DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

[TSP-roulette]

Just my last say on Joe Bonamassa's concert gigs in Texas: San Antonio, Abilene, and Amarillo. If at all possible go see Joe's concert, believe me, you won't be disappointed, he plays his heart out, just feel the passion. Just one more video clip here. If this blues song doesn't pull at your heart strings.. well we're zombies then. No offense intended.

Joe Bonamassa - If Heartaches Were Nickels LIVE at the Beacon Theatre - YouTube

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Wow, first time I had to put on the headphones to read TSPTalk! SRV is obviously a guitar god. And I don't ever see many people talking up Joe Bonamassa, and he'll be here in San Antonio soon! So I've forgotten why I'm in this forum!

M&M=Market and Music!! :laugh: gotta have something good to take the edge off!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Just my last say on Joe Bonamassa's concert gigs in Texas: San Antonio, Abilene, and Amarillo. If at all possible go see Joe's concert, believe me, you won't be disappointed, he plays his heart out, just feel the passion. Just one more video clip here. If this blues song doesn't pull at your heart strings.. well we're zombies then. No offense intended.

Joe Bonamassa - If Heartaches Were Nickels LIVE at the Beacon Theatre - YouTube[/url

Hi TSP roulette, That is a great song! Lots of emotion there....I definitely want to see Bonamassa in SA. I gotta check dates again, my sister's planning a trip for us to Vegas first week in April which is when I think he's gonna be an hour down the road in SA. Let me know how the concert goes in SLC. If I'm lucky I might make the SA concert.Bye for now..DBA

 

[nnuut]

I'm a Joe fan for many years, one of the best guitarist there is. The blues man and I like his voice, kinda half Joe Cocker and Half something else a great technician but has is more cool now than crude as before, anyway he is great. This is now!
One of my favorites:

 

[nnuut]

Now this is what I call Blues guitar playing! Sorry I can't help it.:embarrest: This is before.

 

[konakathy]

Hey girl! Have you ever been to the New Orleans Jazz Fest? I've been 2 times and it is AWESOME !!! If you love music...jazz, blues, rock, reggae, country, gospel or whatever, they got it all.

I had so much fun...I'm seriously thinking abut going this year. I like the lineup they have arranged.

New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Now this is what I call Blues guitar playing! Sorry I can't help it.:embarrest: This is before.

Yes sir!! Very nice guitar. Very talented. I've started watching his videos on YouTube. I really want to hear him live.... I love the blues, always have.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hey girl! Have you ever been to the New Orleans Jazz Fest? I've been 2 times and it is AWESOME !!! If you love music...jazz, blues, rock, reggae, country, gospel or whatever, they got it all.

I had so much fun...I'm seriously thinking abut going this year. I like the lineup they have arranged.

New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival

Hi Konakathy, Love NO Jazz fest. Went last year..My son is a trumpet player in HS and is in a jazz band. The kids performed inn a competition in Lafayette and got to go. Awesome! We're planning to go this year the week before the fest for another competition so I think we are going to miss it this year. Hey if your ever in Austin send me a PM so we can go listen to some good music.

P.s. I think line up indicateD Eric Clapton would be there.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I've been looking at various articles on market trends. Found this by Chris Ciovacco at Safehaven. It's really good and even better is the link to this weeks analysis! I learned a lot just watching the video. I like this guy. Seems to know his stuff. I'm going to try to keep up with his comments. He also had link to video where he discusses indicators to help detect a flash market crash before it happens. Very interesting..second link below. What I like is that he talks about not trying to predict the future but instead relying on observable evidence and managing risk.


Bonds Can Help Stock Investors Monitor Correction Risk | Chris Ciovacco | Safehaven.com

http://youtu.be/kWkNv4HBMYs

 

[skycophigh]

Hi Dreamboat, thanks for the info, I have been following the slow stochastic charts when i can find them, where can i find them on a daily basis????? thanks for all your help...Sky






QUOTE=DreamboatAnnie;438642]I've been looking at various articles on market trends. Found this by Chris Ciovacco at Safehaven. It's really good and even better is the link to this weeks analysis! I learned a lot just watching the video. I like this guy. Seems to know his stuff. I'm going to try to keep up with his comments. He also had link to video where he discusses indicators to help detect a flash market crash before it happens. Very interesting..second link below. What I like is that he talks about not trying to predict the future but instead relying on observable evidence and managing risk.


