Ebb's Account Talk

[JTH]

Re: Simple to understand

I wouldn't get too worked up about what others think of your system, if it's performing well, people will follow you no matter how confusing it appears to be, or how many times you change it. Bottom line, performance is the only thing folks care about. If your system fails to perform to peoples expectations, then the laws of supply and demand will eventually take hold. I don't hate you or your system, but I do see issues with it's performance and your perceived inability to acknowledge it has not met the minimum expectations of outperforming the S&P 500. Compounding this, you are no longer tracked on the Auto Tracker and because you don't share your "secret sauce" there is no way to validate your true performance.

Some folks might find me a bit harsh, or think me rude but the fact is I'm dead serious about what our purpose is here. This is about making money, enriching our lives, our futures are at stake and one false step can put any one of us in financial ruin. I know what you've done for this forum and I respect you for that. You are an elder here, many people look up to you but with that respect and seniority comes a higher standard to be expected. I would certianly expect anyone here to do the same for me, we are each others keeper.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: Simple to understand

I wouldn't get too worked up about what others think of your system, if it's performing well, people will follow you no matter how confusing it appears to be, or how many times you change it. Bottom line, performance is the only thing folks care about. If your system fails to perform to peoples expectations, then the laws of supply and demand will eventually take hold. I don't hate you or your system, but I do see issues with it's performance and your perceived inability to acknowledge it has not met the minimum expectations of outperforming the S&P 500. Compounding this, you are no longer tracked on the Auto Tracker and because you don't share your "secret sauce" there is no way to validate your true performance.

Some folks might find me a bit harsh, or think me rude but the fact is I'm dead serious about what our purpose is here. This is about making money, enriching our lives, our futures are at stake and one false step can put any one of us in financial ruin. I know what you've done for this forum and I respect you for that. You are an elder here, many people look up to you but with that respect and seniority comes a higher standard to be expected. I would certianly expect anyone here to do the same for me, we are each others keeper.

I agree, performance is key, and I had some issues with my old system also, but not the new one (it has evolved by leaps and bounds). I would not have started the S-fund Challenge if I wasn't confident with the ebbchart patterns (money in mouth right now, and gagging ). The new system (not the old one) based on the double/triple/quadruple patterns will beat the S&P 500 or any other system you can find. I'm serious.

I am currently tracked on another website, but I've posted my IFTs on my account thread also, so no big deal. I thought I was going to be entered automatically in the AutoTracker after being known to be in the F-fund by the end of 2013, but found out too late I wasn't. If anybody wants to enter the ebbcharts in the AutoTracker, then I have no objections to that. But you may find other folks against it. I might be bumping someone off the top ten list (year-to-date: +5.55%).

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Simple to understand

I know you are responding to some questions, but I am concerned that this is starting to sound like advertising. I have a lot of respect for you and consider you a friend, but in order to keep the peace on the site, we may need to back off a little here. I sent you a message ebb, to talk about it.

Thanks.

 

[law87]

Re: Simple to understand

You never told me what you're confused about, so what can I say? Maybe read some of the previous posts above. It explains how I use simple addition (no multiplication) to tally the ebbcharts. :toung:

Start with this link: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/members-account-talk/16251-ebbs-account-talk-40.html#post449288

I'm looking at the chart or charts that you have and I just cant tied any of those together. For somenoe new, I just want the answer, not charts full of stuff only a handful can read, that is confusing, its just me btw.

I'm sure you get great returns from it, but for me I cant be paying for a service that I dont understand how it works or what any of the charts mean, because eventually I'm going to have to adopt a system and go out on my own.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: Simple to understand

I know you are responding to some questions, but I am concerned that this is starting to sound like advertising. I have a lot of respect for you and consider you a friend, but in order to keep the peace on the site, we may need to back off a little here. I sent you a message ebb, to talk about it.

Thanks.

Thanks, Tom. I will back off.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: Simple to understand

I'm looking at the chart or charts that you have and I just cant tied any of those together. For somenoe new, I just want the answer, not charts full of stuff only a handful can read, that is confusing, its just me btw.

I'm sure you get great returns from it, but for me I cant be paying for a service that I dont understand how it works or what any of the charts mean, because eventually I'm going to have to adopt a system and go out on my own.

Thanks for being candid, law87. You really don't have to know anything about the charts. If I say I'm going to IFT to the S-fund or F-fund, then that's all you need to know. The ebbcharts are there only to see how the patterns are doing. By the way, bearish triple pattern 1-1-1 has my TSP in the freezer (F-fund) for now.

