ebbnflow's Account Talk

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Oops! I almost forgot, we have a holiday coming up on Thursday, so that makes Friday a red day for me also. :mad: It looks like I won't be back in stocks until next Monday (Nov. 27). :(
 
350zCommTech said:
Did your tracker give you a signal or was this a "gut feeling"? I was planning on switching to the F fund.
Click to expand...

I got a buy signal from the ebb tracker. It does look like suicide moving to the I-fund with the Asian market following the US market. Just hoping for other mitigating forces, such as the dollar falling and a bounce from the Euro and US market tomorrow, to help some. :D
 
I think I'd have waited at least a day. But, I have to respect someone who sticks to there system no matter what. I don't (stick 100% to my system) but I'd be ahead of where I am if I had.
 
FundSurfer said:
I think I'd have waited at least a day. But, I have to respect someone who sticks to there system no matter what. I don't (stick 100% to my system) but I'd be ahead of where I am if I had.
Click to expand...

Thanks, FundSurfer! A couple more percentage added to your tally would have been nice. Waiting for a better day did cross my mind, but the other day, I read an article from Fibtimer that Robo was kind enough to share. It really strengthened my resolve to stick with the plan. The ebb tracker may have stalled the last couple of months, and after seeing how I made my gains for the year, I think this '80/20 Rule' really placed things in perspective for me.

So, whipsaws and whiffle balls be damned, 'cause I'm stickin' with the plan! :D

robo said:
...
80/20 Rule

Have you ever heard of the 80/20 Rule, also known as the Pareto Principle? Dr. Joseph Juran developed the Pareto Principle after studying the work of Wilfredo Pareto, a nineteenth century economist.

The Pareto Principle states that a small percentage of your efforts (typically around 20 percent) will create a large majority of your results (usually around 80 percent).

Expanding Pareto to trading, it follows that roughly 80% of your profits should come from only 20% of your trades.

That means there will be numerous small whipsaw losses and gains, but 20% of the trades will make ALL the profits.

"...After several small losses it is human nature to feel like giving up. This is the psychological battle that market timers MUST win! "
Think how import that makes every trade!

After several small losses it is human nature to feel like giving up. This is the psychological battle that market timers MUST win!

The markets are powered by emotions (fear and greed). But trend traders use the changes caused by those emotions, to make their profits.

If you give in to those emotions, you lose!
...
http://timing.typepad.com/timer/
Click to expand...
 
ebbnflow--
Are you still using "full moon" status as a (possible) time to be out of the market? If so, looks like there is one on Dec 5th.

If a pullback is imminent, Dec 4th might be a good time to get out of the market. I just checked and the last big pullback pretty much coincided with the May 13th full moon. Just something else I'm factoring in.

Not sure whether I'm 100% believer but still interesting.
 
There is a 20 week cycle due in about 2 weeks around 12/12. That could be problematic for the markets on a short term basis. MHO.
 
ayla said:
ebbnflow--
Are you still using "full moon" status as a (possible) time to be out of the market? If so, looks like there is one on Dec 5th.

If a pullback is imminent, Dec 4th might be a good time to get out of the market. I just checked and the last big pullback pretty much coincided with the May 13th full moon. Just something else I'm factoring in.

Not sure whether I'm 100% believer but still interesting.
Click to expand...

I'm still following it. I might step out on the 4th, 5th, and 6th. I don't believe in it either. It probably has something to do with the subconscious perception of people about the full moon, or maybe not. :D

ebbnflow said:
Code: 
2003.................................................................................Jun 16 (+.13)...Jul 14 (+.13)...Aug 12 (+.04)...Sep 10 (-.09)...Oct 10 (+.07)...Nov 10 (-.04)...Dec 08 (-.03)
2004 Jan 07 (-.10)...Feb 06 (+.16)...Mar 08 (-.05)...Apr 05 (+.05)...May 04 (+.16)...Jun 03 (-.08)...Jul 02 (+.01)...Aug 30 (-.02)...Sep 28 (+.04)...Oct 28 (+.10)...Nov 26 (+.15)...Dec 27 (+.15)
2005 Jan 25 (-.05)...Feb 24 (even)...Mar 28 (-.04)...Apr 25 (-.02)...May 23 (+.14)...Jun 22 (+.01)...Jul 21 (+.03)...Aug 19 (+.07)...Sep 19 (-.03)...Oct 17 (-.18)...Nov 16 (-.05)...Dec 15 (-.16)
2006 Jan 17 (-.28)...Feb 13 (-.06)...Mar 14 (+.15)...Apr 13 (+.03)...May 15 (-.29)...Jun 12 (-.31)...Jul 11 (-.02)...Aug 09 (even)...Sep 07 (-.28)...Oct 10 (+.04)...Nov 06 (+.15)...Dec 05 ?

2003 +0.21
2004 +0.57
2005 -0.28
2006 -0.87 (was down -1.06 two full moons ago)

It's the last couple of years we've been in the red. Just trend, not science. :D
Click to expand...
 
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That's highway robbery! Jumping to the I-fund (-.04 cents) yesterday with the market dripping red took a leap of faith. Where's the risk/reward in that! We know Barclays has a cutoff time before noon, but with the dollar falling throughout the afternoon, we should have gotten a positive FV. Again, the risk/reward was not served today. :mad:

On second thought, it wouldn't have mattered to TSP'ers still on the I-fund for tomorrow (like me). :D
 
No change, still on the I-fund. Planning to stay for a couple more days. Got back in the black with today's big payday (+.30 cents). I thought for sure I'd taste my first red month (using the ebb tracker) with only a couple days left for November. Hoping for a second helping tomorrow. Good luck all! :D
 
Ebbnflow. Congratulations! Your tracker is showing very good results. What is your opinion regarding the performance of the G vs. the F fund going forward?
 
Manufacturing data just came out, and it looks like the economy is still slowing. Feds might cut rates, so to the F-train I go. :D

Made an IFT back to the F-train as planned. Nice +2% run up the last couple of days on the I-fund. Good luck all! :)

On a side note, I celebrate passing my goal for the year (+30%). :D
 
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