Ebb's Account Talk

[ebbnflow]

Re: Still Clueless?

S-fund goes kerplunk! Today, the ebbcharts had pattern 2/grn-grn-red which is the worst pattern for the S-fund (-1.16%). It has a winning percentage of only 52% (see chart above). Remember, since 2007-2014 (ebbchart years), the S&P 500 has had a win percentage of 54.9%, so anything below that number means selling pressure.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: Still Clueless?

S-fund goes kerplunk! Today, the ebbcharts had pattern 2/grn-grn-red which is the worst pattern for the S-fund (-1.16%). It has a winning percentage of only 52% (see chart above). Remember, since 2007-2014 (ebbchart years), the S&P 500 has had a win percentage of 54.9%, so anything below that number means selling pressure.

Oops. The chart above is from Feb. 05, 2014. Here's the latest one from Mar. 21, 2014:

 

[MaStA]

Re: Still Clueless?

Is there a post that explains your system? Thanks!

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: Still Clueless?

Is there a post that explains your system? Thanks!

I think page 2 of this thread explains the green and red signals I get for the C, S, and I-fund. At any rate, the win percentages below show that these patterns are not mere products of chance (random walk). A lot of folks seem to be confused with this notion.

The chart below is the up-to-date 7 yr. ebbtally (compiled since 2007). Notice how patterns with two or more red signals (bearish sentiment) -- 5/RRR (59.7%), 3/GRR (56.3%), 8/RGR (54.8%), 6/RRG (53.4%) -- on average, have a higher win-loss percentage than patterns with two or more green signals (bullish sentiment) -- 7/RGG (52.0%), 1/GGG (52.6%), 2/GGR (53.6%), 4/GRG (54.2%). That's the contrarian trading strategy at work -- markets tend to go up when sentiment is bearish and down when sentiment is bullish.

Note: Only bullish red pattern 6/RRG (CSI 53.4%) seems to be out of place right now with its win percentage falling below the 7-yr. S&P 500's win percentage of 54.8% (2007-2014). But, it was the best performing pattern during the bear market crash of 2008, so maybe it's just biding its time before waking up. Anyway, if a pattern's win percentage for a fund is below our S&P 500's neutral number of 54.8%, then weakness is expected. If it's above, then an upward bias is expected.

 

[MaStA]

Re: Still Clueless?

I think page 2 of this thread explains the green and red signals I get for the C, S, and I-fund. At any rate, the win percentages below show that these patterns are not mere products of chance (random walk). A lot of folks seem to be confused with this notion.

The chart below is the up-to-date 7 yr. ebbtally (compiled since 2007). Notice how patterns with two or more red signals (bearish sentiment) -- 5/RRR (59.7%), 3/GRR (56.3%), 8/RGR (54.8%), 6/RRG (53.4%) -- on average, have a higher win-loss percentage than patterns with two or more green signals (bullish sentiment) -- 7/RGG (52.0%), 1/GGG (52.6%), 2/GGR (53.6%), 4/GRG (54.2%). That's the contrarian trading strategy at work -- markets tend to go up when sentiment is bearish and down when sentiment is bullish.

Note: Only bullish red pattern 6/RRG (CSI 53.4%) seems to be out of place right now with its win percentage falling below the 7-yr. S&P 500's win percentage of 54.8% (2007-2014). But, it was the best performing pattern during the bear market crash of 2008, so maybe it's just biding its time before waking up. Anyway, if a pattern's win percentage for a fund is below our S&P 500's neutral number of 54.8%, then weakness is expected. If it's above, then an upward bias is expected.

Thank you for your explanation and I will look back at page two and read some more when I get a few minutes. Take care!

 

[GUCHI]

Re: Still Clueless?

ebb
how is it that the I fund came into positive mostly after the noon hour , but we still got sucker punched and lost 8 cents? it looks like somebody is making money on both sides, when things are up and when down? just frustrated with the stupid FV that i don't understand. altho i have read about, but still does not sink in. and now its up big in the morn and they will sucker punch us with the FV if it holds.

thanks
john

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: Still Clueless?

ebb
how is it that the I fund came into positive mostly after the noon hour , but we still got sucker punched and lost 8 cents? it looks like somebody is making money on both sides, when things are up and when down? just frustrated with the stupid FV that i don't understand. altho i have read about, but still does not sink in. and now its up big in the morn and they will sucker punch us with the FV if it holds.

thanks
john

Guchi, whatever happens to the market after 12:00 noon won't translate into a -/+ FV unless it's at least a move of half a percent.

