DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

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Handballer said:
Wish I was as smart as you. I could of saved meself from losing a 1.5 percent this week.:mad::o Glad to be out of October!
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Gosh..did it drop that much! I'm glad to be out of October too! There is also lots of luck involved ..indicators say a lot but I think in the end there are just so many factors and outside influences and world and political events that can affect the closing price that anything can happen after we decide to get in, or get out, or do nothing! So don't be tough on self. Plus we are very limited...hands are really tied with having to make decisions at start of day and not being able to react to buy or sell anytime during rest of day like other non-tspers. We are at a GREAT disadvantage and it really sucks!! I saw prices go up on Tuesday and shook my head saying to self, "why the heck did I get out" ...so it can go anyway. But overall trend is to go up.....but I'm thinking there could be a drop within next few weeks and that is what I'm waiting for to get back in....not sure if I should have gotten in today cuz haven't even had time to look at how market did... Good luck to you!

P.S. I try to post as soon as I decide to make a move but as you can see from the time of my posts, most of the time it is a last minute decision just before the cutoff trying to figure out what to do when it's a close call...really wish we were not hamstringed like that. I do like to share move info but just to let others know thinking..not because I know anything...believe me this year has been a huge learning experience. ...I have six more months to convince myself that I can time market well enough to play..as opposed to buy n hold strategy. Will know soon enough.
 
I was just really looking at this chart for the C fund and looking at this beautiful stair step pattern... Notice how as soon as price falls below 50 day EMA price is at low point (late June, late August, first week in October) MACD is already crossed to negative/downward.( blue line under red), and the Slow Stochastic is around 15, Price is kissing lower Bollinger band, which is a good buying opportunity. Then as it starts to bounce away from lower band ( buy signal but gotta be careful to make sure really going up) Price starts to go up and eventually the Bollinger band begins to open up and price starts to move up and there is usually a sharp upswing in price, but the upswing usually lasts between 10 to 15 days or so ( my time /tell to sell) ..then it starts it's downward movement again but zigs and zags for a time (MACD starts to go negative) until it fully drops back below 50 EMA, then it starts again. I know that is not always the case but it's getting predictable right now.. Just interesting... It also indicates the next couple weeks will be zig zagging and dropping before the next wave up... That is the criteria I am using for buy and sell points...please this is not financial advice just indicating technicals I'm using and observing at this time...

S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

Now, just as a note, this link will automatically update daily so if you read this post much later you need to look around October 31 2013 for this to make sense...
 
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ravensfan said:
Nice Chart DBA! So what are you looking for as a retracement point, 1713?
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i would say about 1685 ..give or take 10.. I'd be using the late June and early October low points and drawing line through those and extend into future about 10 to 15 days past today. BUT I really pay more attention to Slow Stochastic hitting 15 as entry point and watch for positives bounces off the lower Bollinger band and watching the candles for a few days... Because price sometimes bounces and slides further down the band before moving back up...and a little upward momentum.

On exits, I look more at the MACD and number of days of the uptrend..trying to get out around day 12 or so of the upswing..and Slow Stochastic around 90. Of course the political and economic and Fed reserve speak can mess that up. But those are the indicators I'm studying the most. So I got out on Friday, Oct 25, which was about 12th day of this past upswing. I missed a couple up days this week on Mon-Tues... But oh well..

so will watch to see if it does the expected sideways zig zag now ...and then drop before I start looking to get back in.
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
i would say about 1685 ..give or take 10.. I'd be using the late June and early October low points and drawing line through those and extend into future about 10 to 15 days past today. BUT I really pay more attention to Slow Stochastic hitting 15 as entry point and watch for positives bounces off the lower Bollinger band and watching the candles for a few days... Because price sometimes bounces and slides further down the band before moving back up...and a little upward momentum.

On exits, I look more at the MACD and number of days of the uptrend..trying to get out around day 12 or so of the upswing..and Slow Stochastic around 90. Of course the political and economic and Fed reserve speak can mess that up. But those are the indicators I'm studying the most. So I got out on Friday, Oct 25, which was about 12th day of this past upswing. I missed a couple up days this week on Mon-Tues... But oh well..

so will watch to see if it does the expected sideways zig zag now ...and then drop before I start looking to get back in.
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Thanks for the response DBA. I've been hanging around this site for about 10 months now, trying to learn enough to develop my own system. Sometimes I do well and other times not so much. I am aware of MACD and RSI and have gotten some info on how to read candle charts. Hopefully that will help me to identify entry and exit points a little better. I am intrigued however about your comment about getting out around day 12 of an upswing. Is that something you developed or is that a system you are following?

