Ebb's Account Talk

[ebbnflow]

Re: Simple to understand

Interesting diagnosis, I look forward to seeing the results, thanks for the heads up.

If not for double pattern 3-3 (1st day DP WP: 50%) showing up today, the normal odds for pattern 3 would have been bullish at 57%, and I would have been long instead of short.

 

[ebbnflow]

Oh so close to serving up a bad brewski, today. Let's try one more round, bartender!

Wednesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.2%): C 55.3%, S 53.5% (TP WP: 33%), I 53.9%.
Result: long C-fund was right; short S-fund was wrong; cash I-fund was safe.

Unofficial (May 07, 2014): C +0.56%; S +0.11%; I -0.66%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (51.9%); 8/red-grn-red (52.4%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.7%); 6/red-red-grn (53.9%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (57.1%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.0% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.0%; long > 55.0%.
Accuracy: 14/21 (67%). Long: 9/11 (82%). Short: 5/10 (50%). Cash: green (2 up, 2 down); red (2 up, 3 down).

Thursday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.5%): C 56.9%, S 57.1% (DP WP: 50%), I 55.6%.
Forecast: long C-fund; short S-fund; long I-fund.

Thursday is the 1st day of double pattern 3-3 and it has a win percentage of 50% (11/22). See chart.

Heavy rain triggers mudslide.

Thursday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.5%): C 56.9%, S 57.1% (DP WP: 50%), I 55.6%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; short S-fund was right; long I-fund was right.

Unofficial (May 08, 2014): C -0.14%; S -0.83%; I +0.67%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (51.9%); 8/red-grn-red (52.4%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.7%); 6/red-red-grn (53.9%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (56.8%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.0% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.0%; long > 55.0%.
Accuracy: 15/22 (68%). Long: 9/11 (82%). Short: 6/11 (55%). Cash: green (2 up, 2 down); red (2 up, 3 down).

Friday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.4%): C 56.7%, S 56.8% (DP WP: 68%), I 55.8%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund.

Friday is the 2nd day of double pattern 3-3 and it has a win percentage of 68% (15/22). See chart.

 

[airlift]

Ebb,

I see that your system is showing very good results! It's good to see that you also can show a good performance. I am still watching and learning how your system works.

 

[ebbnflow]

Ebb,

I see that your system is showing very good results! It's good to see that you also can show a good performance. I am still watching and learning how your system works.

Thanks, airlift. Patterns and probabilities. Strategy is well defined and balanced. We're good to go!

 

[userque]

Re: Still Clueless?

ebbnflow,

No eta for the trading fees upgrade of the tally report. I could push it out over the weekend, but...

Originally, I pushed the spreadsheet out as quickly as possible, sacrificing the creation of "good" infrastructure conducive to future upgrades and scalability. So now that we are/have-been up and running, any changes I now make I like to also improve scalability and upgradeability.

I just did that when I changed the starting balances. It took several minutes to do; but now it will only take seconds to do in the future as I also took the time to "correct" the structure of the sheet--an investment of time. It's not much, but making that variable (starting balance) more robust means that future changes are less likely to "break" the spreadsheet (requiring laborious troubleshooting).

An apple a day keeps the doctor away.

All that to say: it's coming, but lean back; don't sit on the edge of your seat.

P.S.
While I'm tinkering under the hood, let me know of any other changes you're considering (boring out the cylinders, new cam, etc.) Real trading accounts earn interest, so maybe cactus was on to something by suggesting that CASH positions earn G-Fund interest rates.?

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: Still Clueless?

That's right. We're simulating a real trading platform now, so let's bring all the goodies! Great job, userque.

 

[userque]

Re: Still Clueless?

That's right. We're simulating a real trading platform now, so let's bring all the goodies! Great job, userque.

Thanks. As usual, the G-Fund interest will be retroactive.

 

[ebbnflow]

Heavy rain triggers mudslide.

Thursday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.5%): C 56.9%, S 57.1% (DP WP: 50%), I 55.6%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; short S-fund was right; long I-fund was right.

