DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

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skycophigh said:
Hey Dreamie, What say thee with the SS getting near 25 on the S&P about now???? thoughts??? short bounce before the "big fall"?? always love your stuff, Sky



QUOTE=DreamboatAnnie;439852]Here are daily charts for past 6 months.
DWCPF
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XX:DWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XX:DWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

SPX
S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com
Click to expand...
Hi SkyCopHigh, thank you for your compliment! I just checked out charts. So far my criteria for entry is almost there. For S fund (DWCPF), price is obviously low enough and below 50 day EMA, Bollinger Bands contracted, Slow Stochastic looks to be around 15 and MACD is in negative territory having crossed below the signal line. However, my final criteria has NOT been met....I like to see positive price movement and a good amount of confidence that the market is not going to drop significantly lower.

I also noticed that the DWCPF took a hard hit today...with a 1.13% drop. That's a much larger drop than the DOW. Also if you draw a line on this chart of the large low large candles, one can see that the drop Friday was still within that expected trajectory; however, the drop today now causes me to see that the trajectory of the lows has changed so it is not as steep. It indicates the bull is still a bull but is slowing a little. Bottom line is that until I see the upward movement I'm not buying. But there is a ray of Hope ...the Fast Stochastic is pitched upward so looks like prices go up tomorrow??? Still I'm expecting a second bounce off the lower BB thereafter.

The same goes for the C fund (SPX). Bollingers tightly contracted, SS very low, and MACD in negative territory. Problem is that price is outside the BB on the low band, but the fast stochastic has an up tick on its tail. and it will come back in within range when price moves up but I am conservative so I want to see it go back up for 3 days to ensure it has hit the bottom but again would expect it to hit the lower BB again. I don't believe it's bottomed yet.

Now on Wednesday the Fed may help the market but again don't know. I think they continue the Quantitative Easing policy but do not think they will make any changes.. I should think the market would like that news but then again it appears this past year good news was seen as bad and vice versa. So until I see upward movement I'm not buying in.

I would like to throw caution to the wind and buy in but it's not in my nature. I would rather lose out on some upside then to kick myself if it drops more. But don't take this to mean I don't have confidence in this market.... I expect it will recover fairly quickly. I just can't imagine it not doing that, but that is just my personal sentiment. If I was fully invested in market I would likely ride it out... In the end it's a matter of personal risk tolerance and strategy. Please do not take any of this as financial advice...:)
 
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Hi again dreamy....
how are your charts looking??? The SS is wandering sideways, I dont see much of that kind of movement on the yearly charts. Whats your BIG picture looking like????? Inquiring minds would like to know....LOL, enjoy your weekend...Sky







DreamboatAnnie said:
Hi SkyCopHigh, thank you for your compliment! I just checked out charts. So far my criteria for entry




is almost there. For S fund (DWCPF), price is obviously low enough and below 50 day EMA, Bollinger Bands contracted, Slow Stochastic looks to be around 15 and MACD is in negative territory having crossed below the signal line. However, my final criteria has NOT been met....I like to see positive price movement and a good amount of confidence that the market is not going to drop significantly lower.

I also noticed that the DWCPF took a hard hit today...with a 1.13% drop. That's a much larger drop than the DOW. Also if you draw a line on this chart of the large low large candles, one can see that the drop Friday was still within that expected trajectory; however, the drop today now causes me to see that the trajectory of the lows has changed so it is not as steep. It indicates the bull is still a bull but is slowing a little. Bottom line is that until I see the upward movement I'm not buying. But there is a ray of Hope ...the Fast Stochastic is pitched upward so looks like prices go up tomorrow??? Still I'm expecting a second bounce off the lower BB thereafter.

The same goes for the C fund (SPX). Bollingers tightly contracted, SS very low, and MACD in negative territory. Problem is that price is outside the BB on the low band, but the fast stochastic has an up tick on its tail. and it will come back in within range when price moves up but I am conservative so I want to see it go back up for 3 days to ensure it has hit the bottom but again would expect it to hit the lower BB again. I don't believe it's bottomed yet.