P.S. Love the name. I was always a Heart fan!
 
ravensfan said:
Thanks for the response DBA. I've been hanging around this site for about 10 months now, trying to learn enough to develop my own system. Sometimes I do well and other times not so much. I am aware of MACD and RSI and have gotten some info on how to read candle charts. Hopefully that will help me to identify entry and exit points a little better. I am intrigued however about your comment about getting out around day 12 of an upswing. Is that something you developed or is that a system you are following?

P.S. Love the name. I was always a Heart fan!
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Hi Ravensfan! The 12 day upswing is just something that I have observed just eyeballing different periods of market action going back a few years to 2008. Different funds/indexes do different things so not applicable on all, but I have noticed that from about day 10 to 15 usually ends many of the major portions of little upswings in market. I used to wait for MACD to cross down over red line on way down but noticed that by the time that happens you could lose a bit, so I usually try to look at when MACD starts to swing slightly downward (MACD at 90) and to get out but look at that and the number of days in a hard upswing to see if it is about time to get out. You don't want to get out too early either but that 12 day thing kinda seems to work out. Then it usually starts to just kind of meander sideways up and down and up and down as the bollinger bands get big and this all happens just before it goes down quite a bit. Then starts again.

I noticed that when the big 38%?? drop happened in 2008 it had already gone up and then was doing the sideways dance (up and down swinging a lot with volatility) before it had the major drop. So seeing that there is not a lot to be gained by hanging in while its doing that sideways thing and to try to exit with just a bit more price, I figure why not just get out at the top of the major upswing and not take that extra risk---yeah you might miss out on a bit but I feel better trying to time that instead of the volatility part of the cycle. So just kinda try to focus on how each fund tends to do that over a long time. Of course the monkey wrench is anything political, financial bad or good news, or something out of the ordinary.

Also looking at the bottom part of that major upswing to get in as early as possible is important too. Really need to study the bouncing along the lower bollinger band and candles and make sure to not get in too early before bottomed out. Any way you look at it, its a little challenging to figure out but it makes investing very interesting! :)

I'm like you just learning to navigate this. I see that Coolhand has been using ichimoku clouds and I also want to learn more about that and fibonacci replacement [sic???] or something like that. My problem is I refuse to use my desktop upstairs so I am limiting self to ipad. No computational power to download programs or Excel kinda sucks!! :notrust: I need to get me a very light weight laptop (MAC air) or something like that. uugghh..

Good luck to you!! :D
 
One more thing about the 10 to 15 day upswing...it's really important to keep an eye on the 10 day EMA. I start counting when price goes above the 10 day EMA ( try to get in before it goes above the 10 day EMA initially) and then have tried to stay in market as long as price is staying within that 10day EMA channel. There are some upswings that go longer...like up around as much as 20 days or thereabouts Or it touches 10 day and then continues up...so it's tougher to time than it sounds. So I look to see how close price is to breaking down below the 10 day EMA. Just take a look at DWCPF for S fund for the past year.
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
One more thing about the 10 to 15 day upswing...it's really important to keep an eye on the 10 day EMA. I start counting when price goes above the 10 day EMA ( try to get in before it goes above the 10 day EMA initially) and then have tried to stay in market as long as price is staying within that 10day EMA channel. There are some upswings that go longer...like up around as much as 20 days or thereabouts Or it touches 10 day and then continues up...so it's tougher to time than it sounds. So I look to see how close price is to breaking down below the 10 day EMA. Just take a look at DWCPF for S fund for the past year.
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Thanks for the tip DBA. I will add this to my toolbox. I did some research yesterday on Bollinger Bands and found the information to be quite fascinating. It certainly clarifies entry and exit points. I jumped into the I fund on two occasions this past year and both times lost. I added the Bollinger Bands in and found that I had jumped in when the price was bouncing off the upper band. No wonder I lost. So now I have Bollinger Bands, MACD, RSI, 10,20 and 50 day SMA and EMA, Seasonality, Bulls to Bears ratios and a little advice from smart folks like JTH, Coolhand (premium service) and yourself, to help make better decisions for timing the markets. Thanks again and happy investing!

V/r
ravensfan
 
Yep.. Still..market meandering up and down moving sideways. Has not yet hit 50 day EMA nor come close to hitting lower BB band and Slow Stochastic didn't quite go down to around 15 as I like to see before entering market...maybe next week..so still not bottomed.
Also, with this weeks price action the 50 day EMA is closer to 1715 so looks like that or a bit lower would be the retracement and goes with what FWM and Ravensfan were talking about recently.

Same goes for DWCPF = S fund although that funds BB bands are starting to contract and getting very close to its 50 day EMA.

