DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

I keep the quad fifty parked out back to deal with any unwelcomed drive byes - that usually does the trick.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Looks like the train is approaching the station... Law87 mentioned 1725, anyone up for calling a bottom?

That's over a 4% pullback. Don't think you will see that any time soon in my humble opinion.

 

[Birchtree]

We may be standing on the current bottom at 1799 - I'm doing a little buying today.

 

[JimmyJoe]

Looks like the train is approaching the station... Law87 mentioned 1725, anyone up for calling a bottom?

The train is too big and moving upward as we speak. We're moving into the biggest month of the year for stocks. Maybe 1780 but that's just to cover my bets. Some choppiness the first part of the month but I think we're near or at the bottom right now and will hit 1870 by the end of the year. Quite possibly, 1900. Generally we're moving up.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I hope you all are right......it's noontime and while DOW starting going up it's now at minus 106... Wish I had gone in today..but will look at jumping on tomorrow. I must agree..not too confident that it will come down much more. FedEx kicked butt yesterday and transports are moving slight up and meandering sideways..as of last night. Soooo...it's looking good..now to figure out how much to go in. I've been very conservative all year...should really go all in but it's hard to say it! 100%. :worried:..ok maybe 80% :cheesy:. Don't say it Birch..I already know your shaking your head.

 

[Longstreet]

I hope you all are right......it's noontime and while DOW starting going up it's now at minus 106... Wish I had gone in today..but will look at jumping on tomorrow. I must agree..not too confident that it will come down much more. FedEx kicked butt yesterday and transports are moving slight up and meandering sideways..as of last night. Soooo...it's looking good..now to figure out how much to go in. I've been very conservative all year...should really go all in but it's hard to say it! 100%. :worried:..ok maybe 80% :cheesy:. Don't say it Birch..I already know your shaking your head.

I'm confused on having a 100% allocation in "G" and wanting to jump in on a rather small pullback? If you are allocated in such a way, does that not imply some rational thought that the market is overheated in a rather large way? Would it still not overheated even after this modest pullback? If you are willing to put money in now, would you not be better served to already have a decent portion already in? I do know there is a pyschological element to having a big position in G and seeing the market go up and up while you are sitting out. However, I'm having a hard time understanding how such a strong defensive position can be changed by such a modest pullback? It seems counterintuitive because in my mind, if you are 100% G, you should let the market come back to you after 2 miles, not 20 feet. Of course, I hope you do well!!!!!

 

[burrocrat]

you've got the range part figured out but calculating distance is a problem. i've been waiting since january for it to come back even a 1/4 mile. all that sucker does is pause and wave, then it just keeps on running. 3% vs 30% is my result. but i'm not gonna chase. it'll stumble eventually. then i'm going to take it.

I'm confused on having a 100% allocation in "G" and wanting to jump in on a rather small pullback? If you are allocated in such a way, does that not imply some rational thought that the market is overheated in a rather large way? Would it still not overheated even after this modest pullback? If you are willing to put money in now, would you not be better served to already have a decent portion already in? I do know there is a pyschological element to having a big position in G and seeing the market go up and up while you are sitting out. However, I'm having a hard time understanding how such a strong defensive position can be changed by such a modest pullback? It seems counterintuitive because in my mind, if you are 100% G, you should let the market come back to you after 2 miles, not 20 feet. Of course, I hope you do well!!!!!

 

[jkenjohnson]

Looks like S&P bounced off of 1788. Maybe a support level?

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I'm confused on having a 100% allocation in "G" and wanting to jump in on a rather small pullback? If you are allocated in such a way, does that not imply some rational thought that the market is overheated in a rather large way? Would it still not overheated even after this modest pullback? If you are willing to put money in now, would you not be better served to already have a decent portion already in? I do know there is a pyschological element to having a big position in G and seeing the market go up and up while you are sitting out. However, I'm having a hard time understanding how such a strong defensive position can be changed by such a modest pullback? It seems counterintuitive because in my mind, if you are 100% G, you should let the market come back to you after 2 miles, not 20 feet. Of course, I hope you do well!!!!!

Nope I'm not jumping in yet. I just reviewed the end of day charts and it is too slight a pull back but at least it's going in a direction that eventually may let me jump in. My current strategy only leaves me in market for about 12-15 business days..just try to catch the steep little wave moving upward in price and getting out before it meanders and corrects. Been developing this strategy since May and have really only solidified it and executed it once or twice now.