If you want day-to-day forecasts, then you can go to the S-fund Challenge thread, to see userque using his neural network system, myself using the ebbchart patterns, Cactus, RMI, and others..

 

[airlift]

Re: Simple to understand

Ebbnflow,

As you explained to others above, and only as a learning tool, you stated the following in one of your explanations:

"There's a double pattern on the ebbcharts for next week (Apr. 08/Tuesday and Apr. 09/Wednesday). Usually, I use only the bullish red double patterns to enter the market for a day or two, but I'll make an exception for pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Its normal 7-yr. winning percentage in the S-fund is good at 55%. But as a double pattern, its 1st day jumps to a great win percentage of 68%, and its 2nd day is not that bad either at 62%. That being said, I will make an IFT before noon next Monday, so I can be in the S-fund for Tuesday and Wednesday."

I have a couple of questions to ask you, and I will thank you in advance for a clarification to be able to understand how this works.

1. What does grn mean?

2. What day of the week do you post the signal patterns that you use for the following week?

3. Why do you use the S fund and the F fund only?

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: Simple to understand

Ebbnflow,

As you explained to others above, and only as a learning tool, you stated the following in one of your explanations:

"There's a double pattern on the ebbcharts for next week (Apr. 08/Tuesday and Apr. 09/Wednesday). Usually, I use only the bullish red double patterns to enter the market for a day or two, but I'll make an exception for pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Its normal 7-yr. winning percentage in the S-fund is good at 55%. But as a double pattern, its 1st day jumps to a great win percentage of 68%, and its 2nd day is not that bad either at 62%. That being said, I will make an IFT before noon next Monday, so I can be in the S-fund for Tuesday and Wednesday."

I have a couple of questions to ask you, and I will thank you in advance for a clarification to be able to understand how this works.

1. What does grn mean?

2. What day of the week do you post the signal patterns that you use for the following week?

3. Why do you use the S fund and the F fund only?

Great to hear from you and thanks for asking, airlift.

1. The grn in pattern 1/grn-grn-grn is short for green. You can see the pattern's win percentages in the C, S, and I-fund in this chart.

2. The daily patterns are for stocks or ETFs and not followed by the TSP system. Only the double/triple/quadruple patterns are used by the TSP system as entry or exit points. The current one we have is the entry (21-Jan-14) for bearish green triple pattern 1-1-1 (F-fund 100%). Below that is the entry (8-Apr-14 to 9-Apr-14) for our recent green double pattern 1-1 (S-fund). The last entry (10-Apr-14) shows a light-colored green triple pattern 1-1-1 ( F-fund) which means that it's a continuation of the previous pattern (not a new one). The TSP system won't move from the F-fund unless a bullish red triple pattern turns up (still waiting). I usually post an IFT move a day or two in advance.

3) I started using the S-fund in April of 2013 after leaving 8% off the table by being in the I-fund instead of the S-fund early in the year. The F-fund has more upside to it than the G-fund. Leads all the funds this year at +2.87%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: Simple to understand

Today we have pattern 7/red-grn-grn (I 48.5%) on the ebbcharts, the worst pattern for the I-fund.

Monday's final MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -0.20% in the I-fund.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: Simple to understand

Found my thread! April was a very good month for the system (YTD: +5.66%) -- gained +3.0%, while the S-fund lost -2.5%. Moving forward steadily...

 

[userque]

Ebb,

Your system is holding up well....for now.

How well does your system perform 'with' the TSP--with only being able to essentially trade about twice per month?

And if it performs well, why not join the Autotracker mid-year?

 

[ebbnflow]

Ebb,

Your system is holding up well....for now.

How well does your system perform 'with' the TSP--with only being able to essentially trade about twice per month?

And if it performs well, why not join the Autotracker mid-year?

Userque, thanks for asking. Without the double patterns, I would have made no IFT moves this year. All 6 double-pattern entries into equities (started in 2013) have been successful. I had 2 double-pattern entries this year that resulted in +2.60% gains, so I did make 4 IFTs this year. Year-to-date the system is up +5.96%. In the S-fund for a total of 3 days only, while spending the rest of the time in the F-fund all year long. The system using the double, triple, and quadruple patterns would have beat the S&P 500 in 7 of the last 8 years (this year included).

I wouldn't like to start at 0% mid-year. At any rate, my IFTs and year-to-date gains are being tracked on another site, so it's not a big deal.

 

[ebbnflow]

I spent a total of three days in the market this year (S-fund), so I have to shake my head in disbelief with my +6.0% gain. Over +2.6% of that came from 2 double-pattern entries. Well, we have another double pattern that can be taken advantage of later this week. Stay tuned.