C Fund link

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=SPX&time=7&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=6%2F20%2F2013&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=6&maval=10%2C20%2C50&uf=8&lf=4&lf2=32&lf3=2&type=4&style=370&size=4&x=67&y=15&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11

S Fund
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ad...sToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
 
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DBA, thank you for the chart links and insight; charting is certainly something I need to study up on... :blink:
 
Hi. Here are two pics of the 3 sock monkeys that I made for Burro. He won these per the bet that I lost to him on the furlough. I had fun making them, brushed up on both sewing machine and darning skills. I thought they turned out well. Burro wanted one with a Cowl Lick so the strippy one is his. The peace/love monkey is for a friend of his that he wanted me to make with a shorter leg. The third one is the batman for his son (and also gave his son a traditional monkey that was lost in a move).

The monkeys are pictured sitting on my desktop computer here at the VA in Austin.

Congratulations on your win Burro!!! Hope you all enjoy them! :)


Photo0766 - rotated.jpg



Photo0765 -rotated.jpg
 
thank you very much dba. you certainly went above and beyond on that deal, the monkeys are awesome! now i have most of my stocking stuffers for xmas already. when i tore open the package at the counter the postmistress looked at me all funny, like she could feel all the effort and care that went into making them too. outstanding.

i gave the kid the traditional sock monkey (not shown) and he remembered the old one he had years ago, cool. but when he sees the new batman one this holidays i'm hoping to convince him to give the other one to his grandpa's yippy little dachshunds for a chew toy treat. they will rip the stuffing out of it in no time, and maybe if i'm lucky choke on it. i hate those dam dogs. one is an albino blind in both eyes and deaf in one ear, and they others are all damaged misfits in their own special way too. i think he spends more on food and vet than he does on his groceries and healthcare. last halloween i offer to paint them all brown and shove broomsticks you know where and take them trick or treating as a bouquet of corndogs, but nobody thought that was funny. god grant me the serenity. you don't want to sit at my family table for thanksgiving.
 
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Your welcome Burro. Your comments are funny.. Ahhh. Yess.. Thanksgiving!! I think many of us share in wonderful times at the dinner table!! Craaazzyy families..but isn't it great..life would be boring without some of that! :DThen again... :rolleyes: ...a good book in a quiet corner....
 
Wow.. hope some folks cashed in on those highs. It did not get low enough for me to buy in... waiting for a buy point. Looking at the links under post 192 (they update automatically each day), S fund as of yesterday looks close to being something I can buy into. Waiting another day or two for it to go below 30 on MACD or at list come close to touching the 50 day EMA. As for C fund.... welllll..... its doing great.. so great I can't yet buy in but a little downturn could bring me to buy in as well. Hopefully both S and C will rippen at the same time so I only use 1 of my 2 IFTs for the month.

Yes and then just as its all exploding upward, someone has to say something deflating. Almost seems like a game with them, but glad of it as I might get in. This bull run has been extraordinary and then to hear someone trying to pop the balloon... welll .. just don't know. I'm just afraid that if I become a 100% believer and go all in the dang bottom will drop. But if QE continues, its to the MOON...and I do not see them discontinuing it... it's continuing. Really wish I had not picked this year as the year to try to time the market... buy and holders are reaping it big!! Congratulations!!

I have been thinking about my current strategy of timing market...each time I buy in at a higher price and I have always sold at an even higher price so it was a win but I did not go all in so profit was shorted, plus because its a huge bull market the overall is not coming down so it is very difficult this year to use a timing strategy and beat the bull. So with wins more limited, I stand to lose much more if the bottom dropped---- it would be a tremendous loss without dollar cost averaging. So figuring the loss is a bit harder for me because I have to figure in my prior wins, but it all comes back to how well I did at timing market as opposed to wins if I had just been a buy and holder. Well for this year there is no doubt buy and hold was a hugely difficult position to beat with a timing strategy. I lost on it.

But, no matter what the lesson for me is don't bet against a massive bull. The BIGGER lesson is that I still need to pay attention to what is happening in the market and be able to spot a permanent drop/ long term trend reversal in the market. Otherwise, I could suffer huge losses like those in 2008. Buy and hold strategy or people not watching the market lost tons of money that year. Still watchful of that. I'm still using the strategy that Mr. JohnRoss had pointed out about using the WEEKLY 50day EMA to spot trends. There is NO indication of a long term downturn that but still looking at it every week.

Also, mindful of reports that when it does drop it will be quick and massive.... Someone had posted something about us being just a few months away from the end of the current 5 year upswing...someone posted a chart showing that it looked like those upswings on average lasted 5 years... but who knows... this upswing is artificially created so not sure that will hold water this time.
 
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Looks like the train is approaching the station... Law87 mentioned 1725, anyone up for calling a bottom?
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
hi Birchtree.. Yes I know but dang it..can't find a place to leap on the dang train!!
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To answer your question... A friend of mine who was very rich with all the stocks he owned gave me some advice when I had the same problem as you. He said "just jump in."
 
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