DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hope this one touches your hear strings.

http://www.youtube.com/v/8D-OL-KQOt4

TSPR, thanks for sharing that video...now that is truly awesome and yes definitely brings tears to eyes! Our Veterans are true heroes and the most beautiful souls. Thank you to all our Veterans and Merry Christmas and May God bless them throughout the world. They sacrifice so much for us we can never repay them enough.

On a personal note, My Godson fought in Iraq and came home two years ago, and after he came out and was working wanted to re-enlist to help his friends who were still there. He did not at the urging of his mom, but he did work to become a Texas State trooper...another dangerous job protecting others. I look at those young faces in that video and see heroes.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Will likely bail from market today...or at least take 60% off the table today. Market is overextended in all market funds and per my strategy I probably should have bailed on Friday...it's a good 9 or so days into this short term uptrend. Prices hitting upper BBs. Hopefully we have a positive day...thinking to pull some today and more tomorrow. Really would like to start year at least partly invested. Will see.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Darn.. I missed calling in. I guess will hold breath and hope for another chance to bail tomorrow. However, I am really disenchanted with having to mess with this market. Buy and hold or some type of longer term strategy is looking more inviting. Just tired I guess. But ...as Scarlett says, tomorrow is another day!!

 

[ravensfan]

Darn.. I missed calling in. I guess will hold breath and hope for another chance to bail tomorrow. However, I am really disenchanted with having to mess with this market. Buy and hold or some type of longer term strategy is looking more inviting. Just tired I guess. But ...as Scarlett says, tomorrow is another day!!

Annie,

All the signs point to it being time for this little shipper of dreams to head to port. The only question is, should it be done on Tuesday or should we hold out until Friday, hoping to grab a little more profit. My gut tells me that if Tuesday stays positive up through the deadline to head to port and forgo any gains that may be had on Jan 1 & 2. It's times like this that I wish I were a "Magic Man" and not let this thing go "Crazy on You". (Any references to Heart are purely intentional )

P.S. I'll have to change my signature...My Ravens are out

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Annie,

All the signs point to it being time for this little shipper of dreams to head to port. The only question is, should it be done on Tuesday or should we hold out until Friday, hoping to grab a little more profit. My gut tells me that if Tuesday stays positive up through the deadline to head to port and forgo any gains that may be had on Jan 1 & 2. It's times like this that I wish I were a "Magic Man" and not let this thing go "Crazy on You". (Any references to Heart are purely intentional )

P.S. I'll have to change my signature...My Ravens are out

Hi Ravensfan, I must agree..tis time to sail away! :nuts: I'd rather pull out a little early..unfortunately I don't have a crystal ball or "magic" to know what is to come, but I do expect at least a small pull back...or at least that is what current charts are indicating could be possible. Heart comments appreciated I was looking at January historical returns and noticed its a mixed bag. Some are very good and in other years the returns are very negative. So not sure, but I will proceed with caution and stick to strategy.

Oh ...too bad about the Ravens. ....I think my team (Cowboys) are out as well.. But I really like the Patriots, so I'm still watching a couple games each weekend. I understand the Broncos and Seahawks now have best odds for Super Bowl. Will see...

 

[wvango]

DBA,

What do you think about the I Fund?

 

[Frixxxx]

DBA,

What do you think about the I Fund?

She likes the Patriots, so I wouldn't trust her thoughts on the I Fund! :toung:

 

[Birchtree]

"And despite worries about the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, turmoil in the Middle East and a federal government shutdown, U.S. stocks suffered only small and short-lived pullbacks. There were just five selloffs of 2% or more for the S&P 500 this year, the worst being a 5.8% decline from May 21 through June 24 amid fears the Fed soon would start reducing stimulus." All the sales many made this year have been mistakes - 2014 might not be any different. It's like 1995 equating to 2013 and 1996 equating to 2014.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

"And despite worries about the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, turmoil in the Middle East and a federal government shutdown, U.S. stocks suffered only small and short-lived pullbacks. There were just five selloffs of 2% or more for the S&P 500 this year, the worst being a 5.8% decline from May 21 through June 24 amid fears the Fed soon would start reducing stimulus." All the sales many made this year have been mistakes - 2014 might not be any different. It's like 1995 equating to 2013 and 1996 equating to 2014.