 

[ebbnflow]

Market gets soaked. Good thing I was under my umbrella...ella.

Tuesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.3%): C 55.5%, S 53.7% (DP WP: 28%), I 53.7%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; short S-fund was right; cash I-fund was safe.

Unofficial (May 06, 2014): C -0.90%; S -1.18%; I +0.29%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (51.9%); 8/red-grn-red (52.4%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.5%); 6/red-red-grn (53.9%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (57.1%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.0% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.0%; long > 55.0%.
Accuracy: 14/20 (70%). Long: 9/11 (82%). Short: 5/9 (56%). Cash: green (2 up, 2 down); red (2 up, 3 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.2%): C 55.3%, S 53.5% (TP WP: 33%), I 53.9%.
Forecast: long C-fund; short S-fund; cash I-fund.

Wednesday is the 3rd day of triple pattern 4-4-4 and it has a win percentage of only 33% (see chart).

Oh so close to serving up a bad brewski, today. Let's try one more round, bartender!

Wednesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.2%): C 55.3%, S 53.5% (TP WP: 33%), I 53.9%.
Result: long C-fund was right; short S-fund was wrong; cash I-fund was safe.

Unofficial (May 07, 2014): C +0.56%; S +0.11%; I -0.66%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (51.9%); 8/red-grn-red (52.4%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.7%); 6/red-red-grn (53.9%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (57.1%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.0% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.0%; long > 55.0%.
Accuracy: 14/21 (67%). Long: 9/11 (82%). Short: 5/10 (50%). Cash: green (2 up, 2 down); red (2 up, 3 down).

Thursday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.5%): C 56.9%, S 57.1% (DP WP: 50%), I 55.6%.
Forecast: long C-fund; short S-fund; long I-fund.

Thursday is the 1st day of double pattern 3-3 and it has a win percentage of 50% (11/22). See chart.

 

[userque]

S&P 500: 55.0% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.0%; long > 55.0%.
Accuracy: 14/21 (67%). Long: 9/11 (82%). Short: 5/10 (50%). Cash: green (2 up, 2 down); red (2 up, 3 down).

Thursday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.5%): C 56.9%, S 57.1% (DP WP: 50%), I 55.6%.
Forecast: long C-fund; short S-fund; long I-fund.

Thursday is the 1st day of double pattern 3-3 and it has a win percentage of 50% (11/22). See chart.

Ebb, seems like your system would have you LONG or CASH?:blink: "S 57.1% (DP WP: 50%)"

Also, I notice that sometimes you follow the double patterns; other times you choose the single patterns. Is there a method? Or is it a gut feeling? Or something else?

 

[ebbnflow]

Ebb, seems like your system would have you LONG or CASH?:blink: "S 57.1% (DP WP: 50%)"

Also, I notice that sometimes you follow the double patterns; other times you choose the single patterns. Is there a method? Or is it a gut feeling? Or something else?

Userque, the double patterns always take precedence. The win percentage of 57.1% is from pattern 3's normal odds in the S-fund.. The 1st day of double pattern (DP) 3-3's win percentage (WP) of 50% is less than the strategy's 53% to short, so it's short (not cash).

Where did you see the instance where I used a single pattern's win percentage over a double pattern (I can't find it)?

 

[userque]

Userque, the double patterns always take precedence. The win percentage of 57.1% is from pattern 3's normal odds in the S-fund.. The 1st day of double pattern (DP) 3-3's win percentage (WP) of 50% is less than the strategy's 53% to short, so it's short (not cash).

Where did you see the instance where I used a single pattern's win percentage over a double pattern (I can't find it)?

Ha...I understand now...... and I can't find an instance either. I had a

 

[ebbnflow]

I will be making an IFT before noon today (Thursday), so I can be in the S-fund by tomorrow (Friday). The ebbcharts have a double pattern 3-3 from May 08-09. The 1st day of the DP has a WP of 50% (11/22), so the system remains in the F-fund. But the 2nd day on Friday has a high WP of 68% (15/22), so this becomes our entry point. Next Monday, we have pattern 4, which is a neutral/cash pattern. Then on Tuesday and Wednesday, double pattern 6-6 shows up, and both days have bullish win percentages -- 61% (17/28) and 57% (16/28), respectively. The TSP system will be in the S-fund from May 09-14.

 

[JTH]

Re: Simple to understand

Interesting diagnosis, I look forward to seeing the results, thanks for the heads up.

 

[Scout333]

Thanks Ebb!