Unofficial (May 08, 2014): C -0.14%; S -0.83%; I +0.67%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (51.9%); 8/red-grn-red (52.4%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.7%); 6/red-red-grn (53.9%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (56.8%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.0% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.0%; long > 55.0%.
Accuracy: 15/22 (68%). Long: 9/11 (82%). Short: 6/11 (55%). Cash: green (2 up, 2 down); red (2 up, 3 down).

Friday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.4%): C 56.7%, S 56.8% (DP WP: 68%), I 55.8%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund.

Friday is the 2nd day of double pattern 3-3 and it has a win percentage of 68% (15/22). See chart.

Blood on the streets? No worries, the patterns say it's just ketchup.

Friday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.4%): C 56.7%, S 56.8% (DP WP: 68%), I 55.8%.
Result: long C-fund was right; long S-fund was right; long I-fund was wrong.

Unofficial (May 09, 2014): C +0.15%; S +0.47%; I -0.66%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (51.9%); 8/red-grn-red (52.4%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.7%); 6/red-red-grn (53.9%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.0% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.0%; long > 55.0%.
Accuracy: 16/23 (70%). Long: 10/12 (83%). Short: 6/11 (55%). Cash: green (2 up, 2 down); red (2 up, 3 down).

Monday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.3%): C 55.5%, S 53.7%, I 53.6%.
Forecast: long C-fund; cash S-fund; long I-fund.

Monday has pattern 4 which is a neutral/cash pattern (WP: S 53.7%). Strategy: Cash > 53% and < 55%.

 

[userque]

Re: Still Clueless?

Wow! You're long C and I...Monday will be interesting

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: Still Clueless?

Monday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.3%): C 55.5%, S 53.7%, I 53.6%.
Forecast: long C-fund; cash S-fund; long I-fund.

Oops. Should be cash I-fund since 53.6% is less than the strategy's 55% for it to go long. :embarrest:
Forecast: long C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Wow! You're long C and I...Monday will be interesting

Thanks for bringing it to my attention. I forgot to cut and paste the right info.

 

[userque]

Re: Still Clueless?

Oops. Should be cash I-fund since 53.6% is less than the strategy's 55% for it to go long. :embarrest:
Forecast: long C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Thanks for bringing it to my attention. I forgot to cut and paste the right info.

Ahh, I feel better about being SHORT now.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: Still Clueless?

Here's what the daily ebbchart sees for nex week. Check out the previous triple pattern 4-4-4 (May 05-07), double pattern 3-3 (May 08-09), and the upcoming double pattern 6-6 (May 13-14). Please disregard the 'Daily Signal' in this chart. For stocks and ETFs, refer to the strategy/forecast that I post for the S-fund Challenge.

 

[ebbnflow]

Question: Where did I get the S-fund win percentages for the short, cash, and long patterns?

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (51.9%); 8/red-grn-red (52.4%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.7%); 6/red-red-grn (53.9%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

Answer: I got the S-fund win percentages from the patterns' 7-yr. ebbtally chart below.

Question: What exactly does the Strategy say in plain English?

S&P 500: 55.0% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.0%; long > 55.0%.
Accuracy: 16/23 (70%). Long: 10/12 (83%). Short: 6/11 (55%). Cash: green (2 up, 2 down); red (2 up, 3 down).

Answer: It says to short if the pattern's S-fund win percentage is less than or equal to 53%. To be in cash if it is greater than 53%, and less than or equal to 55% (the S&P 500's 7-yr. win percentage). And lastly, go long if it's over 55%. As it stands now, we have 2 short (2, 8), 3 cash (4, 6, 7), and 3 long (1, 3, 5) patterns.

 

[ebbnflow]

Blood on the streets? No worries, the patterns say it's just ketchup.

Friday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.4%): C 56.7%, S 56.8% (DP WP: 68%), I 55.8%.
Result: long C-fund was right; long S-fund was right; long I-fund was wrong.

Unofficial (May 09, 2014): C +0.15%; S +0.47%; I -0.66%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (51.9%); 8/red-grn-red (52.4%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.7%); 6/red-red-grn (53.9%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.0% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.0%; long > 55.0%.
Accuracy: 16/23 (70%). Long: 10/12 (83%). Short: 6/11 (55%). Cash: green (2 up, 2 down); red (2 up, 3 down).

Monday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.3%): C 55.5%, S 53.7%, I 53.6%.
Forecast: long C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund. Corrected.