Bonds Can Help Stock Investors Monitor Correction Risk | Chris Ciovacco | Safehaven.com

Stock Correction: When It Comes, Will You Be Ready? - YouTube[/QUOTE]

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi Dreamboat, thanks for the info, I have been following the slow stochastic charts when i can find them, where can i find them on a daily basis????? thanks for all your help...Sky


QUOTE=DreamboatAnnie;438642]I've been looking at various articles on market trends. Found this by Chris Ciovacco at Safehaven. It's really good and even better is the link to this weeks analysis! I learned a lot just watching the video. I like this guy. Seems to know his stuff. I'm going to try to keep up with his comments. He also had link to video where he discusses indicators to help detect a flash market crash before it happens. Very interesting..second link below. What I like is that he talks about not trying to predict the future but instead relying on observable evidence and managing risk.


Bonds Can Help Stock Investors Monitor Correction Risk | Chris Ciovacco | Safehaven.com

Stock Correction: When It Comes, Will You Be Ready? - YouTube

Hi skycophigh, I use bigcharts.com. Here is link to it . This link is set to show DWCPF, which S fund tracks.
Looking at left side of that link you can change it to use indicators you want. This is set to show EMA 10, 20, 50 day averages, plus Bollinger bands, and both slow and fast Stochastics. But you can select others and then hit draw button to see the redraw. Also can set to other time frames and periods.

I have a bookmark for each fund set this same way. I just click on my links and it automatically pulls up the most current data as bigcharts is using real time data. So if you look to left at that link you can enter SPX to set bookmark for C fund, EFA for I fund, and AGG for F fund. These are what the TSP funds track.

DWCPF- S fund tacks
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XXWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XXWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

Here are the other links. Just bookmark each one and your set.

SPX - C fund
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=SPX&time=7&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=6%2F20%2F2013&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=6&maval=10%2C20%2C50&uf=8&lf=4&lf2=32&lf3=16&type=4&style=370&size=4&x=54&y=6&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11

EFA - I fund
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Fund&symb=XX%3AEFA&time=7&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=6%2F20%2F2013&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=6&maval=10%2C20%2C50&uf=8&lf=4&lf2=32&lf3=16&type=4&style=370&size=4&x=50&y=9&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11

F Fund - AGG
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Fund&symb=XX%3AAGG&time=7&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=6%2F20%2F2013&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=6&maval=10%2C20%2C50&uf=8&lf=4&lf2=32&lf3=16&type=4&style=370&size=4&x=56&y=11&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11

 

[skycophigh]

wow, thanks for the insight, u are a doll, happy trading... cheers...









=DreamboatAnnie;438721]Hi skycophigh, I use bigcharts.com. Here is link to it . This link is set to show DWCPF, which S fund tracks.
Looking at left side of that link you can change it to use indicators you want. This is set to show EMA 10, 20, 50 day averages, plus Bollinger bands, and both slow and fast Stochastics. But you can select others and then hit draw button to see the redraw. Also can set to other time frames and periods.

I have a bookmark for each fund set this same way. I just click on my links and it automatically pulls up the most current data as bigcharts is using real time data. So if you look to left at that link you can enter SPX to set bookmark for C fund, EFA for I fund, and AGG for F fund. These are what the TSP funds track.

DWCPF- S fund tacks
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XXWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XXWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

Here are the other links. Just bookmark each one and your set.

SPX - C fund
S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

EFA - I fund
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, EFA Advanced Chart - (NAR) EFA, iShares MSCI EAFE ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com

F Fund - AGG
iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF, AGG Advanced Chart - (NAR) AGG, iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com[/QUOTE]

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I'm working to modify my strategy to not be so underinvested and out of market too long. While the down I took last week was not due to my strategy, but rather due to a late execution, I am noticing (while looking back at past 8 months) that I am just not in enough with strategy so it needs a tweak. Hopefully that will put me on a better track this year.

I am really liking Chris Ciovacco's articles at safehaven. He seems to have a well-grounded outlook on how to invest, and using indicators and moving averages in different ways along with lots of other charts like consumer staples, financial sectors. His approach is also to manage risk (assessing how much to be invested based on the indicators and market signals). Also like that he talks in depth about using actual market indicators based on what has happened as opposed to trying to predict what will happen next. Seems like a logical and simple approach. He uses lots indicators and a fancy model so I am learning more about those indicators. Some of those are not available on Bigcharts.com so I likely will also need to start using stockcharts.com.

This link has to do with being underinvested.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/32422/concerned-about-being-underinvested-you-should-be

 

[konakathy]

Hi Konakathy, Love NO Jazz fest. Went last year..My son is a trumpet player in HS and is in a jazz band. The kids performed inn a competition in Lafayette and got to go. Awesome! We're planning to go this year the week before the fest for another competition so I think we are going to miss it this year. Hey if your ever in Austin send me a PM so we can go listen to some good music.

P.s. I think line up indicateD Eric Clapton would be there.

Aloha DB... I have always wanted to visit Austin for its music scene. I will definitely connect with you when I visit.

Mahalo

 

[ravensfan]

Thanks Ravensfan! for links. That should help and will work with it later tonight or this weekend. I was just looking at DWCPF chart and looks like market may continue to meander further down to around 965 to 975. I won't go back in until it goes to that level for S fund. Slow Stochastic is still too high so I think it will go down more and of course would like to see it around 15 or 20 to jump back in.

On SPX chart for C fund, it looks very close to what I see as a retracement of about 1815. However, the Slow stochastic is still too high so that makes me think prices may go down further during the next 5 days ( of course with its unpredictable up/ down meandering).

Again will look for both to hit or go closer to the lower Bollinger band and/ or 50 EMA before finding bottom.

Annie,

Did you ever get a chance to check out the returns calculator on the utilities page? If so, what did you think? Also, how about these markets lately. It's times like these that I would foolheartedly jump into the market, only to see the numbers head south. That's why I'm glad to finally have a system and I'm sticking to it...

ravensfan

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Annie,

Did you ever get a chance to check out the returns calculator on the utilities page? If so, what did you think? Also, how about these markets lately. It's times like these that I would foolheartedly jump into the market, only to see the numbers head south. That's why I'm glad to finally have a system and I'm sticking to it...

ravensfan

Hi Ravensfan! Yep...it is difficult to find an entry right now....I was wondering if you had gotten back in. Both S and C have good indicators but SPX Bollinger bands are contracting on SPX so would like to see where that goes, or if a correction occurs. Today, watched price on DOW going downward almost to 100 point drop before noon CST but bulls pulled it out!

I'm still reviewing and reading more about indicators at chartschool.com to determine the new parameters for my strategy. The entry strategy had been good so waiting for those to hit. However, still working to tweak exit to not be underinvested. However, while I know we could get hit with another correction, it looks like market is going to continue upward overall....but I'm waiting for a little pullback. Will see... The F fund was looking interesting on the daily indicators but once I looked at weekly and monthly, it still did not look positive enough to buy...so that is a wait as well.

Oh...drat..I have not yet looked at that tool. I'll comment once I check it out.. Been wanting to do that and really need to! Also have to look at two others.....just been too tired lately..working long hours, and friends visiting from out of town. Lacking sleep! :cheesy: Yes.. I'm slipping up.

 

[bucket]

hi dreamboat, it has been a while since i have been on this post. as you know i mentioned i was going to follow that spreadsheet for the remaining of 2013. At the the end of the 2013 my PIP was 28.83 and my wifes was 29.08. she was also using the spreadsheet. A colleague of mine really looked at this hard and said what the heck and we are currently still using the sheet. it would be unfair to say we followed it to a tee but i would say 95%, we did make a call to change but i can't recall at this time what it was, currently TAD and don't have my paper with me. I think it was more bouncing between alt 2 and alt 3. So as it stands this year, i am currently in S (alt 2) and will continue to follow the sheet with all the ups and downs. i will try and do better better about posting where i am at on this/your site here. Thanks for all your postings and insight as well as the others you communicate with here. its just plain awesome. thanks bucket, ps, haven't been using the tracker much, keep forgetting to change when i make the tsp transfers. cheers,

 

[ravensfan]

Hi Ravensfan! Yep...it is difficult to find an entry right now....I was wondering if you had gotten back in. Both S and C have good indicators but SPX Bollinger bands are contracting on SPX so would like to see where that goes, or if a correction occurs. Today, watched price on DOW going downward almost to 100 point drop before noon CST but bulls pulled it out!

I'm still reviewing and reading more about indicators at chartschool.com to determine the new parameters for my strategy. The entry strategy had been good so waiting for those to hit. However, still working to tweak exit to not be underinvested. However, while I know we could get hit with another correction, it looks like market is going to continue upward overall....but I'm waiting for a little pullback. Will see... The F fund was looking interesting on the daily indicators but once I looked at weekly and monthly, it still did not look positive enough to buy...so that is a wait as well.

Oh...drat..I have not yet looked at that tool. I'll comment once I check it out.. Been wanting to do that and really need to! Also have to look at two others.....just been too tired lately..working long hours, and friends visiting from out of town. Lacking sleep! :cheesy: Yes.. I'm slipping up.

Hey DBA

Like you, I am sitting in the G Fund waiting for a pullback to get back in. Currently all the indicators I track are at the upper end of their ranges. DWCPF and EFA hit new highs yesterday and S&P hit a new high on 1/15.

For the month, F Fund is +.99%, C Fund is -.17%, S Fund is + 1.16% and I Fund is + .16%. So with the exception of the C Fund, we are definately heading higher.

It's times like this that I have to fight the urge to jump back in. When things are rosey, it's easy to get caught up in the moment and I feel like I'm missing out on another rally. But experience has taught me to be patient and to trust my strategy.

I saw your post on being underinvested. I haven't read it yet, but plan to do so today. I'm also interested in how you tweak your exit strategy. Please share when you get it figuired out.

Finally, I hope you can get some rest. We're digging out of 12" of snow this morning so once the driveway is cleared, it's plenty of rest for me.

Bye for now...ravensfan

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

hi dreamboat, it has been a while since i have been on this post. as you know i mentioned i was going to follow that spreadsheet for the remaining of 2013. At the the end of the 2013 my PIP was 28.83 and my wifes was 29.08. she was also using the spreadsheet. A colleague of mine really looked at this hard and said what the heck and we are currently still using the sheet. it would be unfair to say we followed it to a tee but i would say 95%, we did make a call to change but i can't recall at this time what it was, currently TAD and don't have my paper with me. I think it was more bouncing between alt 2 and alt 3. So as it stands this year, i am currently in S (alt 2) and will continue to follow the sheet with all the ups and downs. i will try and do better better about posting where i am at on this/your site here. Thanks for all your postings and insight as well as the others you communicate with here. its just plain awesome. thanks bucket, ps, haven't been using the tracker much, keep forgetting to change when i make the tsp transfers. cheers,

Hi Bucket..I was wondering how you were doing and whether you had kept up with using that mstrzerg method. I am going to try to update the spreadsheet and post it here just to show how the methods are working. I would just keep an eye on moving averages that might give a tip on flash crash. In any case, great to here from you and to know that strategy is working....

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hey DBA

Like you, I am sitting in the G Fund waiting for a pullback to get back in. Currently all the indicators I track are at the upper end of their ranges. DWCPF and EFA hit new highs yesterday and S&P hit a new high on 1/15.

For the month, F Fund is +.99%, C Fund is -.17%, S Fund is + 1.16% and I Fund is + .16%. So with the exception of the C Fund, we are definately heading higher.

It's times like this that I have to fight the urge to jump back in. When things are rosey, it's easy to get caught up in the moment and I feel like I'm missing out on another rally. But experience has taught me to be patient and to trust my strategy.

I saw your post on being underinvested. I haven't read it yet, but plan to do so today. I'm also interested in how you tweak your exit strategy. Please share when you get it figuired out.

Finally, I hope you can get some rest. We're digging out of 12" of snow this morning so once the driveway is cleared, it's plenty of rest for me.

Bye for now...ravensfan

Oooooouuuwwww... I hear that white stuff is cold!! :cheesy: surprisingly they are saying there is a slight possibility of snow on Friday! So I'm kinda keeping my fingers crossed but just can't imagine it. If we get some I only wish for it for a few hours so I can throw a few snow balls for about half an hour and then pray for it to melt by noon!!

Today i put out the trash... The sun was out and I went out barefooted..no sweater..felt nice and warm with the sun out..like late Spring. I'm fairly certain I could never bring myself to live further north than Austin. It's cold enough as it is here when it gets into the 30s and 40s and if I could avoid going out until March I would not go out at all! :laugh:

P.s. Glad to hear your sticking to strategy...I also am not seeing an entry point yet. Uggh. You know.. At the point that you exited on 12-31 was spot on perfect!! So market is not that much higher at this point and it will likely pull back to at least that level and likely down even lower to 985 since the pattern in S fund has been for it to come down to just slightly above the 50 day EMA before it charges significantly upward. So your doing well to wait patiently. That is what I am waiting for but I wonder if it will keep with that pattern?? Qualifier: Of course this is just my opinion and not financial advice.