Now on Wednesday the Fed may help the market but again don't know. I think they continue the Quantitative Easing policy but do not think they will make any changes.. I should think the market would like that news but then again it appears this past year good news was seen as bad and vice versa. So until I see upward movement I'm not buying in.

I would like to throw caution to the wind and buy in but it's not in my nature. I would rather lose out on some upside then to kick myself if it drops more. But don't take this to mean I don't have confidence in this market.... I expect it will recover fairly quickly. I just can't imagine it not doing that, but that is just my personal sentiment. If I was fully invested in market I would likely ride it out... In the end it's a matter of personal risk tolerance and strategy. Please do not take any of this as financial advice...:)
Click to expand...
 
Hi Sky... I'll probably will get on late late tonight to post more. With market so tentative I would be cautious about re-entry. I'm thinking it could come back down to bounce off lower BB again. I'm looking at weekly EMAs going back to prior huge drops to see if I can see any thing in common for indicators and particularly at BB curves. Bye now! :)
 
Here are my notes on market drops in prior years and indicators for January 2014:

October 1987- market was in a steep uptrend for months ( from Feb to mid August) before this massive quick drop that started in late August and fully plunged in October. price above 100 day simple moving average (SMA) from April to September and sloped up for 4 mos until drop month. Month before prices dropped under 50 day SMA. 15 day crosses 50 SMA within a couple weeks of drop. The 20/50 daily exponential moving average (EMA) was also breeched but just a day before the massive drop...not enough time to react. The 10/20 EMA gave a 2 week warning as prices were dropping just before the massive plunges. Price had gone below mid point on BB and was hugging lower BB just before. Took 2 years to recover loss. The 10/20 EMA appears to be best indicator when market has been on a recent good/ steep uptrend.

October 1997- price above 100 day SMA from May to Sept, and did not fall below that until the big drop. Price also above the 50 day EMA until the drop. The 50 was breeched from midAug to mid Sept but then rose above until the drop in late October so all looked well. No 15/50 cross over. The 10/20 EMA cross over occurs a few days before drop with all indicators hitting (I.e. The cross over, price below mid-point on Bollinger bands (BB)). The SMA 10/20 crossover would not have given enough warning. This was a quick short drop and it recovered within 5 days..now it took more hits in next 15-20 days but fully recovered...seemed to be a market fluke/ scare. The 20/50 EMA daily was not breeched until after hit because it was such a quick hard hit but the market recovered loss within a month

Sept 2001- price was below 50 and 100SMA for much of the time before going back more than a year as there was a long downturn going on. That is IMPORTANT to note we were in a Downturn. In fact 100 day SMA was above the 50 day during the down turn. Looking at 10/20 daily EMA (which is much like the MACD but slightly different as it is based on 12 and 26 day EMA with a 9 day EMA as the signal line), it crossed when price was dropping and sometimes right when big drop was starting during downs. So in 2000 and 2001 the MACD crossing the signal line was most important in signaling best exit during very volatile years in COMBINATION with daily EMA cross over. MACD indicator best for re entry point.

Mar- Oct 2002- need to review

October 2007 and August 2007 (larger drop) PLUS October 2008.
In August 2007. --The 20 day EMA crossed the 50 day EMA at five days into drop. At that time this occurred after 5 days of prices below BB mid point. The prices stayed below mid point throughout drop. Of course MACD was negative..it always is when you have drops. The difference here was the break down below BB mid point. So why would anyone want to be in market when below mid point other than one wanting price to go up to recover more quickly and save an IFT? Is it worth risk of larger drop?? This cross over continued from Nov 2007 until April 2008, and again from June until October 2008. So this was a long downtrend...this whole time was a downtrend. So the 20/ 50 daily EMA cross over identifies a downtrend...no need to be in market when that is happening. If one had paid attention to that indicator, it would have saved a lot from losses. The 10 over 20 EMA was breeched and then went back above more frequently ( which would give small opportunities to be invested in market) during this timeframe but signaled a needed exit as it was definitely breeched during large downfalls. This indicator did allow a go during very small up trends within the larger down trend. September 2008 - below 100 day SMA for last half of June, all of July and Aug before big drop..so not good indicator for this drop. So the 20/50 EMA is good indicator of downtrend.

