ebbnflow's Account Talk

[ebbnflow]

Made an IFT back to the I-fund today. Hope it works out!

 

[ebbnflow]

For those of us who went back to the I-fund for tomorrow, we're looking good. The I-fund (-.03 cents) got a -FV of two cents today. We should be getting an extra two cents as a bonus tomorrow. On top of that, if you were on Fudville today, you just gained another two cents. Let's get that Santa Claus rally going. :nuts:

 

[airlift]

Ebbnflow,
I went 100% I fund today, and I am hoping for this rally to continue during this Christmas week. Perhaps we might even get a +FV if the dollar starts to drop against the YEN and EURO. However, I am watching the technicals carefully because I would like to avoid giving back most gains either due to the end of the Christamas rally or because I overstayed my welcome in the stock market. I decided to post some technical opinions from RealMoney.com at the MarketTalk thread because I believe these can be of help to all of us in trying to find a good exit strategy. Best wishes!

For those of us who went back to the I-fund for tomorrow, we're looking good. The I-fund (-.03 cents) got a -FV of two cents today. We should be getting an extra two cents tomorrow. On top of that, if you were on Fudville today, you just gained another two cents. Let's get that Santa Claus rally going. :nuts:

 

[ebbnflow]

Ebbnflow,
I went 100% I fund today, and I am hoping for this rally to continue during this Christmas week. Perhaps we might even get a +FV if the dollar starts to drop against the YEN and EURO. However, I am watching the technicals carefully because I would like to avoid giving back most gains either due to the end of the Christamas rally or because I overstayed my welcome in the stock market. I decided to post some technical opinions from RealMoney.com at the MarketTalk thread because I believe these can be of help to all of us in trying to find a good exit strategy. Best wishes!

I hope the ebb tracker is right on the dollar going down some this week. We could use the dollar's cooperation this week. Best wishes to you also and a Happy New Year, sponsor!

 

[ebbnflow]

For those of us who went back to the I-fund for tomorrow, we're looking good. The I-fund (-.03 cents) got a -FV of two cents today. We should be getting an extra two cents as a bonus tomorrow. On top of that, if you were on Fudville today, you just gained another two cents. Let's get that Santa Claus rally going. :nuts:

It looks like we won't be getting that extra two cents tomorrow. I forgot about the -.08% we had on the I-fund Dec. 25th. Thanks to Wheels for pointing this out on the 'Playing the I-fund' thread.

 

[airlift]

Ebbnflow,
Happy New Year to you too! (and to all of the good people at TSPtalk and at the Boards also!). As you can see, the dollar seems to confirm that your tracker has picked up the right signals. Indeed, the USD is dropping, and many of us are 100% in the I fund. Since you are the technician who understands your own tracker, I am going to ask you to help all of us here. More precisely, I would ask you to be very flexible with your calibration so that we can all profit from a timely exit into the safety of the G or F funds.

I am aware vthat you are trading mostly between the F and I funds. Please set that aside, unless you can be absolutely certain that fixing-in only those two alternatives is more profitable than opening up to other possibilities. I am absolutely convinced that you have developed your tracker with the intention of helping all of us at TSPtalk. Therefore, try to pick up the best entry and exit points, because we all know that the market doesn't rise or fall in a straight line and that it will most likely start levitating on fumes very soon (if it is not levitating already!). Aside from geopolitical surprises, if historical statistics show that the rally will probably end on or around January 3, maybe you can pick up some signals that show a safer exit on January 2? I am trying to avoid giving it all back! Perhaps I am asking too much of the tracker, but you are the most qualified person to understand your own work. I have no doubt that, if you can fine-tune the ebbtracker, everyone here will be more than thankful for your contribution. Hoping my request is feasible, I remain thankful and expectant myself! Good Luck!

I hope the ebb tracker is right on the dollar going down some this week. We could use the dollar's cooperation this week. Best wishes to you also and a Happy New Year, sponsor!

 

[airlift]

I don't know if there is any correlation or if this time it will be different. However, the 6-month daily chart of the benchmark S&P500 shows that the S&P500 dropped the last two or three days of December 2005, and rose until around the 11th of January 2006, and then dropped quite a lot! Although it rose again, and ended higher than December 2005, January 2006 was very volatile.

