DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

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Annie, ive been following you and your charting and really appreciate your thoughts and ideas, im a newbie and have been trying to learn as much as possible to the ups and downs of this "game" we are in. The slow stochastic that you have been following is very interesting, and has been bouncing off the 15-20 mark very successfully, I will wait and see if it gets back near the 20 ish mark before the fed meeting next week, that might be the bounce we need heading into the new year. Thanks again for your insight....


i agree. Yes I saw that Coolhand jumped in earlier this week. Made me want to leap but I am really trying to stick to set strategy though I definitely realize I need to be a little flexible. I was too busy this morning and missed deadline, so I'm going to call it in later this afternoon so it's set for tomorrow. Right now thinking 60 % S fund and 20 % C. Keeping 20 % in G...just still not confident enough to go all in...not sure I'll ever get over that hideous 2008-2009 market drop. Of course, percentages may change depending on those end of day charts.


oh...just looked at I fund.. That might go lower..I might buy some of that but think it may go down further ...It hit lower Bollinger band yesterday and bands expanding outward which means it will be exploding ...but which way?? It could go down a lot more, then again it could go down and then jump up. I am going to wait and see what it does today but would like to see upward price action before I buy some. I really do not like I fund much because S and C always seem to do better except at this time of year. Humm....
See what price did end of August and beginning of September...hit lower B and then started going up with large upward trend..for about 10 days before it started the sideways meandering. I'd like to see it get back up to 50 day EMA and buy for a short sharp ride up. This appears very close to ripe!iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, EFA Advanced Chart - (NAR) EFA, iShares MSCI EAFE ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com[/QUOTE]
 
Thanks Skycophigh! Hope it helps some..:)Okay..so I'm happily rolling along and then I saw James' post on P&F charting...which I'm not familiar with but made me think more. He talked about double bottom..didn't sound good. I'll need to study that more. In any case, started looking at S fund chart more intently and while it hit most big item criteria for me, the one thing left is to see positive action to be sure it is at the bottom...so I may wait til Monday....ugh . So I'll be making a last minute decision tomorrow morning thinking about it. Jumping in too early if it hasn't hit bottom is lost money! Really do not want to wait but it would be safest thing to do, and if it goes up monday, it will be another ugghhh.. I may just have to bite bullet!! I'm just not decisive enough. My gut says buy but only go in 50% S Fund and then if it starts to move positive move in more. The I fund really looks good...but again would like to see the directioN.
 
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ravensfan said:
So I got my IFT (2nd for Dec) in before the deadline today. I went with 25% G (I have a tough time going all in too), 35% G, 25% S and 15% I. I was a little worried about the C Fund, but the S&P closed down 6.72 so that will push it a little closer to the 50 day EMA. We may still have a little room to fall, but then you get into chasing pennies and I've been beat up to many times doing that. So I feel good about my positions, made my choices based on a set criteria, so we will see what happens.

Thanks again for all your help and Good Luck!!! when you get back in the game.:)
Click to expand...
hi Ravensfan.. That is a good spread!! Good to see you followed your set criteria...that is hard to do...I try to stick with mine and it is tough. Yes C fund is a little worrisome because it hasn't Come down as much as the others. Need to keep reminding myself this is still a raging bull...snort as BT says! :D
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Thanks Skycophigh! Hope it helps some..:)Okay..so I'm happily rolling along and then I saw James' post on P&F charting...which I'm not familiar with but made me think more. He talked about double bottom..didn't sound good. I'll need to study that more. In any case, started looking at S fund chart more intently and while it hit most big item criteria for me, the one thing left is to see positive action to be sure it is at the bottom...so I may wait til Monday....ugh . So I'll be making a last minute decision tomorrow morning thinking about it. Jumping in too early if it hasn't hit bottom is lost money! Really do not want to wait but it would be safest thing to do, and if it goes up monday, it will be another ugghhh.. I may just have to bite bullet!! I'm just not decisive enough. My gut says buy but only go in 50% S Fund and then if it starts to move positive move in more. The I fund really looks good...but again would like to see the directioN.
Click to expand...
what are the charts saying today dreamboat???? i would love to know your thought today, cheers...
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
hi Ravensfan.. That is a good spread!! Good to see you followed your set criteria...that is hard to do...I try to stick with mine and it is tough. Yes C fund is a little worrisome because it hasn't Come down as much as the others. Need to keep reminding myself this is still a raging bull...snort as BT says! :D
Click to expand...