Monday has pattern 4 which is a neutral/cash pattern (WP: S 53.7%). Strategy: Cash > 53% and < 55%.

Great day to be riding with the bulls (my TSP, anyway).

Monday: Pattern4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.3%): C 55.5%, S 53.7%, I 53.6%.
Result: long C-fund was right; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe.

Unofficial (May 12, 2014): C +0.97%; S +1.78%; I +0.29%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (51.9%); 8/red-grn-red (52.4%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.9%); 6/red-red-grn (53.9%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.1% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.1%; long > 55.1%.
Accuracy: 16/23 (70%). Long: 10/12 (83%). Short: 6/11 (55%). Cash: green (3 up, 2 down); red (2 up, 3 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.1%): C 52.2%, S 53.9 (DP WP: 61%), I 53.3%.
Forecast: short C-fund; long S-fund; cash I-fund.

Tuesday is the 1st day of double pattern 6-6. It has a win percentage of 61% (17/28). Strategy: Long > 55.1%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Great day to be riding with the bulls (my TSP, anyway).

Monday: Pattern4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.3%): C 55.5%, S 53.7%, I 53.6%.
Result: long C-fund was right; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe.

Unofficial (May 12, 2014): C +0.97%; S +1.78%; I +0.29%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (51.9%); 8/red-grn-red (52.4%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.9%); 6/red-red-grn (53.9%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.1% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.1%; long > 55.1%.
Accuracy: 16/23 (70%). Long: 10/12 (83%). Short: 6/11 (55%). Cash: green (3 up, 2 down); red (2 up, 3 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.1%): C 52.2%, S 53.9 (DP WP: 61%), I 53.3%.
Forecast: short C-fund; long S-fund; cash I-fund.

Tuesday is the 1st day of double pattern 6-6. It has a win percentage of 61% (17/28). Strategy: Long > 55.1%.

S-fund fizzled today. It had too much pop yesterday.

Tuesday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.1%): C 52.2%, S 53.9 (DP WP: 61%), I 53.3%.
Result: short C-fund was wrong; long S-fund was wrong; cash I-fund was safe.

Unofficial (May 13, 2014): C +0.04%; S -0.60%; I +0.39%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (51.9%); 8/red-grn-red (52.4%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.9%); 6/red-red-grn (53.7%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.1% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.1%; long > 55.1%.
Accuracy: 16/24 (67%). Long: 10/13 (77%). Short: 6/11 (55%). Cash: green (3 up, 2 down); red (2 up, 3 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.2%): C 52.4%, S 53.7 (DP WP: 57%), I 53.5%.
Forecast: short C-fund; long S-fund; cash I-fund.

Wednesday is the 2nd day of double pattern 6-6. It has a win percentage of 57% (16/28). Strategy: Long > 55.1%.

 

[ebbnflow]

S-fund fizzled today. It had too much pop yesterday.

Tuesday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.1%): C 52.2%, S 53.9 (DP WP: 61%), I 53.3%.
Result: short C-fund was wrong; long S-fund was wrong; cash I-fund was safe.

Unofficial (May 13, 2014): C +0.04%; S -0.60%; I +0.39%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (51.9%); 8/red-grn-red (52.4%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.9%); 6/red-red-grn (53.7%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.1% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.1%; long > 55.1%.
Accuracy: 16/24 (67%). Long: 10/13 (77%). Short: 6/11 (55%). Cash: green (3 up, 2 down); red (2 up, 3 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.2%): C 52.4%, S 53.7 (DP WP: 57%), I 53.5%.
Forecast: short C-fund; long S-fund; cash I-fund.

Wednesday is the 2nd day of double pattern 6-6. It has a win percentage of 57% (16/28). Strategy: Long > 55.1%.

The S-fund has now surrendered most of its Monday gains.

Wednesday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.2%): C 52.4%, S 53.7 (DP WP: 57%), I 53.5%.
Result: short C-fund was right; long S-fund was wrong; cash I-fund was safe.

Unofficial (May 14, 2014): C -0.47%; S -0.99%; I +0.17%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (51.9%); 8/red-grn-red (52.4%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.9%); 6/red-red-grn (53.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.1% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.1%; long > 55.1%.
Accuracy: 16/25 (64%). Long: 10/14 (71%). Short: 6/11 (55%). Cash: green (3 up, 2 down); red (2 up, 3 down).

