ebbnflow's Account Talk

[CopterDoc]

I'm looking at going 100% I Fund today but will wait till 11:30 to make my decision. If it keeps going down this morning I'll jump in. What is your train of thought?

Scott

 

[350zCommTech]

I'm looking at going 100% I Fund today but will wait till 11:30 to make my decision. If it keeps going down this morning I'll jump in. What is your train of thought?

Scott

What makes you think it's down?

 

[CopterDoc]

was down yesterday-0.14%, if it continued down I was going to move from the G Fund. I fund just opened up +0.49%. So now I have to wait and see what happens this morning.

Scott

 

[ebbnflow]

I'm looking at going 100% I Fund today but will wait till 11:30 to make my decision. If it keeps going down this morning I'll jump in. What is your train of thought?

Scott

Hi ya, Scott! Just following the dictates of the ebb tracker. It tries to match market patterns between the past and present, hoping for past market history to repeat itself.

Dang, I checked the tsp.gov site and it seems that I forgot to make the IFT to the G-fund on my real account. That's what happens when you don't make an IFT for a week! Still on the F-train, but on the G-fund today for tracking purposes.

By the way, 350zCommTech might be right about the I-fund with the dollar down a whole lot. It might take the Footsie and the US market to tank for the I-fund to crumble.

 

[350zCommTech]

Hi ya, Scott! Just following the dictates of the ebb tracker. It tries to match market patterns between the past and present, hoping for past market history to repeat itself.

You have your ebb tracker; I have my gut feeling. And it's telling me that Japan is about to shoot up.

 

[ATCJeff]

You have your ebb tracker; I have my gut feeling. And it's telling me that Japan is about to shoot up.

CommTech I hope your right, I've been I fund since the 2nd. I've pretty much decided to stay invest through Marchish'. I may move between the C, S and I, but I'm 100% invested.

 

[ebbnflow]

You have your ebb tracker; I have my gut feeling. And it's telling me that Japan is about to shoot up.

I'm with you, I'm back on the I-fund Monday thru Wednesday.

 

[350zCommTech]

I'm with you, I'm back on the I-fund Monday thru Wednesday.

I'm planning on moving out on Tueday and going more concervative like 80C/20S. What does your tracker say about days of the Fed announcement or minutes? I'm thinking next Tuesday might be a day for a +FV.

 

[ebbnflow]

I've added a few more MAJOR WORLD INDICES to Show-Me's links for monitoring the I-fund. Be forewarned though, with all the blinking lights, an epileptic seizure is sure to follow.

ASIA/PACIFIC: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?s=^N300,^N225,^AORD,^HSI,^STI,^NZ50
EUROPE: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?s=^FT...EX,^MIBTEL,^OMXSPI,^BFX,OMXC20.CO,^OSEAX,^ATX
EUROPE & US: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?s=^FT...XC20.CO,^OSEAX,^ATX,^DJI,^GSPC,^DWCPF+EFA+AGG

ASIA/PACIFIC STARTS AT 7:00 PM ET

COUNTRY		 SYMBOL		WEIGHT

JAPAN...........^N300.(^N225)...(21.98%)
AUSTRALIA.......^AORD............(4.93%)
HONG KONG.......^HSI.............(1.48%)
SINGAPORE.......^STI.............(0.83%)
NEW ZEALAND.....^NZ50............(0.23%)

EUROPE STARTS AT 3:00 AM ET

UNITED KINGDOM..^FTSE...........(25.21%)
FRENCH..........^FCHI............(9.46%)
GERMANY.........^GDAXI...........(7.17%)
SWITZERLAND.....^SSMI............(7.02%)
NETHERLANDS.....^AEX.............(4.88%)
SPAIN...........^IBEX............(4.21%)
ITALY...........^MIBTEL..........(3.56%)
SWEDEN..........^OMXSPI..........(2.58%)
BELGIUM.........^BFX.............(1.37%)
DENMARK..........OMXC20.CO.......(0.80%)
NORWAY..........^OSEAX...........(0.64%)
AUSTRIA.........^ATX.............(0.37%)

UNITED STATES STARTS AT 9:30 AM ET

DOW JONES	^DJI
S&P 500 	^GSPC
WILSHIRE 4500 	^DWCPF
MSCI EAFE 	 EFA
LEH AGG (F-fund) AGG

Real time US Dollar rate ticker: http://www.forexdirectory.net/quotesfx.html

USD Index chart: http://quotes.ino.com:801/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=w&w=15&t=l&a=2

The U.S. Dollar Index is computed using a trade-weighted geometric average of six currencies. The six currencies and their trade weights are:

Euro............(57.6%)
 
Japan/yen.......(13.6%)
 
UK/pound........(11.9%)
 
Canada/dollar....(9.1%)
 
Sweden/krona.....(4.2%)
 
Switzerland/franc(3.6%)

These contract specifications are subject to change.