 

[GUCHI]

Re: Still Clueless?

Ebb
you mean like what happened today? hmmm wonder how they will take?

Guchi, whatever happens to the market after 12:00 noon won't translate into a -/+ FV unless it's at least a move of half a percent.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: Still Clueless?

Ebb
you mean like what happened today? hmmm wonder how they will take?

Yeah, final MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.85% in the I-fund. The EFA shows a gain of +1.09%, so that's only a move of +0.24%, which falls short of the half a percent needed to get a +FV.

 

[ebbnflow]

Simple to understand

Today is as good a day as any to dispel the notion that you need to be a rocket scientist to understand the ebbcharts. One need only compare yesterday's charts from today to discover that I'm merely tallying results for the patterns in the C, S, and I-fund. Note: Only one pattern gets updated each day.

Thursday/Mar. 27, 2014 ebbtally chart:

Friday/Mar. 28, 2014 ebbtally chart:

Last Friday we had a pattern 6/red-red-grn, and here is the result for the funds: C +0.47%; S +0.33%; I +0.59%.

If we compare the two charts under pattern 6/red-red-grn, the tally in the C-fund went from 6/9 (+1.71%) on Thursday to 7/10 (+2.18%) on Friday. Why? It's because on Friday, the C-fund was up and gained +0.47%. The same tallying was done for the S and I-fund. No changes were made to the other patterns. It's that simple.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: Simple to understand

Same topic as the post above, but this time we'll see what happens to the 7-yr. ebbtally chart when it gets updated. Friday, we had a pattern 7/red-grn-grn, so its C, S, and I-fund tally gets updated with the losses. The loss column went from C 94, S 96, I 105 on Thursday to C 95, S 97, I 106 on Friday (simple math). No changes were made to the other patterns. Don't mind the white bottom-half of the charts. I just use it to see how many losses or wins there are before a percentage is reached.

Thursday's 7-yr. ebbtally chart:

Friday's 7-yr. ebbtally chart:

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: Simple to understand

Daily ebbchart:

There's a double pattern on the ebbcharts for next week (Apr. 08/Tuesday and Apr. 09/Wednesday). Usually, I use only the bullish red double patterns to enter the market for a day or two, but I'll make an exception for pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Its normal 7-yr. winning percentage in the S-fund is good at 55%. But as a double pattern, its 1st day jumps to a great win percentage of 68%, and its 2nd day is not that bad either at 62%. That being said, I will make an IFT before noon next Monday, so I can be in the S-fund for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Double-patterns chart:

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: Simple to understand

Daily ebbchart:

There's a double pattern on the ebbcharts for next week (Apr. 08/Tuesday and Apr. 09/Wednesday). Usually, I use only the bullish red double patterns to enter the market for a day or two, but I'll make an exception for pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Its normal 7-yr. winning percentage in the S-fund is good at 55%. But as a double pattern, its 1st day jumps to a great win percentage of 68%, and its 2nd day is not that bad either at 62%. That being said, I will make an IFT before noon next Monday, so I can be in the S-fund for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Double-patterns chart:

Unofficial: C +0.38%; S +0.76%; I +0.00%.

The 1st day of double pattern 1-1 was a success (gain +0.76%). With a win percentage of 68% in the S-fund, the failure rate was a scant 32% (no-brainer move). Tomorrow, the 2nd day shows a favorable win percentage of 62%, so I'm still in. But I will be making another IFT before noon Wednesday, so I can be back in the F-fund by Thursday. I'll upload the updated chart below later.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: Simple to understand

Okay, the double-patterns chart has been updated for 04/08/14. Chart by chart, I've been trying to show folks that the ebbcharts are simple to understand. This chart is like the other charts...more tallying. The 1st day of double pattern 1-1 went from 23/34 68% on Monday to 24/35 69% on Tuesday. Why? Because today the S-fund was up. Tomorrow, its 2nd day will be updated.