Thursday: Pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 59.9%): C 60.8%, S 60.3%, I 58.6%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund.

Thursday has bullish pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (S-fund): 60.3% (W 129, L 85). Strategy: Long > 55.1%.

 

[ebbnflow]

The S-fund has now surrendered most of its Monday gains.

Wednesday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.2%): C 52.4%, S 53.7 (DP WP: 57%), I 53.5%.
Result: short C-fund was right; long S-fund was wrong; cash I-fund was safe.

Unofficial (May 14, 2014): C -0.47%; S -0.99%; I +0.17%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (51.9%); 8/red-grn-red (52.4%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.9%); 6/red-red-grn (53.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.1% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.1%; long > 55.1%.
Accuracy: 16/25 (64%). Long: 10/14 (71%). Short: 6/11 (55%). Cash: green (3 up, 2 down); red (2 up, 3 down).

Thursday: Pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 59.9%): C 60.8%, S 60.3%, I 58.6%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund.

Thursday has bullish pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (S-fund): 60.3% (W 129, L 85). Strategy: Long > 55.1%.

It could have been worse. :suspicious:

Thursday has bullish pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (S-fund): 60.3% (W 129, L 85). Strategy: Long > 55.1%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; long S-fund was wrong; cash I-fund was wrong.

Unofficial (May 15, 2014): C -0.93%; S -0.73%; I -0.53%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (51.9%); 8/red-grn-red (52.4%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.9%); 6/red-red-grn (53.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (60.0%).

S&P 500: 55.0% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.0%; long > 55.0%.
Accuracy: 16/26 (62%). Long: 10/15 (67%). Short: 6/11 (55%). Cash: green (3 up, 2 down); red (2 up, 3 down).

Friday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.8%): C 53.1%, S 56.0% (DP WP: 69%), I 49.4%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

Friday is the 1st day of double pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. DP Win Percentage (S-fund): 69% (24/35). Strategy: Long > 55.0%.

 

[ebbnflow]

It could have been worse. :suspicious:

Thursday has bullish pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (S-fund): 60.3% (W 129, L 85). Strategy: Long > 55.1%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; long S-fund was wrong; cash I-fund was wrong.

Unofficial (May 15, 2014): C -0.93%; S -0.73%; I -0.53%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (51.9%); 8/red-grn-red (52.4%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.9%); 6/red-red-grn (53.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (60.0%).

S&P 500: 55.0% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.0%; long > 55.0%.
Accuracy: 16/26 (62%). Long: 10/15 (67%). Short: 6/11 (55%). Cash: green (3 up, 2 down); red (2 up, 3 down).

Friday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.8%): C 53.1%, S 56.0% (DP WP: 69%), I 49.4%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

Friday is the 1st day of double pattern 1-1. DP Win Percentage (S-fund): 69% (24/35). Strategy: Long > 55.0%.

The I-fund really hates pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Its win percentage is only at 49.2% with pattern 1 on tap.

Friday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.8%): C 53.1%, S 56.0% (DP WP: 69%), I 49.4%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; long S-fund was right; short I-fund was right.

Unofficial (May 16, 2014): C +0.37%; S +0.44%; I -0.23%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (51.9%); 8/red-grn-red (52.4%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.9%); 6/red-red-grn (53.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.2%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (60.0%).

S&P 500: 55.0% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.0%; long > 55.0%.
Accuracy: 17/27 (63%). Long: 11/16 (69%). Short: 6/11 (55%). Cash: green (3 up, 2 down); red (2 up, 3 down).

Monday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.9%): C 53.3%, S 56.2% (DP WP: 63%), I 49.2%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

Monday is the 2nd day of double pattern 1-1. DP Win Percentage (S-fund): 63% (22/35). Strategy: Long > 55.0%.

 

[ebbnflow]

The I-fund really hates pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Its win percentage is only at 49.2% with pattern 1 on tap.

Friday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.8%): C 53.1%, S 56.0% (DP WP: 69%), I 49.4%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; long S-fund was right; short I-fund was right.