My strategy for jumping in is for MACD to be in negative territory but more importantly that the slow stochastic drop down to under 20 and also prices to go down enough ..preferably to a 50 SMA and at least bounce off lower Bollinger Band. I Like to get in just before BBs start to expand. So far that specific criteria has not happened in November...but today was a step in that direction. So I am still unhappily waiting... I guess reason for saying I might jump in is just due to frustration and thought it might not pull back enough to meet my entry criteria, and like others, I think market is going higher. I'm anxious to get a piece of it.

Also think market going up because Fedex earnings indicate people are buying stuff and that is good for the businesses whose items are being shipped and transport are in slight but steady upward trend. That all may indicate more good earning reports and market going up...so again this might be as good as it gets ( ie the current day price drop). So, I a continue to evaluate to see if I need to modify the strategy. I'm giving myself until May before I go back to a buy and hold long term strategy. If I make enough then I will keep using my adapting strategy. So far I have only invested 50%of my money and looking to get more invested in strategy during my trial year.

Then again just read tons of articles thinking the market will crash. So there is plenty out there to burst my bubble.

 

[ravensfan]

See, this is where you panic and jump in because you are afraid you will miss a rally. Then after a few days, the market turns negative again, and you panic and jump out, trying to conserve capital. Then the smart money jumps in and rides the wave to new highs. Meanwhile you're back in the G Fund and out of IFT's for the month.

Stick to your guns Annie!!! Your system is there for a reason.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Nope I'm not jumping in yet. I just reviewed the end of day charts and it is too slight a pull back but at least it's going in a direction that eventually may let me jump in. My current strategy only leaves me in market for about 12-15 business days..just try to catch the steep little wave moving upward in price and getting out before it meanders and corrects. Been developing this strategy since May and have really only solidified it and executed it once or twice now.

My strategy for jumping in is for MACD to be in negative territory but more importantly that the slow stochastic drop down to under 20 and also prices to go down enough ..preferably to a 50 SMA and at least bounce off lower Bollinger Band. I Like to get in just before BBs start to expand. So far that specific criteria has not happened in November...but today was a step in that direction. So I am still unhappily waiting... I guess reason for saying I might jump in is just due to frustration and thought it might not pull back enough to meet my entry criteria, and like others, I think market is going higher. I'm anxious to get a piece of it.

Also think market going up because Fedex earnings indicate people are buying stuff and that is good for the businesses whose items are being shipped and transport are in slight but steady upward trend. That all may indicate more good earning reports and market going up...so again this might be as good as it gets ( ie the current day price drop). So, I a continue to evaluate to see if I need to modify the strategy. I'm giving myself until May before I go back to a buy and hold long term strategy. If I make enough then I will keep using my adapting strategy. So far I have only invested 50%of my money and looking to get more invested in strategy during my trial year.

Then again just read tons of articles thinking the market will crash. So there is plenty out there to burst my bubble.

Just curious - you said you executed it once or twice. Do you remember your gains?

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Just curious - you said you executed it once or twice. Do you remember your gains?

I think the first time was a little more than 1% but do not think I had a good exit strategy..jumped out too soon. The second time I stuck with entry and exit strategy and it was about 4.5%. I've got to go back and figure the actuals..since I have typically just been using 50 % of my money very conservative. Once I get more confident of the strategy will gamble with a little more of my piggy. My gains this year so far are tiny but I was out of market for first 5 months. I'm trying to stick with current strategy but it's hard. I think it could work long term but in this bull market I just don't know... Buy and holders doing awesome!

 

[ravensfan]

I think the first time was a little more than 1% but do not think I had a good exit strategy..jumped out too soon. The second time I stuck with entry and exit strategy and it was about 4.5%. I've got to go back and figure the actuals..since I have typically just been using 50 % of my money very conservative. Once I get more confident of the strategy will gamble with a little more of my piggy. My gains this year so far are tiny but I was out of market for first 5 months. I'm trying to stick with current strategy but it's hard. I think it could work long term but in this bull market I just don't know... Buy and holders doing awesome!

DBA,

Check out Coolhand's mid-week report on his premium site this morning. It should help to remain patient.

 

[jkenjohnson]

I think the first time was a little more than 1% but do not think I had a good exit strategy..jumped out too soon. The second time I stuck with entry and exit strategy and it was about 4.5%. I've got to go back and figure the actuals..since I have typically just been using 50 % of my money very conservative. Once I get more confident of the strategy will gamble with a little more of my piggy. My gains this year so far are tiny but I was out of market for first 5 months. I'm trying to stick with current strategy but it's hard. I think it could work long term but in this bull market I just don't know... Buy and holders doing awesome!