Hi Birchtree. I love your positive outlook and you are right. With a buy and hold (BNH) strategy there is no arguing that S fund (or even C fund) is the way to go. Markets all the way. G fund is a temporary spot to hold money (making nothing) when you are between trades, etc. I am looking to go back to BNH strategy because it is the only way to really make money.....but It is just a killer to the bottom line when a 2008 occurs. would like to avoid that. I am still playing with the trying to learn how to ride only the waves up to see if I could beat a BNH stragegy but it looks like its too hard. I promised myself to try for one year and that time is up in May 2014 so will see if I can hold up until then.

Today, saw Coolhands thread where he gave a link to chart he likes to review for liquidity--it is very high right now. He has spoken about liquidity before and it is a HUGE factor. So for that reason I am going to STAY in the market today and reconsider everything and whether to move out by Friday. Another great tool--thanks CH!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

DBA,

What do you think about the I Fund?

Hi WVango, I fund is still looking to have upward momentum per the bollinger bands... and I think it has more of a chance at upward because it was the last of the S, C and I to go upward...so has a little more to go. The chart Coolhand posted also shows lots of liquidity and that is good for market pricing.

Personally, I've never trusted much in the I fund... in my mind it is contrary to S and C (US=American) funds...when dollar is high, I is low... when dollar goes down, the I goes up.... of course that is a very general view overall... guess that I see it as a hedge to invest in all 3 at the same time. I would either bet all on S/C or go I but not both. one or the other will go up and I would like to be either all wrong or all right to get full gains... but then again...this year all 3 market funds are going up and often at the same time ...so my view is no holding true this year... then again lots of things are not holding up. What is good, causing market to go down. What is bad, causing market to go up (due to the QE), etc.

Of course, please do not listen to me at all! My judgment is definitely off...as Frxxxx said...I am a Patriots fan and we know you can't trust that! :toung:

 

[ravensfan]

Hi Ravensfan, I must agree..tis time to sail away! :nuts: I'd rather pull out a little early..unfortunately I don't have a crystal ball or "magic" to know what is to come, but I do expect at least a small pull back...or at least that is what current charts are indicating could be possible. Heart comments appreciated I was looking at January historical returns and noticed its a mixed bag. Some are very good and in other years the returns are very negative. So not sure, but I will proceed with caution and stick to strategy.

I'm in port. I saw your comments on Coolhand's Account and wish you all the best with your decision to stay in. I bailed because I decided to have faith in my system and trust what it is telling me. I may end up regreting my decision but how many times have we read of people on this forum, losing out because they didn't stick to their system. So with that said, I will take my great returns for December and wait for my system to tell me it's time to jump back in.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I'm in port. I saw your comments on Coolhand's Account and wish you all the best with your decision to stay in. I bailed because I decided to have faith in my system and trust what it is telling me. I may end up regreting my decision but how many times have we read of people on this forum, losing out because they didn't stick to their system. So with that said, I will take my great returns for December and wait for my system to tell me it's time to jump back in.

Hi Ravensfan, thanks for all your support and congrats on your gains!! . High Liquidity is the only thing that tipped it for me today, and believe that if it holds up I will incorporate it permanently into my strategy...but we will see... I am really thinking about current strategy of timing market...just so hard...just not sure of how long I can continue with it.

It's good that you are sticking with your strategy and sticking to your guns...makes me want to stick with my strategy. The three times I stuck with my strategy This year, I have had really good gains but so much time lapses between buys its hard to sit on sidelines. Thanks for your encouragement and your perseverance is uplifting ...really!! You set a good example!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Happy New Year to everyone! Wishing you good health, prosperity, blessings and monster trades in 2014!

