Ebb's Account Talk

[ebbnflow]

Comparison of the current year's ebbtally (2013) and the 7-year ebbtally (2007-2013). The win percentages of the patterns (1-8) in the C, S, and I-fund are shown below. And as we can see, the patterns continue to capture trends and biases among the different funds.

Pat. 1/GGG 2013: C 25/38 66%; S 24/38 63%; I 21/38 55%. '07-'13: C 126/236 53%; S 130/235 55%; I 119/235 51%.
The I-fund continues to lag the other funds.

Pat. 2/GGR 2013: C 17/26 65%; S 15/26 58%; I 17/26 65%. '07-'13: C 125/225 56%; S 118/226 52%; I 121/225 54%.
The S-fund continues to lag the other funds.

Pat. 3/GRR 2013: C 19/24 79%; S 19/24 79%; I 15/24 63%. '07-'13: C 111/192 58%; S 110/195 56%; I 107/195 55%.
The C and S-fund continue to lead the I-fund.

Pat. 4/GRG 2013: C 18/28 64%; S 19/28 68%; I 14/28 50%. '07-'13: C 119/213 56%; S 117/215 54%; I 119/217 55%.
Nothing, except the I-fund being much lower.

Pat. 5/RRR 2013: C 13/21 62%; S 13/21 62%; I 13/21 62%. '07-'13: C 122/205 60%; S 123/207 59%; I 121/208 58%.
The C, S, and I-fund continue to excel.

Pat. 6/RRG 2013: C 17/30 57%; S 19/30 63%; I 17/30 57%. '07-'13: C 119/227 52%; S 122/227 54%; I 119/226 53%.
The S-fund continues to lead the other funds.

Pat. 7/RGG 2013: C 14/31 45%; S 18/32 56%; I 15/32 47%. '07-'13: C 106/196 54%; S 104/92 53%; I 94/196 48%.
The I-fund continues to take a beating.

Pat. 8/RGR 2013: C 14/28 50%; S 11/28 39%; I 16/28 57%. '07-'13: C 120/219 55%; S 113/220 51%; I 123/219 56%.
The C and I-fund continue to lead the S-fund.

2013 EbbTally Chart

2007-2013 EbbTally Chart

 

[ebbnflow]

With no bullish double patterns to take advantage of (the entire month), I nearly pulled the trigger in going to the S-fund today (one day stay only). Pattern 5/red-red-red was the pattern of the day and it has the highest win percentage amongst all the ebbchart patterns (1-8). The S-fund gained +0.53% today.

I have calculated the odds of turning up a red or green signal for the C, S, and I-fund that makes up a pattern. A couple of years ago it would have been 50-50, but now it's 50-46 in favor of bearish green signals. That explains why this year, bearish pattern 1/grn-grn-grn showed up 38 times compared with only 22 for bullish pattern 5/red-red-red. And why the last four triple patterns had all been bearish green patterns. And like I said before, the Fed's QE has interrupted the market cycle of emotions (it's been stuck between THRILL and EUPHORIA). :suspicious:

 

[ebbnflow]

With no bullish double patterns to take advantage of (the entire month), I nearly pulled the trigger in going to the S-fund today (one day stay only). Pattern 5/red-red-red was the pattern of the day and it has the highest win percentage amongst all the ebbchart patterns (1-8). The S-fund gained +0.53% today.

I have calculated the odds of turning up a red or green signal for the C, S, and I-fund that makes up a pattern. A couple of years ago it would have been 50-50, but now it's 50-46 in favor of bearish green signals. That explains why this year, bearish pattern 1/grn-grn-grn showed up 38 times compared with only 22 for bullish pattern 5/red-red-red. And why the last four triple patterns had all been bearish green patterns. And like I said before, the Fed's QE has interrupted the market cycle of emotions (it's been stuck between THRILL and EUPHORIA). :suspicious:

Oops, that should be 54-46 in favor of bearish green signals. The red and green signals I get for the C, S, and I-fund reflect market sentiment (which is mainly derived from price and volume).

