .59% Gain. Obviously, I'm missing something? I'm still learning and I'm trying to understand the variance.

the chart below dont always track the right price, if you click on the link on ebb signature

MSCI EAFE

it'll provide a better price... even that, sometime there is a Fair Value add in too so its not 100% accurate

 

[ebbnflow]

I should have said that you state that the I fund shows a loss of -0.54, but the chart at the bottom of the page shows a .59% Gain. Obviously, I'm missing something? I'm still learning and I'm trying to understand the variance.

The MSCI EAFE (-0.54%) tracks the gain or loss in the I-fund sans FV. Final TSP price of the I-fund tonight shows a loss of only -0.01%. That means due to late market action to the upside, a +FV of +0.53% got tacked onto the I-fund's price. So on Monday, the I-fund will carry an FV baggage of -0.53% from the get-go.

 

[JTH]

The MSCI EAFE (-0.54%) tracks the gain or loss in the I-fund sans FV. Final TSP price of the I-fund tonight shows a loss of only -0.01%. That means due to late market action to the upside, a +FV of +0.53% got tacked onto the I-fund's price. So on Monday, the I-fund will carry an FV baggage of -0.53% from the get-go.

Ya know one of these days, you'll get tired of answering this questions and post it on your signature block :toung:

 

[ebbnflow]

The best action movie I've seen all year is a foreign film from S. Korea. It came out in 2010, but I just saw it on Netflix. The movie's title is "The Man from Nowhere." It's about a pawnshop guy who tries to save his only friend -- a poor little girl.

If you don't have Netflix, go to YouTube and search for ajeossi. That's what the little girl calls her next door neighbor (it's Korean for mister). See it now before it disappears from Netflix or YouTube (4 parts, 30 mins. each).

Dang, that was fast. The movie was there on YouTube for a long time and now I can't find it. Here's the trailer in case you want to check it out on Netflix.

 

[ebbnflow]

The MSCI EAFE (-0.54%) tracks the gain or loss in the I-fund sans FV. Final TSP price of the I-fund tonight shows a loss of only -0.01%. That means due to late market action to the upside, a +FV of +0.53% got tacked onto the I-fund's price. So on Monday, the I-fund will carry an FV baggage of -0.53% from the get-go.

EFA shows a gain of +0.15% (@12:00 PM). My MSCI EAFE guesstimate is for a gain of +0.67% in the I-fund sans FV. The EFA must have factored in the FV baggage of -0.53% already.

 

[ebbnflow]

EFA shows a gain of +0.15% (@12:00 PM). My MSCI EAFE guesstimate is for a gain of +0.67% in the I-fund sans FV. The EFA must have factored in the FV baggage of -0.53% already.

EFA ends with a gain of +0.18%. Actual MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.59%, so if we take out Friday's FV baggage of -0.53%, then the I-fund is up +0.06% this Monday (C +0.07%, S +0.27%).

 

[gronk007]

Ebb...would you mind explaining the concept of FV and how it relates to the TSP I fund prices being different than the closing EFA prices? Where do you go to find the FV value and when is it available in the day?

Thanks!

 

[ebbnflow]

Ebb...would you mind explaining the concept of FV and how it relates to the TSP I fund prices being different than the closing EFA prices? Where do you go to find the FV value and when is it available in the day?

Thanks!

The FV arises from the late market action between noon (overseas markets close) and 4:00 PM (US market close). The MSCI EAFE (sans FV) tracks the I-fund, so you can check out its final value around 3:00 PM (click it on my sig). Then check the gain/loss for the I-fund tonight, and the difference between the two should be the FV. Whatever the amount, it's given back the next day.

By the way, my MSCI EAFE guesstimate shows a gain of +0.80% for the I-fund (EFA @12:20 PM +0.56%).

 

[ebbnflow]

It seems that the final MSCI EAFE is being posted an hour earlier than usual due to daylight savings time. Check it a little after 2:00 PM from now on. I got the final post at 2:03 PM, and it shows a gain of +0.65% for the I-fund.

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results: C +0.50%; S +0.45%; I +0.39%.

The 7-year ebbtally chart shows the win percentages of the C, S, and I-fund for the daily ebbchart pattern. It sure is good to see when everything goes as expected.

Today's pattern (Friday): Pattern 3/green-red-red. Win Percentage (56.1%): C 58%; S 56%; I 55% (see ebtally chart). The 7-yr. ebbtally chart (2007-2013) says it's good for the C, S, and I-fund today (especially for the C-fund). For comparison, the S&P 500 holds a win percentage of 55.0% during the same 7-year period. The system doesn't follow the daily signals on the ebbchart. It's the long-term indicators (triple/quadruple patterns) that's important and used by the TSP system for entry/exit points.