ebbnflow's Account Talk

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Congratulations for your decision. IMO, the fundamental point is that you can make money in all funds at some point, and it is a sound decision to measure and include these other funds in your ebbtracker. Waiting see your IFT's and to read your results. The best of luck to you!

ebbnflow said:
That's right, ChemEng. It's going to be an uphill battle, but I enjoy a challenge. :D
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sponsor said:
Congratulations for your decision. IMO, the fundamental point is that you can make money in all funds at some point, and it is a sound decision to measure and include these other funds in your ebbtracker. Waiting see your IFT's and to read your results. The best of luck to you!
Click to expand...

It's a long time coming, Sponsor! I could have saved my butt last Wednesday if it had crossed my mind to switch to the S-fund instead of force-feeding myself with a risky move to a downtrending I-fund. The new additions to the ebbtracker already paid dividends. I would have been on the G-fund today where it not for a buy signal I got from the S-fund. I feel more free and liberated. :D
 
ebb, congrats on updating the tracker! I gotta a quick (or not so quick) question for you...

It looks like your tracker compares the most recent price movements to find similar movements in the past. Are you doing this in Excel, Access, or some other program? If that is what you are doing, how do you get it to match or closely match a pattern to a previous pattern? I know that a pattern will not always match exactly to one in the past, but they may be similar. How do you program the computer to see similarities? Everything I do with a computer, it wants exact equality or else it is not true.

Does my question even make sense? :)
 
fabijo said:
ebb, congrats on updating the tracker! I gotta a quick (or not so quick) question for you...

It looks like your tracker compares the most recent price movements to find similar movements in the past. Are you doing this in Excel, Access, or some other program? If that is what you are doing, how do you get it to match or closely match a pattern to a previous pattern? I know that a pattern will not always match exactly to one in the past, but they may be similar. How do you program the computer to see similarities? Everything I do with a computer, it wants exact equality or else it is not true.

Does my question even make sense? :)
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That's right fabijo, I keep tabs of price movements, euro, yen, and pound in relation to the dollar. I also keep a dollar tally on how much each pattern lost or won. I use different sets of arrays like A1(x,y,z) and store it in a database program (the ebbtracker). It's hard to find many exact pattern matches, so I go by range. I read in Show-me's thread that he once had a Commodore 64, that's 64 kilobytes of awesome memory. :blink: That was my first computer, too! It brings back a lot of memories (or lack thereof). :D

I remember a family member asking me to create a code for a subroutine to make simulated letters (with address) move faster on screen. I said I knew nothing about using the much faster assembly language (we're both using basic language at the time -- very slow). Once he showed it to me, I wrote the machine code, used a disassembler to turn it into numeric data, called the subroutine inside the program, and got the letter's addresses zipping across the screen. Yep, those were the good old days, simple and stupid enough to think that anything is doable. :)
 
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ebbnflow said:
I read in Show-me's thread that he once had a Commodore 64, that's 64 kilobytes of awesome memory. :blink: That was my first computer, too! It brings back a lot of memories (or lack thereof). :D
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Oh, man! I remember the Commodore 64! When I was a kid, my friend had one. The both of us would write little programs. Since it was his computer, he learned much faster than I did. I remember him having sheets of paper that he could fill in squares to draw his own characters.

But you answered my question by saying that you used ranges. That makes sense. I guess just getting it going and playing with the ranges would be the way to see what there is to see.

I just read a book on fractals and market behavior. Some of the topics he spoke about made me think of your tracker. An interesting thing about fractals is that the smaller movements are often just smaller versions of the bigger movements. So if you were comparing price movements of a 5 day period, then comparing that with all previous 5 day periods, you could go further and use weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. So a pattern like .1, .3, .2, .3, .5 on a daily chart for 5 days could resemble a monthly chart for 5 months - maybe something like 1, 3, 2, 3, 5

Thanks for being open to discussing your tracker!
 
Now that I have three funds that I can go to, I got to figure the best place to be in depending on the ebbtracker's signals. For this week:

TWTGGRGGGGGR.jpg


I'm going to stay with the S-fund for Tuesday and Wednesday. And since the ebbtracker has the C and I-fund showing red for Thursday, I'm back to safe haven (F-fund) for Thursday. The S-fund is usually in tandem with the C-fund, so I won't risk being in stocks. :)
 
fabijo said:
Oooh. You're starting to look very professional! :)
Great work!
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Thanks, fabijo. Right now, it's the only thing I got going for me. I just saw Rokid's tally for the year and guess who's at the bottom. It's me baby! I got nowhere to go but up, and it sure would be fun picking off people one by one. :D
 
Show-me said:
Hey,

My sweet mother still has my Commodore 64. Aw gez, I can believe I just told you that. LOL
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I used to have the 64. A few years ago, I bought a Commodore 128 on eBay just so I could play "Bard's Tale", which I also bought on eBay. Remember that RPG??? Now, it's all in my attic, along with my Atari 2600 and Coleco Vision. I'll have to dust them off again one day... :p

God Bless:)
 
Rod said:
I used to have the 64. A few years ago, I bought a Commodore 128 on eBay just so I could play "Bard's Tale", which I also bought on eBay. Remember that RPG??? Now, it's all in my attic, along with my Atari 2600 and Coleco Vision. I'll have to dust them off again one day... :p

God Bless:)
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I had a VIC20! "Bards Tail" was a grreat game. Thank you for bringing back some memories....:)
 
There was a time years ago when I had a $30K profit in Coleco stock. I believed their Ceo's lies about the Adam computer. When I finally gave up I got away with only a $10K profit. Live and learn - that was a $20K learning experience. Snorff.
 
fabijo said:
...I just read a book on fractals and market behavior. Some of the topics he spoke about made me think of your tracker. An interesting thing about fractals is that the smaller movements are often just smaller versions of the bigger movements. So if you were comparing price movements of a 5 day period, then comparing that with all previous 5 day periods, you could go further and use weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. So a pattern like .1, .3, .2, .3, .5 on a daily chart for 5 days could resemble a monthly chart for 5 months - maybe something like 1, 3, 2, 3, 5

Thanks for being open to discussing your tracker!
Click to expand...

Fabijo, check out this site for financial engineers. This might be right up your alley. You can download excel spreadsheets showing you how to do matrix algebra and all kinds of stuff related to tracking stocks. Check their archives! :D

http://www.fenews.com/fen41/
http://www.fenews.com/fen41/back_to_basics/back_to_basics.html
 
Ebb,
I don't always follow . However, I was in the F fund today and it was the only positive TSP fund. If oueep this up, I might as well go on automatic pilot with you eventually. Congratulations!
 
sponsor said:
Ebb,
I don't always follow . However, I was in the F fund today and it was the only positive TSP fund. If oueep this up, I might as well go on automatic pilot with you eventually. Congratulations!
Click to expand...

Thanks, I'm glad we got something out of the F-fund. It's nice to have cross-checking function added to the ebbtracker. The stop signal on the C-fund prevented me from going to the S-fund (-.18 cents). :)
 
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