Keep us updated please. Myself, as well as others, are always interested in new systems. None are perfect but it sure would be nice to find one that would give 25% per year consistently. That is what I am looking for. It is probably unreasonable, but several people on this site make that much or more every year. I wish they would share their secrets. So far I'm only 15% for the year but maybe I can pick up 8% by January (not likely).

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi JKJ. Yes, I'll keep posting updates. You know we could just bet on who is gonna make the most in the following year based on who has the best historical earnings on the auto tracker. Then we just do IFTs every time they do. We would watch the recent transfers everyday ..You know.. Kinda like the last month best method..except this would be the "follow the leader method" (FTLM) !!

 

[ravensfan]

Hi JKJ. Yes, I'll keep posting updates. You know we could just bet on who is gonna make the most in the following year based on who has the best historical earnings on the auto tracker. Then we just do IFTs every time they do. We would watch the recent transfers everyday ..You know.. Kinda like the last month best method..except this would be the "follow the leader method" (FTLM) !!

DBA,

That strategy has crossed my mind more than a few times...

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Ok so today is now finally getting close to meeting all my criteria to enter market. DWCPF is now right near the 50 day EMA, MACD in negative territory, RSI below/ at 50, but slow stochastic is just a little too high..need another day or two of downward action to get below 30 ... But as has been the case , maybe this as good an entry point as it gets. I want to go in tomorrow or Friday depending on that price action...believe seasonality also indicates next couple days are lowest in month. Plus price is much lower now than what it was when I exited back on October. 25.

S Fund
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=XX%3ADWCPF&time=7&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=5%2F11%2F2013&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=6&maval=10%2C20%2C50&uf=8&lf=4&lf2=32&lf3=2&type=4&style=370&size=4&x=67&y=1&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11

C Fund ... Price still too high. It's a bit higher today than what I sold it at on October 25.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ad...sToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11

 

[ravensfan]

Ok so today is now finally getting close to meeting all my criteria to enter market.

DBA,

I agree with your analysis of the market. I grabbed a little I Fund earlier this week based on the same signals. Should have waited though as I took it on the chin yesterday. But who saw that coming. I'll be grabbing some C and S Fund this morning for the Santa Claus surge. A little tough to call today, tomorrow or wait until next week, but have to go with Coolhand on this one that any downturn will be short lived.

All the Best to You
Ravensfan

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Ok so today is now finally getting close to meeting all my criteria to enter market.


DBA,


I agree with your analysis of the market. I grabbed a little I Fund earlier this week based on the same signals. Should have waited though as I took it on the chin yesterday. But who saw that coming. I'll be grabbing some C and S Fund this morning for the Santa Claus surge. A little tough to call today, tomorrow or wait until next week, but have to go with Coolhand on this one that any downturn will be short lived.


All the Best to You
Ravensfan

i agree. Yes I saw that Coolhand jumped in earlier this week. Made me want to leap but I am really trying to stick to set strategy though I definitely realize I need to be a little flexible. I was too busy this morning and missed deadline, so I'm going to call it in later this afternoon so it's set for tomorrow. Right now thinking 60 % S fund and 20 % C. Keeping 20 % in G...just still not confident enough to go all in...not sure I'll ever get over that hideous 2008-2009 market drop. Of course, percentages may change depending on those end of day charts.


oh...just looked at I fund.. That might go lower..I might buy some of that but think it may go down further ...It hit lower Bollinger band yesterday and bands expanding outward which means it will be exploding ...but which way?? It could go down a lot more, then again it could go down and then jump up. I am going to wait and see what it does today but would like to see upward price action before I buy some. I really do not like I fund much because S and C always seem to do better except at this time of year. Humm....
See what price did end of August and beginning of September...hit lower B and then started going up with large upward trend..for about 10 days before it started the sideways meandering. I'd like to see it get back up to 50 day EMA and buy for a short sharp ride up. This appears very close to ripe!

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Fund&symb=XX%3AEFA&time=7&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=6%2F20%2F2013&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=6&maval=10%2C20%2C50&uf=8&lf=4&lf2=32&lf3=2&type=4&style=370&size=4&x=57&y=9&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11

 

[ravensfan]

So I got my IFT (2nd for Dec) in before the deadline today. I went with 25% G (I have a tough time going all in too), 35% G, 25% S and 15% I. I was a little worried about the C Fund, but the S&P closed down 6.72 so that will push it a little closer to the 50 day EMA. We may still have a little room to fall, but then you get into chasing pennies and I've been beat up to many times doing that. So I feel good about my positions, made my choices based on a set criteria, so we will see what happens.

Thanks again for all your help and Good Luck!!! when you get back in the game.