Hey Annie,

Just wanted to let you know that I finished in the black today thanks to the S Fund. It wasn't much, but hey it's a start. I was updating my charts this evening and thought I'd share an interesting fact with you. I created this chart to help me better understand RSI, concentrating on cumulative percentage gains and losses over the past 60 and 15 trading days. Did you know that over the past 15 days the F, C, S and I Funds have all had losses? My chart is as follows:


[TABLE="width: 493"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 213, bgcolor: #00B0F0"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, width: 85, bgcolor: #00B0F0"] G Fund[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, width: 87, bgcolor: #00B0F0"] F Fund[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, width: 89, bgcolor: #00B0F0"] C Fund[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, width: 84, bgcolor: #00B0F0"] S Fund[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, width: 98, bgcolor: #00B0F0"] I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, width: 213, bgcolor: transparent"]15 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, width: 85, bgcolor: transparent"] 0.18%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, width: 87, bgcolor: transparent"] -0.13%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, width: 89, bgcolor: transparent"] -0.97%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, width: 84, bgcolor: transparent"] -0.47%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, width: 98, bgcolor: transparent"] -2.51%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70, width: 213, bgcolor: transparent"]60 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, width: 85, bgcolor: transparent"] 0.74%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, width: 87, bgcolor: transparent"] 1.57%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, width: 89, bgcolor: transparent"] 5.11%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, width: 84, bgcolor: transparent"] 5.15%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, width: 98, bgcolor: transparent"] 2.36%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Just thought I'd share. Hope you have a great weekend.
 
ravensfan said:
Hey Annie,

Just wanted to let you know that I finished in the black today thanks to the S Fund. It wasn't much, but hey it's a start. I was updating my charts this evening and thought I'd share an interesting fact with you. I created this chart to help me better understand RSI, concentrating on cumulative percentage gains and losses over the past 60 and 15 trading days. Did you know that over the past 15 days the F, C, S and I Funds have all had losses? My chart is as follows:


[TABLE="width: 493"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 213, bgcolor: #00B0F0"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, width: 85, bgcolor: #00B0F0"] G Fund[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, width: 87, bgcolor: #00B0F0"] F Fund[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, width: 89, bgcolor: #00B0F0"] C Fund[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, width: 84, bgcolor: #00B0F0"] S Fund[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, width: 98, bgcolor: #00B0F0"] I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, width: 213, bgcolor: transparent"]15 DAYTOTAL[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, width: 85, bgcolor: transparent"] 0.18%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, width: 87, bgcolor: transparent"] -0.13%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, width: 89, bgcolor: transparent"] -0.97%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, width: 84, bgcolor: transparent"] -0.47%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, width: 98, bgcolor: transparent"] -2.51%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70, width: 213, bgcolor: transparent"]60 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, width: 85, bgcolor: transparent"] 0.74%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, width: 87, bgcolor: transparent"] 1.57%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, width: 89, bgcolor: transparent"] 5.11%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, width: 84, bgcolor: transparent"] 5.15%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, width: 98, bgcolor: transparent"] 2.36%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Just thought I'd share. Hope you have a great weekend.
Click to expand...

Hi Ravensfan, Thanks for info..very helpful. I think this is very interesting because it keeps your eye on the ball! I have just been looking at trying to ride the short term market waves up and exiting when MACD and Slow Stochastic and RSI are topping. Then waiting for the next wave up to develop.

Right now I am at about the 45 day mark as far as last exit, so I'll probably take a look at actual TSP pricing today in comparison to OCT 25, to compute the increase or decrease since then. Then decide on Monday what to do. Again thanks for info...all that up and down n it's a net loss for last 3 weeks. Wow!!

hope you have a great weekend too! :D
 
skycophigh said:
what are the charts saying today dreamboat???? i would love to know your thought today, cheers...
Click to expand...
Hi Skycophigh, I could not post before deadline yesterday. I did not enter market. I wanted confirmation for positive price action. This morning I looked at Friday's closing prices, I definitely will buy S Fund on Monday...50 %. Regarding C still a tad too high; and I fund looks like it will go down further.

I like your name...sounds like your a U.S. Marshall flying incognito for airway safety.:rolleyes:
 
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Ok. Looked at charts in my last post.

C fund - Bollinger bands look like they want to expand..price is along bottom band so looks like price may move down more. Also noticing that price has not moved down to 50 EMA so to me that looks like it could go down more. To confirm a bottom, would like to see a bounce upward to at least 1780 or 1785 before buying in for that fund. MACD is in negative territory and Slow stochastic is very low ( both good for buy signal). I've gotta wait until Monday close to decide on buying C.