May 2010- takes 10 days in February and 10 days in May for the 20/50 day EMA to be breeched into the downturn. what is clear is that the 20/50 EMA daily does not get breeched as quickly during a sharp downturn when we have experienced steep uptrend in market. That's just the math of it. So prices going below mid point of BB, or the tighter 10/20 EMA daily cross over is better to mark an exit point during downturn when we have just experienced a period with sharp uptrend. Both in feb and May this indicator gets you out on day 1 of sharp downturn.

August 2011 - need to review

Opinion- since we have just come off continuous steep uptrend (2013), the 10/20 daily EMA cross over combined with prices below midpoint on BB are best indicators for getting out of market. MACD probably best for re entry. If prices continue downward for more than a few days after hitting 10/20 EMA breech, probably good to get out until market bottoms and price has bounced. If stay in until 20/50 crossover you already have gotten substantial loss and need to decide your risk ..wait for upside and bet on bull, or pull out with thought to get back in when bottom is confirmed to prevent further losses.

January 2014 -both indexes have crossed over 10/20 EMA.
SPX (C fund) hit 10/20 EMA cross over on 1-24; DWCPF ( S fund) hit it on 1-29.

The following not as good an indicator in current recent uptrend environment: 20/50 EMA has not yet crossed for either index but the 10 has crossed the 50 for SPX on 1/29...so it's getting close.
 
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DBA, what do you use for the BB, default or something else?

1774 on the S&P 500 is my line in the sand. Any confirmed drop below that line makes me think there is more selling (deeper selling) to come. If it is vigorously defended like all of 2013, then bullish I shall be...
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
DBA, what do you use for the BB, default or something else?

1774 on the S&P 500 is my line in the sand. Any confirmed drop below that line makes me think there is more selling (deeper selling) to come. If it is vigorously defended like all of 2013, then bullish I shall be...
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Hi RMI, I'm using standard default settings for Bollinger bands with 20 day SA, 2 standard deviations. Not sure if that is good or bad but the charting sites I am using (free) do not offer advance settings so I can't use the EMA.

In any case, I believe the price will bounce further down to hit the lower BB again this week and most likely bounce back up due to our still being in an uptrend; if it does not then it could be confirmation of a short term downtrend and would indicate further downside. How deep the drop is unknown.

Review of the historical large drops just emphasized to me that a 10/20 daily EMA cross over is a better indicator of downside than a 20/50 EMA when we have recently been in a steep uptrend. That's just the math of it due to using a shorter timeline to measure changes in price. For a short term trader like me, this helps you get out before small or large drops occur but being out too long could cost one some upside ( I'm still trying to modify my strategy to be in longer). If one is more long term, then a 20/50 might be better for triggering an exit but could vey well keep you in the market through a sharp downturn when we have recently been in a steep uptrend.

For the year, I continue to believe we are in a longer term bull trend. Right now, I am watching to see bottom to get back in.

I agree with you that 1774 or thereabouts is support line if you use the August and October low points to draw the support line. So this coming week will likely be key in testing that. If it stays above, it could mean re entry this week; otherwise I stay out...although F fund has been looking very good. Unfortunately it is already well into a up cycle..so thinking about it.

I went back and looked at 1987 to see how support line changed just before big drop and the support line was fairly flat just before drop so ill likely go back and look more closely for other drop years as well. Once that flat support line was breeched is when quick fall occurred. That also seems to support it would be prudent to get out at your support level if price drops below it.! Hummm... More to review.
 
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Nice little increase today. Looked at charts and price has now bounced away from lower Bollinger band a second time. Still looking for more positive price action and to see price touch BB mid-point before buy in ...maybe next week. If we get good news tomorrow this might be just the confidence needed to buy in 25-35% on Monday...but might be best to wait longer. Tomorrow will be telling. Hearing a lot about possible further drops but hoping this is it for now....who knows???

Also considering putting some into F fund. Price came down today! I see a few folks going 100% yesterday. Humm......:rolleyes:
 
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Here is his latest new article from Chris Ciavacco at Safehaven.com.

He talks about increasing stock exposure some since Fridays increase, but monitor what is happening and be mindful of possibility of more downside in coming months due to his study of historical info on downturns coming just after a "flatish" 50 day simple average on charts.