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results: C -0.12%; S -0.04%; I -1.08% (MSCI EAFE).

Don't expect any +FV tonight in the I-fund (ouch). :worried:

 

[ebbnflow]

Double-Pattern Alert: Today and tomorrow, the ebbchart is showing a double pattern 4-4. According to the double-patterns chart (bottom), the 1st day (Dec. 09) has a winning percentage of 69%, but the 2nd day (Dec. 10) drops down to only 31%.

Today's pattern (Monday): Pattern 4/green-red-green. Win Percentage (54.9%): C 56%; S 54%; I 55% (see 3rd chart below). The 7-yr. ebbtally chart (2007-2013) says this bearish green pattern does well with the C and I-fund. This year, it's doing better in the S-fund (EbbTally 2013: C 62%; S 66%; I 52%). And with the 1st day of the double-pattern, the winning percentage for all the funds gets a boost. For comparison, the S&P 500 holds a win percentage of 54.9% during the same 7-year period (2013: 59%). The system doesn't follow the daily signals on the ebbchart. It's the long-term indicators (triple/quadruple patterns) that's important and used by the TSP system for entry/exit points.

What's a triple pattern? It's simply the same pattern (1-8) appearing in three consecutive trading days. Example of a bullish red triple pattern (5-5-5): Pattern 5/red-red-red (WED); Pattern 5/red-red-red (THU); Pattern 5/red-red-red (FRI). Bearish green triple pattern (2-2-2): Pattern 2/green-green-red (MON); Pattern 2/green-green-red (TUE); Pattern 2/green-green-red (WED). A pattern is made up of the red and green signals for the C, S, and I-fund. Bullish patterns have two or more red signals and bearish patterns have two or more green signals.

Double patterns allow the system to go into equities (2nd day only, S-fund) even if the triple patterns are bearish. For most of the patterns, the 2nd day of a DP appears to maximize its strength or weakness. The 3rd and 4th day on the chart are for triple and quadruple patterns (not used, needs more data). Double-patterns chart:

 

[ebbnflow]

I-fund is down, way down. My MSCI EAFE guesstimate is for a loss of -1.08% in the I-fund. Ouch! :worried:

 

[OBXTrader]

Doesn't that move based on fair value at the close? If the market to were to end higher, that number will come down, right? I track SCHF and see move up and down until the close at 4PM.

I-fund is down, way down. My MSCI EAFE guesstimate is for a loss of -1.08% in the I-fund. Ouch! :worried:

 

[ebbnflow]

I-fund is down, way down. My MSCI EAFE guesstimate is for a loss of -1.08% in the I-fund. Ouch! :worried:

Doesn't that move based on fair value at the close? If the market to were to end higher, that number will come down, right? I track SCHF and see move up and down until the close at 4PM.

It's worse than I expected -- final MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -1.24% in the I-fund.

OBXTrader, if you look right now at the EFA chart below, the end of the EFA line is not much higher than where it was from 12:00 noon. Watch 64.4 in the EFA chart -- if it ends up there, then a +FV is possible.

 

[ebbnflow]

I'm trying out some picture puzzles and would like to know if it's too easy or hard. You may enter one or five guesses. Your first one should be your best answer.

What 5-letter word do these pictures have in common?

 

[MrBowl]

I'm trying out some picture puzzles and would like to know if it's too easy or hard. You may enter one or five guesses. Your first one should be your best answer.

What 5-letter word do these pictures have in common?

Rapid

 

[ebbnflow]

Rapid

Dang, you're good MrBowl. I need to make them harder then.

 

[MrBowl]

Dang, you're good MrBowl. I need to make them harder then.

my one lucky guess! cool game!

 

[ebbnflow]

I have a game like that on my iPad. It provides you with extra letters mixed in with the scrambled word.
I won't say how many letters this time to make it a little harder, but let me if you need it.

