ebbnflow's Account Talk

[dell]

Birch: Are you in the S fund for Tues and if so, why?

Thanks - Dell

 

[caymanbrac12]

That's true. It's easy to come up with a system that worked for a year or two. How about buying at Friday's close and selling at Monday's close. You would have made out like a bandit in 2007 but not so good in 2006. Only time will tell if a system actually works or is simply reading tea leaves. On the other hand if you waited 5 or 10 years for investing in Warren Buffet or Peter Lynch you would have missed their biggest years.

As for me I'll probably sign up once the kinks are worked out.

Not quite. Those guys have been successful for a helluva alot longer than 5 to 10 years and following them after a proven track record is the only intelligent way to approach it in IMHO (and you still would have made alot of money with those guys). Only a fool follows someone with less than a year of performance again imho. And quoting you "using making out like a bandit in 07 as opposed to the transaction on 06 - I have no idea what that proves or doesn't prove or what you even mean. Did Ebb make the call on both dates?

 

[charmed855]

To me going to the G fund is too big a risk. You got to be in to win.

Wrong thread buddy. Go play in the buy and hold sandbox. :toung:

 

[Birchtree]

dell,

I'm currently 88% C and 12% I. No reason to chase the S fund.

Charmed - try not to be jealous. It's not lady like.

 

[camper65]

I/m in (I think! Computer glitch!!!) with some reservation. I have to ask, “is the system flexible enough to keep up with a changing market." Seems I’ve seen this before. There are times, and this appears to be one of those times that the market will advance regardless of the news. Did you noticed how little the market reacted to the last terrorist attack in London? The housing problem is now a dead issue and with the news coming for the financial sector today, chances are the credit problem will follow the same route.
Jobs report may hold the market back, (and I intend to be sitting in G on that day) but if it is anything like last month your talking about a one day disruption. (Just my opinion you understand)

 

[Bigdave125]

EBB, I notice that we seem to be off by a day, lately. Does that have anything to do with the fed rate cut almost 2 weeks ago and could it have throw off your cycles? Just curious.

 

[Birchtree]

It's all due to the "Cooler" lurking. I think he'll be around for another two weeks.

 

[BeaverState]

Not quite. Those guys have been successful for a helluva alot longer than 5 to 10 years and following them after a proven track record is the only intelligent way to approach it in IMHO (and you still would have made alot of money with those guys). Only a fool follows someone with less than a year of performance again imho. And quoting you "using making out like a bandit in 07 as opposed to the transaction on 06 - I have no idea what that proves or doesn't prove or what you even mean. Did Ebb make the call on both dates?

I was agreeing with you on your premise that a year or two of backtesting is not sufficient. What I was trying to say is it is easy to come up with a system that works over the past year, or more. There is even software that will do this backtesting for you. My example was a system where you buy on Friday and sell on Monday. In 2007 you would have made good money. But if you go back and did that system in 2006 it would have been a disaster.

 

[charmed855]

EBB, I notice that we seem to be off by a day, lately. Does that have anything to do with the fed rate cut almost 2 weeks ago and could it have throw off your cycles? Just curious.

I think it has something to do with the equinox.

 

[Bigdave125]

EBB, I notice that we seem to be off by a day, lately. Does that have anything to do with the fed rate cut almost 2 weeks ago and could it have throw off your cycles? Just curious.

Hope this doesn't sound like complaining, because I don't mean to be. I am a believer and will continue to be!

 

[BeaverState]

Hope this doesn't sound like complaining, because I don't mean to be. I am a believer and will continue to be!

He still handily beat the C & S fund last month.

 

[cap32]

It's all due to the "Cooler" lurking. I think he'll be around for another two weeks.

okay I'll bite who is the cooler?:blink:

 

[nnuut]

okay I'll bite who is the cooler?:blink:

BIRCHTREE!!!! LOL :laugh:

 

[cap32]

his alter ego:laugh:

 

[post]

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Ebb,

Your everywhere.

 

[Birchtree]

The "Cooler" is the guy by reputation that has the worst luck ever. Kind of like the character Pig Pen with all that dirt following where ever he goes. The "Cooler" is hired in Las Vegas to stand next to you when you are having a run of good luck - he's the houses edge to turn you off. So someone on the board summoned the "Cooler" - a paid assassin of bad luck to wreak havoc. He's not someone you necessarily want to associate with. Now do you understand? Have bad luck - will travel.

 

[Bigdave125]

Is it just me, or is there a problem with some of the text not having spaces between words on the ebbcharts page (subscription)?

This is part of what I see:

Hereistheupdatedtallyforeachpattern(1-8)ontheebbchartfromJanuary16throughOct.1,2007. Thetallyforpatterns1,2, 4and7showsthenumberofupdaysandtotalgainswhenusingtheC, SorI-fund. Thetallyforpatterns3,5, 6and8showsthenumberofdowndaysandtotallosssavedfortheC, SorI-fund. Theebbcharthastwosetsofpatterns: Oneset(1,2, 4and7)goestostocks(I-fund)andtheotherset(3,5, 6and8)goestosafehaven(G/F)


Veryhardtoread!!!

 

[Bigdave125]

Also, the link to the September charts doesn't work.

http://www.tsptalk.com/ebbchart/images/ebbtracker_0907.gif

 

[Bigdave125]

EBB,

Are you going to be posting the trading system returns as you did on your old page?

EbbChart Trading System Return as of - 9/28/07 EbbChartSystemG FundF FundC FundS FundI Fund20% Each2007 Totals:27.39% 3.67% 4.04% 10.64% 10.98% 14.85% 8.84% L 2040L 2030L 2020L 2010L INC 10.71% 9.91% 8.99% 7.02% 5.41% ​

It was always nice to see how you (and we) are doing in relation to the other funds. Please post it on your new pages, if possible.


Thanks,

Bigdave

 

[ebbnflow]

Is it just me, or is there a problem with some of the text not having spaces between words on the ebbcharts page (subscription)?

This is part of what I see:

Hereistheupdatedtallyforeachpattern(1-8)ontheebbchartfromJanuary16throughOct.1,2007. Thetallyforpatterns1,2, 4and7showsthenumberofupdaysandtotalgainswhenusingtheC, SorI-fund. Thetallyforpatterns3,5, 6and8showsthenumberofdowndaysandtotallosssavedfortheC, SorI-fund. Theebbcharthastwosetsofpatterns: Oneset(1,2, 4and7)goestostocks(I-fund)andtheotherset(3,5, 6and8)goestosafehaven(G/F)


Veryhardtoread!!!

BigDave125, I'm sure Tom would be fixing that as soon as he finds out about it.

Also, the link to the September charts doesn't work.

http://www.tsptalk.com/ebbchart/images/ebbtracker_0907.gif

Yeah, I noticed that too, Bigdave125.

EBB,

Are you going to be posting the trading system returns as you did on your old page?

EbbChart Trading System Return as of - 9/28/07 EbbChartSystemG FundF FundC FundS FundI Fund20% Each2007 Totals:27.39% 3.67% 4.04% 10.64% 10.98% 14.85% 8.84% L 2040L 2030L 2020L 2010L INC 10.71% 9.91% 8.99% 7.02% 5.41% ​

It was always nice to see how you (and we) are doing in relation to the other funds. Please post it on your new pages, if possible.


Thanks,

Bigdave

Most likely, BigDave and you're welcome!