Unofficial (May 16, 2014): C +0.37%; S +0.44%; I -0.23%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (51.9%); 8/red-grn-red (52.4%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.9%); 6/red-red-grn (53.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.2%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (60.0%).

S&P 500: 55.0% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.0%; long > 55.0%.
Accuracy: 17/27 (63%). Long: 11/16 (69%). Short: 6/11 (55%). Cash: green (3 up, 2 down); red (2 up, 3 down).

Monday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.9%): C 53.3%, S 56.2% (DP WP: 63%), I 49.2%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

Monday is the 2nd day of double pattern 1-1. DP Win Percentage (S-fund): 63% (22/35). Strategy: Long > 55.0%.

Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn strikes again. Its signature called for being long S-fund, but short I-fund in the last couple of days, and was right both times. This pattern also has the biggest gap in win percentage between the S-fund (56.3%) and I-fund (49.0%).

Monday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.9%): C 53.3%, S 56.2% (DP WP: 63%), I 49.2%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; long S-fund was right; short I-fund was right.

Unofficial (May 19, 2014): C +0.38%; S +0.83%; I -0.24%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (51.9%); 8/red-grn-red (52.4%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.9%); 6/red-red-grn (53.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (60.0%).

S&P 500: 55.1% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.1%; long > 55.1%.
Accuracy: 18/28 (64%). Long: 12/17 (71%). Short: 6/11 (55%). Cash: green (3 up, 2 down); red (2 up, 3 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 8/red-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.9%): C 55.6%, S 52.4% (DP WP: 56%), I 56.9%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund.

Tuesday is the 1st day of double pattern 8-8. DP Win Percentage (S-fund): 56% (14/25). Strategy: Long > 55.1%. Normal odds (see chart below) for pattern 8 in the S-fund is only 52.4% (calls for being short), but with double patterns (1st day), it gets boosted to 56% (calls for being long).

 

[ebbnflow]

Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn strikes again. Its signature called for being long S-fund, but short I-fund in the last couple of days, and was right both times. This pattern also has the biggest gap in win percentage between the S-fund (56.3%) and I-fund (49.0%).

Monday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.9%): C 53.3%, S 56.2% (DP WP: 63%), I 49.2%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; long S-fund was right; short I-fund was right.

Unofficial (May 19, 2014): C +0.38%; S +0.83%; I -0.24%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (51.9%); 8/red-grn-red (52.4%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.9%); 6/red-red-grn (53.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (60.0%).

S&P 500: 55.1% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.1%; long > 55.1%.
Accuracy: 18/28 (64%). Long: 12/17 (71%). Short: 6/11 (55%). Cash: green (3 up, 2 down); red (2 up, 3 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 8/red-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.9%): C 55.6%, S 52.4% (DP WP: 56%), I 56.9%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund.

Tuesday is the 1st day of double pattern 8-8. DP Win Percentage (S-fund): 56% (14/25). Strategy: Long > 55.1%. Normal odds (see chart below) for pattern 8 in the S-fund is only 52.4% (calls for being short), but with double patterns (1st day), it gets boosted to 56% (calls for being long).

The 1st day of double pattern 8-8 had a win percentage 56% (14/25), so even though it was a long pattern, it was on the cusp of being cash with just one loss. And, it did lose today, so it's now a cash pattern at 53.8% (14/26). On the other hand, tomorrow's 2nd day of pattern 8-8 is our most bullish pattern at 71% (17/24). :toung:

Tuesday: Pattern 8/red-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.9%): C 55.6%, S 52.4% (DP WP: 56%), I 56.9%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; long S-fund was wrong; short I-fund was wrong.

Unofficial (May 20, 2014): C -0.65%; S -1.16%; I -0.23%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (51.9%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.9%); 6/red-red-grn (53.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (60.0%).

S&P 500: 55.0% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.0%; long > 55.0%.
Accuracy: 18/29 (62%). Long: 12/18 (67%). Short: 6/11 (55%). Cash: green (3 up, 2 down); red (2 up, 3 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 8/red-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.7%): C 55.4%, S 52.1% (DP WP: 71%), I 56.7%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund.

Wednesday is the 2nd day of double pattern 8-8. DP Win Percentage (S-fund): 71% (17/24). Strategy: Long > 55.0%.