The double-patterns chart allows the system to go into equities for a day or two even if the triple pattern is bearish. By the way, our last five entries into equities using double patterns have all been successful. Let's see what patterns can be used for entry:

Red double patterns:
3-3: 2nd day has a great win percentage of 68%.
5-5: 1st and 2nd day averages are good at 57% and 66%.
6-6: 1st and 2nd day averages are good at 61% and 57%.
8-8: 1st and 2nd day averages are good at 56% and 71%.

Green double patterns:
1-1: 1st and 2nd day averages are awesome at 69% and 62%. It's the only green double pattern I'd consider using.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: Simple to understand

Okay, the double-patterns chart has been updated for 04/08/14. Chart by chart, I've been trying to show folks that the ebbcharts are simple to understand. This chart is like the other charts...more tallying. The 1st day of double pattern 1-1 went from 23/34 68% on Monday to 24/35 69% on Tuesday. Why? Because today the S-fund was up. Tomorrow, its 2nd day will be updated.

The double-patterns chart allows the system to go into equities for a day or two even if the triple pattern is bearish. By the way, our last five entries into equities using double patterns have all been successful. Let's see what patterns can be used for entry:

Red double patterns:
3-3: 2nd day has a great win percentage of 68%.
5-5: 1st and 2nd day averages are good at 57% and 66%.
6-6: 1st and 2nd day averages are good at 61% and 57%.
8-8: 1st and 2nd day averages are good at 56% and 71%.

Green double patterns:
1-1: 1st and 2nd day averages are awesome at 69% and 62%. It's the only green double pattern I'd consider using.

The 2nd day of pattern 1-1 has been updated. The quick scalp in the S-fund (Tuesday and Wednesday) netted the system a gain of 2.12% (year-to-date: +5.16%). It also marks our sixth consecutive successful entry into equities using the double patterns. Making progress steadily...exit stage lefT.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: Simple to understand

The 2nd day of pattern 1-1 has been updated. The quick scalp in the S-fund (Tuesday and Wednesday) netted the system a gain of 2.12% (year-to-date: +5.16%). It also marks our sixth consecutive successful entry into equities using the double patterns. Making progress steadily...exit stage left.

Dodged a 4% loss (Thursday and Friday) in the S-fund with the timely IFT move back to the F-fund. The system is now up +5.55% For the year.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: Simple to understand

What's great about the ebbchart patterns? Each pattern has taken well over 200 "snapshots" of the market. Compare that with the seasonality chart which tells you the forecast based on a given *date. That means a "snapshot" comes around only once a year for a grand total of some 60 years. You'd have to wait another 140 years to equal the data gathered by the ebbchart patterns. It's also the reason why the pattern's range of winning percentages are so much tighter (49% to 61%) and sexy.

*The ebbcharts' daily forecast does not depend on the date, but on the pattern generated for that day.

One more thing, the ebbchart patterns are dynamic. It continuously changes and adapts to the market. Think about it, if you're following the seasonality charts during a bear market, you'd be sunk. Same goes with averaging days and whatnot, it can't move and adapt fast enough to changing environments. Don't get me wrong now, I love the seasonality charts as much as the next guy/gal.

I know lots of folks hate on the ebbchart patterns because they can't find it anywhere else. I "write" the patterns and it originates from me, so I'm not just reading tea leaves like everyone does. But you know what, there's really a big advantage in seeing what others don't.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: Simple to understand

I'm done with folks comparing what my old system did before 2012 (discovery of triple pattern timeline). I consider myself lucky to escape with a -17% loss in 2008, when the market was down -50%. I am also glad that my system continues to evolve (double patterns). The double/triple/quadruple pattern entries in this chart are live only from 2012 and up, but it still doesn't change the fact that these patterns existed before 2012 (all documented). Unlike backtesting where you have different parameters to adjust in order to validate your own conclusion and system (self-fulfilling prophecy), the ebbchart patterns can't be adjusted. It's just either there, or not.

I don't know if the system using the S-fund (started live in April 2013) can continue its steady gains in the future, but we shall see.

 

[law87]

Re: Simple to understand

I dont like your system because its confusing to read. Makes no sense to me, and I was one of your premium subscriber.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: Simple to understand

I dont like your system because its confusing to read. Makes no sense to me, and I was one of your premium subscriber.

You never told me what you're confused about, so what can I say? Maybe read some of the previous posts above. It explains how I use simple addition (no multiplication) to tally the ebbcharts. :toung:

Start with this link: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/members-account-talk/16251-ebbs-account-talk-40.html#post449288