What word do these pictures have in common?

 

[ebbnflow]

I think the puzzle is too hard without knowing the number of letters. Games like this usually let you know the length of the word. It's a 5-letter word.

 

[CrabClaw]

fresh

 

[ebbnflow]

I have a game like that on my iPad. It provides you with extra letters mixed in with the scrambled word.
I won't say how many letters this time to make it a little harder, but let me know if you need it.

What word do these pictures have in common?

fresh

Great going, CrabClaw. What tipped it for you? The number of letters?
Clues for these would be:

a) Saying about daisies (fresh as a daisy).
b) Takes a gum (freshens mouth).
c) Kind of vegetables (fresh veggies).
d) Breaths in the open air (fresh air).

 

[ebbnflow]

Double-Pattern Alert: Today and tomorrow, the ebbchart is showing a double pattern 4-4. According to the double-patterns chart (bottom), the 1st day (Dec. 09) has a winning percentage of 69%, but the 2nd day (Dec. 10) drops down to only 31%.

Today's pattern (Monday): Pattern 4/green-red-green. Win Percentage (54.9%): C 56%; S 54%; I 55% (see 3rd chart below). The 7-yr. ebbtally chart (2007-2013) says this bearish green pattern does well with the C and I-fund. This year, it's doing better in the S-fund (EbbTally 2013: C 62%; S 66%; I 52%). And with the 1st day of the double-pattern, the winning percentage for all the funds gets a boost. For comparison, the S&P 500 holds a win percentage of 54.9% during the same 7-year period (2013: 59%). The system doesn't follow the daily signals on the ebbchart. It's the long-term indicators (triple/quadruple patterns) that's important and used by the TSP system for entry/exit points.

What's a triple pattern? It's simply the same pattern (1-8) appearing in three consecutive trading days. Example of a bullish red triple pattern (5-5-5): Pattern 5/red-red-red (WED); Pattern 5/red-red-red (THU); Pattern 5/red-red-red (FRI). Bearish green triple pattern (2-2-2): Pattern 2/green-green-red (MON); Pattern 2/green-green-red (TUE); Pattern 2/green-green-red (WED). A pattern is made up of the red and green signals for the C, S, and I-fund. Bullish patterns have two or more red signals and bearish patterns have two or more green signals.

The last double pattern (4-4) above played out as expected (positive the 1st day and negative the 2nd day). Today and Monday, we have another double pattern (1-1). And again, the 1st day turned out positive in the S-fund. 2nd day on Monday should have a negative bias.

Note: Only the S-fund (+0.38%) turned out positive today, and as expected the C (-0.01%) and I-fund (-0.22%) did not do well. The funds fared according to the strength of the 7-yr. ebbtally (C 53%, S 55%, I 51%). The 7-yr. win percentage for the S&P 500 is 54.8%, so anything less than that shows weakness and above it means strength.

Double-Pattern Alert: Today and Monday (Dec. 13 & 16), the ebbchart is showing a double pattern (1-1). The 1st day has a win percentage of 68% (21/31) for the S-fund, then it drops down to 58% (18/31) the 2nd day. Take it for what it is, but I'd be cautious entering equities using pattern 1. Its win percentage (7-yr. ebbtally) for the C (53%) and I-fund (51%) is not that good.

Today's pattern (Friday): Pattern 1/green-green-green. Win Percentage (52.8%): C 53%; S 55%; I 51%. The 7-yr. ebbtally chart (2007-2013) says this bearish green pattern does poorly with the C and I-fund (especially the I-fund). EbbTally (2013): C 63%; S 60%; I 55%.

Double-patterns chart:

 

[ebbnflow]

What 8-letter word do these pictures have in common?

 

[CrabClaw]

business

 

[ebbnflow]

What 8-letter word do these pictures have in common?

business

CrabClaw, you nailed it. You sure know how to think this through.

A) Open for business.
B) Taking care of business
C) Business handshake/deal.
D) Retail business.