S fund - BB is flat, no outward expansion..so No idea where it's going. MACD is negative and Slow Stochastic at 15 (meet my buy criteria). Last two days show slight positive price action but not very decisive. Looking at entire pattern for past couple months, looks like the stair step upward momentum is getting shorter and shorter...that is kinda worrisome because it looks like bull momentum is slowing. Also looks like mini stair step up did not get as high as prior one. So looks like trend maybe getting ready to change downward....But the lowest low in last three days was not as low as the prior low, week or so ago, so when I consider that, the two conditions cancel out so that it does not clearly indicate a downtrend. This is definitely NOT what I want to see. I should wait another day or two to buy, but I want to enter S fund because I still think it will go up and I do not believe that the Fed will start tapering or announce a tapering at their meeting this week. So right now I plan to buy in 50% unless I see a large drop tomorrow morning before I call it in, or if my gut screams no. Still think this buy is risky ..almost hoping it drops to make my choice clear tomorrow morning. Still thinking about seasonality..will the XMAS effect occur this year?

I fund - BBands expanding and price riding on lower band. Definitely looks like it will continue to move downward, so I will not buy it. However maybe after another 4 or 5 trading days it may bounce back up and once it shows that upward price movement, it would be good to buy. MACD in negative territory and Slow stochastic around 15 ( so low enough to meet that buy criteria) it's just that not sure it's bottomed out yet. So I'll wait.

please note I am not a financial advisor and my comments are not to be considered trading advice as this is just me making comments about my thoughts and my personal strategy.
 
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Ok. I've read some posts including BQuat's. It's a roller coaster. But I'm going to jump on it... Going in 50% S fund. Will wait on C and I funds. If it sinks, will stay long. :D
 
Okay. Decided to move all in... yesterday went from G to 50/50 S and G. Today moving the other 50 from G to S and C. 75%S / 25%C. Prices moving down more and believe it all is going up.
 
ravensfan said:
Up up and away, in my beautiful, my beautiful ballooooooon:D...
Click to expand...
Wooo Hooooo....yes it's a beautiful ride up!. Great increase today! So glad I moved in Monday and Tuesday! Getting a chunk on 100%. It's been almost a year since I was last in market at 100%. Now just hoping it stays positive. Now will start watching for an exit. My strategy has been 10 to12 business days but I also am considering that historical info indicates prices will often increase through first couple weeks of January . I believe someone also commented that a bad start can indicates a not so great year coming as a whole.

in any case, my EXIT strategy is to watch daily price action, candle stick pattern, watch for RSI and MACD and Slow Stochastic to rise and then begin downward movement. Kinda look at Slow Stochastic to rise to up around 90, then start looking at MACD to look like it's bowing up and starting to come down and nearing the point of crossing the x line to start going negative (important exit indicator), also keep eyes on Bollinger Bands to see if price pierces the upper Bollinger band line (although this does not in and of itself always indicate a top as it can bump up along that upper band for many days..like 23, but I usually get antsy after two bumps, and then count number of days in upward trend, and start counting days..I get antsy after 12 days. If price falls below 10 day EMA channel, my strategy is to get out unless I think it is tied to a fluke/ political dumb comment with no real/long term effect. If that is not the case, then my plan us to look at that strategy that Mr John Ross mentioned in his account talk.

I'll just refer to it as the 10/50 Weekly EMA cross over. It was effective in identifying the free fall that occurred in 2008 before the assize fall occurred!! This indicator involves setting chart to look at WEEKLY average of the EMA and if I am recalling correctly, you must set it to look at 10, 20, and 50 weekly EMA Average lines and look to see when the 10 weekly EMA crosses below the 50. When that happens it is time to bail in my strategy. Actually when the 10 crosses below 20 is also a good indicator of further falls coming ..that is the weekly EMA. My understanding is that the weekly lets us better see the trend that can get lost in daily price action.

Chart links, dated in my 12-15-2013 post #232, can easily be modified to view this indicator. Just click on that link and at left where it says DAILY, just change it to say WEEKLY, and hit Draw Chart. Lines are colored and defined. Change the 6 months to several years or even a decade to see what happened in 2008 and 2009. Of course I would put the BB, MACdD and RSI to none to get rid of having so many lines on the chart!
 
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Yesterday, Birchtree said the following in his post #16487:
Birchtree said:
"If stocks aren't rising at the end of December, and if they aren't rising at the start of January, something is wrong. If the market doesn't follow the typical pattern it would be a signal that an underlying problem exists." "If the market doesn't do well in the first two weeks of January it is usually a bearish indicator for the year."
Click to expand...
. This is Good information I am considering for the year and for an exit on current buy in.
 
Sounds like a good exit strategy. You and I were fairly close on timing our entrances back into the market, so we'll see how the exits go. Cudos to you for staying away from the I Fund. I jumped in to early, not waiting for price to turn back up and even though today was a great day, I'm still behind on the I Fund. Lesson learned.

Also, I liked the post from BT. That's definately something to keep an eye on. I'm hoping this ride up stays positive at least through the end of January, but hey I'll take the middle.
 
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