DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

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Just keep your sticky pants on and don't worry so much. Nothing bad is going to happen. I do wish Barack Obozo would trip and break his leg to keep him off the golf course and on the job. What a major disappointment in leadership.
 
GrandeBabbo said:
And here you go The Obama Golf Counter - I will not rest until...
Enjoy!
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Humm... I guess the military base golf courses were not affected by sequestration, and there were no barricades on the White House putting green. Guess those cuts were only meant for our Veterans who wanted to see their WWII memorial or the children that wanted to tour the White House. Sorry folks... will try to keep my comments sheltered to the political threads. :)
 
Birchtree said:
Just keep your sticky pants on and don't worry so much. Nothing bad is going to happen. I do wish Barack Obozo would trip and break his leg to keep him off the golf course and on the job. What a major disappointment in leadership.
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Hi Birchtree, Just was thinking maybe its a blessing he plays golf a lot and is not on the job! :)
 
FireWeatherMet said:
Annie, correct me if I'm wrong but I think there is a major contradiction in this argument (from Cavuto I presume).

If China is not such a major buyer of our debt as most assume (buying just slightly more than Japan, whose economy has been stagnant for 2 decades) then a slowdown in China's economy would not have as big of an effect on debt purchase as most previously assumed.

An interesting point in your article link exposes the false claims about social security...by stating that SS currently (and has always) run a surplus, taking in more money than it pays out, and buys Treasuries with that extra $$. Granted this could change in time, and policymakers are looking at a variety of options to fix this (raising retirement age, extending FICA taxes beyond current income cap of just over 100K). A continued improvement in our economy and tax revenue helps more than anything, and we are still fairly early in our recovery, given the slower than normal pace past few years.

I think that Cavuto report was more fright than fact...and we would all do well in the next few years to follow B-tree's path to a degree and stay fully invested, barring some other bubble that appears (or could appear if lowering QE raises interest rates too quick). But on that note, as interest rates rise, won't our treasuries be more appealing to China and foreign investors? For these reasons, I don't think there is anything to fear, at least in the next few decades.

Sometimes we have to look at both sides of the story before coming to a conclusion.
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Hello FWM: Well if Japan's economy is flat, but China's is dropping, I think that could affect what they buy. But then again, interest rates going up on bonds could also cause some to invest more as long as there is confidence that it will be repaid. While I'm sure the US would never default on its debt, I am also certain that the types of cuts that would be required to pay it would be painful for tax payers. However, not so sure anyone would want the higher interest if the underlying value of the dollar has dropped significantly, inflation greatly increases, and taxpayers start to get ugly about it. Yes...I know that the interest rate hike would likely take that into account, but still I have a hard time thinking foreigners want to buy our bonds when our economy and people start to grumble and rumble!

We are definitely still in a long term bull market trend, but that can turn quickly as we learned in 2008 and 2009. Those ugly little bumps really can mess things up. If our credit rating is downgraded again after another debt ceiling increase our market will take a hit--- I should think a 5 to 7% decrease would be likely. The last time this happened (August 7, 2011), markets took a hit the next day. So folks just need to be watchful of that. Gotta keep your eyes on the horizon... :)

P.S. Fitch warned about that in mid October and a company from China actually did downgrad the US from A to A- in mid October.
 
To bail or not---that is the question as usual! So mulling over a few charts. These have "weekly" EMA 10, 20, 50 plus BBs, MACD, and The Stochastics ( slow and fast). Paying more attention to the fast stochastic. Also looking at the 10 weekly average EMA and for crossover below the 20. That has not happened. Earlier I also looked at these same charts but used 5 years and 10 years just for prospective and also looked at monthly EMAs (adjusting charts at left toggling time frames). And also looked at last few months using daily EMAs. To me it looks like S and C are still good and well within the 10weekly EMA average Channel, but fast sto crossing downward for the I fund.

If you change to view past 6 month, daily EMA for more immediate take, looks like S fund fast sto is crossing down. On the C fund fast sto going upward but MACD has crossed to negative territory but have seen other instances where MACD does that and price still goes up. The I fund is closest to 10 daily EMA line and fast sto heading down but has not crossed yet. So it's a toss up! Will make decision tomorrow morning. I am leaning to exit only because I bought in mid December before upward trend so for this transaction stint I am ahead right now even though it would look like a loss in 2014.

S Fund--- weekly EMA
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XX:DWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XX:DWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

C Fund - Weekly EMAs

S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com


I Fund - Weekly EMAs
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, EFA Advanced Chart - (NAR) EFA, iShares MSCI EAFE ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com
 
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Yes.. Looking more at those charts ...daily For six months and with my buy in mid- December, I've done well on this little run in market and I should get out today. Just hate to pull that trigger and lose out on more upside, as this would look like a loss...but it's not and dang it...I just love to play!! :). Will look to see what market is doing in a bit. My strategy does not include staying after the market starts its sideways up and down meander, which always seems to end with a down close to 50EMA. So I should keep emotions out of it and just sell!
 
Wonder if I could be part of that dismal jobs number since I left the workforce today. I am officially retired!!!
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Just shoot me and put me out of my misery! That jobs numbers... darn! I stayed in... will see about it on Monday.
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It shouldn't move things too much. Taper has already started and the Fed won't do more for a few months at least, Unemployment down only because many were dropped from the roles an the holiday over hires were dropped . Bad news might even be good.:rolleyes:
 
Bquat said:
It shouldn't move things too much. Taper has already started and the Fed won't do more for a few months at least, Unemployment down only because many were dropped from the roles an the holiday over hires were dropped . Bad news might even be good.:rolleyes:
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Hi Bquat, Looks like your right on target---bad news is good news! Its moving up... :) Wooo hooo...
 
It's topping so I gotta bail for a bit. Just hoping that today is not the wrong day...I would pull some now and more next day but want to keep an IFT just in case it takes short term drop and I want to get in later. Hope it's steady or goes up...please don't drop!
 
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