Improving Profile More Favorable For Stocks | Chris Ciovacco | Safehaven.com

I'll be taking this all in to decide on course of action. I'm highly tempted to enter market at S 20%, C 10% and F 30%. That would be a hedge entry---pitting market against bonds., but then I think why bother? OTHER parts says wait until mid week...FOLLOW YOUR STRATEGY....Ugghhh...
 
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konakathy said:
Hey girl ! Every been to to the Crossroads Guitar Festival? Looks like it would be a blast. Aloha

carlos santana & eric clapton at crossroads guitar festival.avi - YouTube
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Aloha Girl!! I've never been to CGF....nice video. I like Santana and Clapton. Yes does look like I'd be a blast. I looked it up and has show at Madison Square Gardens. Have you ever been? When you first mentioned it I was thinking Crossroads..like that show mix of rock group with country group. :p. Take care!
 
Why not higher risk? All S or all F? Am seeing others try that. Last year let everything ride on S and I 50/50% and did better than most. Just trying to learn this all now.


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offroad said:
Why not higher risk? All S or all F? Am seeing others try that. Last year let everything ride on S and I 50/50% and did better than most. Just trying to learn this all now.
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Hey I'm just starting too. I'm 50/50 right now because I'm a bit antsy on whether the market will have a huge correction soon. I'd rather lock in what I made last year, then at best play my chances for a 1-3% gain for a month.
 
offroad said:
Why not higher risk? All S or all F? Am seeing others try that. Last year let everything ride on S and I 50/50% and did better than most. Just trying to learn this all now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Not everyone has the same level of risk tolerance or sees the same level of risk in the markets. I'm partial to 100% allocations, but there are also plenty of folks who do very well with split allocations, timing is more important than the allocations and If you buy & hold than timing become irrelevant (bring on the market-timing flamers.) :D
 
This market is a real pain. I was seeing that prices are at the mid point on BBs with MACD going positive today and thinking to add more to stocks tomorrow (Wed)..then I read another article showing similarities of our last few months with crash of 1929 !! Gosh ...which way do we go, which way do we go? But you have to say it Like that large "slow" hound dog on a fox hunt in one of those great old Bugs Bunny cartoons. Yes, I know he actually says, "which way did he go, which way did he go!!"

Anyways..nothing like a good fright. :worried: Will likely decide within minutes of cut off....ugghhh.

Here is article just in case you want to get a chill!! Sweet Dreams!!;)
How To Deal With The Scary 1929 Parallel Chart | Chris Ciovacco | Safehaven.com

Of course if it drops, would likely happen Friday or sometime next week..or so I think. Don't like that right shoulder forming!!
 
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Hi Off-road and BichonFreeze,
I am very antsy about the market right now. But as I heard someone say on this forum, every dogs gotta eat!! :D thus my reason to enter partially.

I think what JTH said is right on the mark. Not everyone has the same level of risk tolerance or views the market conditions in the same manner. Last year, I limited exposure a lot because It was the first time I tried timing market. I started in May and did okay with limited risk exposure for most of that time. But, I definitely made mistakes, and could have made more if I had let it ride with a buy and hold strategy because last year was an extraordinary year for the market. This year it reportedly will not be as giving. So I'm still trying to learn more about technical indicators...adding more as I learn about them and favor some over others.

just within last few weeks, I've been reading more about limiting risk based on reading of market and technical indicators. So I'm positioned right now to limit risk by not going all in, and then if it tanks I have 50% to buy a much bigger dip. Of course if it goes the other way (up), I'd lose gains because 50% is sitting in G making me nothing. Timing the market is not easy, and I've given myself until May (1 year) to see if I can hang. I'm definitely short term trading now, but want to move more to a mid term ( several months) trader.

Right now I'm limiting exposure because I'm not comfortable with the market volatility, uncertainty and thought there could me a little more downside, and the 50 day moving average is flatish...once it starts going in upward slope I'd be more confident about upward movement.

I am contemplating going in more tomorrow only because my entry indicators have hit and if I wait too long it will be too late to enter (...if prices continue to rise). But I am on the fence right now. Best wishes on your investing!! :)
 
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