 

[airlift]

Thanks for the additional links. I noted that you stated: JAPAN...........^N300.(^N225)...(21.98%)
. Is the Nikkei 300 the same as the Nikkei 225?

 

[ebbnflow]

The N225 is more like our DOW JONES, and the N300 the S&P 500. Barclay looks at the N300, but I included the N225 because it's so much easier gauging it's ebbs and flows. Right now, the Nikkei 225's 16,000 mark is akin to the DOW's 12,000 mark.

 

[airlift]

If Barclays looks to the N300 more than the N225, I surmise that they believe the N300 is more representative of Japan's Big Caps; and therefore the N300 would be the equivalent Japan benchmark index that the money managers would strive to outperform? I was not able to find the N300 in the StockChart data base, so I made a special request for inclusion. Hope they include it. --

The N225 is more like our DOW JONES, and the N300 the S&P 500. Barclay looks at the N300, but I included the N225 because it's so much easier gauging it's ebbs and flows. Right now, the Nikkei 225's 16,000 mark is akin to the DOW's 12,000 mark.

 

[ebbnflow]

I forgot, I didn't include the Nikkei 225 in the link, Show-Me had it in already. Maybe he feels the same way about the N255 as I do. With the Nikkei down last week, Show-Me did say he expects it to have some pop for next week.

The Yahoo link for the Nikkei 225 has a 20 minute delay, but someone on the MB posted this link before:

http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/CF/FR/MKJ/

It's closer to real time and also includes the Nikkei 300 update. And if you want an even more up-to-date ticker (by about a minute) with Yahoo's automatic update functionality, I use this link:

Nikkei 225: http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/basic.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=123712&symb=JP:1804610

Nikkei 300: http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/basic.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=125497&symb=JP:1885002

Is this overkill? Why, of course it is!

 

[ebbnflow]

To create links right on your DESKTOP, right-click on any link above and choose Copy Shortcut. Go to your DESKTOP, right-click on any free space and choose Paste Shortcut. That's it, and you can rename the long name to something like USD INDEX, ASIA, EUROPE, or NIKKEI 300. One click and you're there!

 

[fabijo]

If only we got paid to do this! I could have stock tickers flowing around the top of my living room wall. I'd have separate plasma monitors tuned into live quotes of all the world's indexes. I'd have a special touch screen display that I could draw trend lines, supports, and resistance. I'd have multi terra byte servers storing as much data as possible - ranging from stock prices, index prices, world events, different political party statistics, temperature, weather, full moon data, and everything between. I'd have a team of people writing code to sort through the data and find patterns....

oh well.

 

[ebbnflow]

Wow fabijo, you sure know how to make a grown man cry. Virtual stock tickers, touch screen displays, multiple-plasmas! Come one, come all. Now more than ever, I want to reach the million plateau so I can splurge on some of these high-tech goodies.

 

[ebbnflow]

Sticking with the plan, made an IFT to the F-train. I will be back on the I-fund for Friday. I hope I don't get whipsawed.

 

[ebbnflow]

Before I forget, I just did an IFT back to the I-fund. It's another one day stint. Next week, it's back to the F-train.

 

[ebbnflow]

Pullback, pullback, here it comes! :blink: Just did an IFT to the F-train. Have a good weekend everybody.

 

[ebbnflow]

Lately, we've been getting a lot of false positives on pullback calls. On top of that, I've been the poster child for "WHIPSAWED" this week, so I'm glad the ebb tracker sees Monday through Thursday as red. These patterns are in the 80% to 90% chance of probability kind. :blink: I'm sensing that something big is about to go down. I don't plan to mess around with it, and will be out of stocks until Friday. Staying on the F-train. Good luck all!