 

[nnuut]

Jan 2006, yes I remember that one. The consensus was that the market would drop in Jan due to the Dec 2005 returns. I dropped out to safety and the market rallied (typical). The market continued to gain until May 2006, but sporadically, I lost some big gains the first part of this year, take a looook!:worried:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

 

[airlift]

Nnuut,
I saw your chart. I agree with you, because I took a hit too. But take a look at January 2006. The S&P500 rose until Jan. 11, then it dropped, and then it rose again to end the month higher. It isn't easy because it requires extraordinary technical indicator reading, but maybe we can use technical analysis (TA) with greater precision in order to take gains before it drops, and then enter again at the bottom to ride it higher and to accumulate a bigger nest egg.

Jan 2006, yes I remember that one. The consensus was that the market would drop in Jan due to the Dec 2005 returns. I dropped out to safety and the market rallied (typical). The market continued to gain until May 2006, but sporadically, I lost some big gains the first part of this year, take a looook!:worried:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

 

[nnuut]

Yes big opportunity at the 1st of the year if you can read it right! The indicators are looking pretty good to me, but you know I'm no expert! SLOW STO is diving under the low, MACD has a little ways to go, but is also looking promising. HHUUMMMM, I need some help!!!!!:nuts:

 

[airlift]

You are not alone. There are some guys here who have lots more experience in TA, so maybe they can help too!

 

[ebbnflow]

I'm glad I was able to jettison the F-fund (-.02) on time for the I-fund (+.19) today. As planned, I will be sticking with the I-fund until Friday. I will be back to the F-fund for cover next Tuesday and Wednesday. That's as far as I got on the ebb tracker. I need more data for next week's Thursday and Friday. Good luck all!

For the new year, I'll try to be more flexible by incorporating the C and S-fund to the ebb tracker. It might take me some time to gather data from those fund's price. Hope everything works out.

 

[airlift]

Best wishes!

I'm glad I was able to jettison the F-fund (-.02) on time for the I-fund (+.19) today. As planned, I will be sticking with the I-fund until Friday. I will be back to the F-fund for cover next Tuesday and Wednesday. That's as far as I got on the ebb tracker. I need more data for next week's Thursday and Friday. Good luck all!

For the new year, I'll try to be more flexible by incorporating the C and S-fund to the ebb tracker. It might take me some time to gather data from those fund's price. Hope everything works out.

 

[mailmanusa]

Yeah the C and the S usually move up and down togeather but the I many times goes the opposite way. Its nice to pick up a big gain in the I on one day as the US market drops. Buy on that drop and hopefully make another big gain in the C or S the following day. I personally think the S is better for swinging. Its changes up and down are more often greater than those of the C.

 

[ebbnflow]

Yeah the C and the S usually move up and down togeather but the I many times goes the opposite way. Its nice to pick up a big gain in the I on one day as the US market drops. Buy on that drop and hopefully make another big gain in the C or S the following day. I personally think the S is better for swinging. Its changes up and down are more often greater than those of the C.

I agree, mailmanusa. The S-fund has more volatility and therefore the risk/reward is also greater.

 

[ebbnflow]

...As planned, I will be sticking with the I-fund until Friday. I will be back to the F-fund for cover next Tuesday and Wednesday. That's as far as I got on the ebb tracker. I need more data for next week's Thursday and Friday...

A little change of plan, got my dates crossed. I just did an IFT back to the F-fund, but will be back to the I-fund for Wednesday and Thursday. Then its back again to the F-fund for cover on Friday.

 

[ebbnflow]

A little change of plan, got my dates crossed. I just did an IFT back to the F-fund, but will be back to the I-fund for Wednesday and Thursday. Then its back again to the F-fund for cover on Friday.

It looks like the US market is closed on Tuesday, so I would be back on the I-fund for next Thursday and Friday.

 

[ebbnflow]

The ebb tracker got stung again by the full moon with Tuesday's big gain for the I-fund. It's only being tempered with the dollar maxing out today. As I've said before, the ebb tracker has its down cycle and it happens to coincide with the week of the full moon. Right now it is residing at the bottom (trough) of the wave. For what it's worth, the next three weeks should be on the upswing. Just made an IFT to the I-fund as planned.

 

[airlift]

Ebbnflow,
I am going 100% I. Good Luck!

 

[airlift]

Ebbnflow,
Congratulations for the precise entry point today. Let's hope the ebbtracker stays on top of the situation. I believe you also gained, having been at the F fund until today? That's great. keep it up!