 

[coolhand]

Happy New Year to everyone! Wishing you good health, prosperity, blessings and monster trades in 2014!

Same to you DreamboatAnnie!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Decision made...staying in and will see what happens next week...if it doesn't pull out of this little drop by mid next week, and there are strong indications of bigger drops to come, will likely pull out. But not today. Was looking at 15 minute charts and thinking bout how this market always tends to meander after large increase..I think it will go up again next week and then might drop again. Will pull out at that time...probably?? Hummm.

 

[coolhand]

Decision made...staying in and will see what happens next week...if it doesn't pull out of this little drop by mid next week, and there are strong indications of bigger drops to come, will likely pull out. But not today. Was looking at 15 minute charts and thinking bout how this market always tends to meander after large increase..I think it will go up again next week and then might drop again. Will pull out at that time...probably?? Hummm.

We could see some volatile action this month with the possibility of a downside bias. It's speculation, but with the transition to a New Year often comes a change in character. Still too early to really know. Sentiment won't take long to get beared up on a drop of 2.5% or more. At least that's what I'm thinking. Big picture to me is that the Fed does not want to create too much stress in the markets even as they really need to moderate expectations now that the market in general is fairly valued. "Fairly valued" is key in my opinion. If they want to instill confidence back into this market (one that does not require liquidity to function) they will need to keep things on a relatively even keel as they try to extract themselves (tapering, QE). This will take some time to play out still.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Market dropping this morning for all funds so decision is to stay in. While I could exit and still make a profit on this latest stint into market, decided to stay in with hope that a few days this week will turn upward and then will exit. Of course tracker would still record it as loss since this transaction is bridging calendar year tracking.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

So I was watching Cavuto tonight, and he was talking about China's growth slowing. Some think it is close to a point of possible strikes coming. Got me to thinking who would be buying our debt if they can't afford to. Then saw this article on web about who owns our $17 trillion debt.......Interesting. So the biggest losers would be social security and Federal employee pensions including military. China only owns a little more than $1 trillion followed by Japan at a trillion.

Who Owns Most of the US National Debt

But back to China. If China is doing so poorly, why do they continue to buy our debt? The article claims this is because they want to keep our dollar high in comparison to their money. So it makes their exports to us look more affordable and the high exports help their economy. So their motivated debt buyers. But what if their economy got so bad that they could no longer afford to buy our debt? If we had problems selling more debt to enable us to keep floating the interest on the debt then at some point things would get really ugly...

Then again, maybe it will come quicker..what if we fail to address debt ceiling or just do nothing substantive to reduce debt.? Could our rating be dropped again anytime soon? If that happens, it would start a major drop in market. Just thinking out loud...eeeeeekkk! But hey...that market was great today!! Good call Birchtree!

GN. There are lots of other interesting articles at that site.....

 

[Cactus]

That is scarey that half the debt is in retirement funds of one type or another. That means that when us baby-boomers retire in mass all that money will be coming out and collapsing that house for cards. OK, not ALL, but a big chunk anyways.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

That is scarey that half the debt is in retirement funds of one type or another. That means that when us baby-boomers retire in mass all that money will be coming out and collapsing that house for cards. OK, not ALL, but a big chunk anyways.

Yes... I was thinking the same thing... its a house of cards... a ponzi scheme. We're screxxxwed!!!

But it could fall sooner and likely will to some extent. I mean really. If we do not start taking action to reduce the debt, could our rating go down and couldn't that in and of itself start a domino effect... or for that matter China crashing??? At some point, with our economies being more globally interdependent, something is going to bring down the house of cards... or at least that is what I am thinking. Maybe Gold isn't such a bad investment.. either that or some backwoods property with small river/stream plenty of guns/rifles, ammo,dry goods, etc .:nuts: