DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

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Hi dreamy, we sure missed this uptick didnt we, the SS was in the 20 ish range for 3 days, seemed to be the perfect spot for a buy signal, I waited and watched as its now back in overbought territory, ohhh well, who needs a few thousand dollars anyway!!!! sky[





QUOTE=DreamboatAnnie;442592]Hi Off-road and BichonFreeze,
I am very antsy about the market right now. But as I heard someone say on this forum, every dogs gotta eat!! :D thus my reason to enter partially.

I think what JTH said is right on the mark. Not everyone has the same level of risk tolerance or views the market conditions in the same manner. Last year, I limited exposure a lot because It was the first time I tried timing market. I started in May and did okay with limited risk exposure for most of that time. But, I definitely made mistakes, and could have made more if I had let it ride with a buy and hold strategy because last year was an extraordinary year for the market. This year it reportedly will not be as giving. So I'm still trying to learn more about technical indicators...adding more as I learn about them and favor some over others.

just within last few weeks, I've been reading more about limiting risk based on reading of market and technical indicators. So I'm positioned right now to limit risk by not going all in, and then if it tanks I have 50% to buy a much bigger dip. Of course if it goes the other way (up), I'd lose gains because 50% is sitting in G making me nothing. Timing the market is not easy, and I've given myself until May (1 year) to see if I can hang. I'm definitely short term trading now, but want to move more to a mid term ( several months) trader.

Right now I'm limiting exposure because I'm not comfortable with the market volatility, uncertainty and thought there could me a little more downside, and the 50 day moving average is flatish...once it starts going in upward slope I'd be more confident about upward movement.

I am contemplating going in more tomorrow only because my entry indicators have hit and if I wait too long it will be too late to enter (...if prices continue to rise). But I am on the fence right now. Best wishes on your investing!! :)[/QUOTE]
 
skycophigh said:
Hi dreamy, we sure missed this uptick didnt we, the SS was in the 20 ish range for 3 days, seemed to be the perfect spot for a buy signal, I waited and watched as its now back in overbought territory, ohhh well, who needs a few thousand dollars anyway!!!! sky[

Hi Sky,
Yep, your right. I went in just a bit on Monday because while indicators seemed good, I was not confident enough that the bottom had been found, nor that we are in an uptrend. So I kinda hedged bet by putting some into F, S and C....more in F. But based on what price has done last few days it's possible market could be back in an uptrend, but I'm not quite convinced of that yet.

What I mean by that is that I have not yet seen a higher high or higher low. So at this point it is still possible that we are in for more downside. I'd like to see price come down a bit, but not go as low as last week and then see it go upward again to be higher than it is today...or something like that. Just show a up down but more up stair step pattern.. If it doesn't do that, then we will begin to get confirmation of a short to midterm downtrend. Time will tell!

I saw SS was perfect last week but due to all the downside last week I was not confident, and still not fully confident market has finished its little bottoming act. So I did partial entry to limit risk but hopefully get good action. I see that MACD is now gone positive and prices are at or very close to Bollinger Band mid points---that was not the case last week.

I'm considering the current indicators as a positive to move in a little more, or redistribute but continue to be undecided.

Please look at Sept and November. See how SS gives indication first (low when price is low) but MACD does not cross to positive until a few days later--after prices have more positive action. But by then the SS is high but there is still more upside during that time but not a lot. Using MACD for entry is more conservative compared to SS for entry....but you lose some upside. The only thing I do not like is that both Slow Stochastic and Fast S are slightly bent down right now so kind of seems like an indication it could be headed down.....ugghhh. So I'm being cautious by limiting amount in market...50% G right now, 30F, 10S and 10C.

Here are a few links to charts:

S Fund
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XX:DWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XX:DWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

C fund - Tracking SPX
S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

I went in partly on Monday (forgot to update my signature line..now updated). I've also started giving price action crossing the BB mid-point more weight in decision making. Right now we are conservatively- speaking approaching the next wave, which I think is up, but we'll see.
Click to expand...
 
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Hi again Dreamy, You are so right, it seems like a roulette game trying to be a timer. I was buy and hold for many years, and broke even, at least I have been on the winning side more often in the last few years, I'm very conservative to, have a larger balance so every little point is very expensive when it goes to the downside. I will need some of it to live on later in life, thanks for all your input, I'm thinking a little to the "F" fund too, just to put something to work, and wait for a better entry, Keep me posted.....cheers, sky!








QUOTE=DreamboatAnnie;442756]
skycophigh said:
Hi dreamy, we sure missed this uptick didnt we, the SS was in the 20 ish range for 3 days, seemed to be the perfect spot for a buy signal, I waited and watched as its now back in overbought territory, ohhh well, who needs a few thousand dollars anyway!!!! sky[

Hi Sky,
Yep, your right. I went in just a bit on Monday because while indicators seemed good, I was not confident enough that the bottom had been found, nor that we are in an uptrend. So I kinda hedged bet by putting some into F, S and C....more in F. But based on what price has done last few days it's possible market could be back in an uptrend, but I'm not quite convinced of that yet.

What I mean by that is that I have not yet seen a higher high or higher low. So at this point it is still possible that we are in for more downside. I'd like to see price come down a bit, but not go as low as last week and then see it go upward again to be higher than it is today...or something like that. Just show a up down but more up stair step pattern.. If it doesn't do that, then we will begin to get confirmation of a short to midterm downtrend. Time will tell!

I saw SS was perfect last week but due to all the downside last week I was not confident, and still not fully confident market has finished its little bottoming act. So I did partial entry to limit risk but hopefully get good action. I see that MACD is now gone positive and prices are at or very close to Bollinger Band mid points---that was not the case last week.

I'm considering the current indicators as a positive to move in a little more, or redistribute but continue to be undecided.

Please look at Sept and November. See how SS gives indication first (low when price is low) but MACD does not cross to positive until a few days later--after prices have more positive action. But by then the SS is high but there is still more upside during that time but not a lot. Using MACD for entry is more conservative compared to SS for entry....but you lose some upside. The only thing I do not like is that both Slow Stochastic and Fast S are slightly bent down right now so kind of seems like an indication it could be headed down.....ugghhh. So I'm being cautious by limiting amount in market...50% G right now, 30F, 10S and 10C.

Here are a few links to charts:

S Fund
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XX:DWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XX:DWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

C fund - Tracking SPX
S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

I went in partly on Monday (forgot to update my signature line..now updated). I've also started giving price action crossing the BB mid-point more weight in decision making. Right now we are conservatively- speaking approaching the next wave, which I think is up, but we'll see.
Click to expand...
 
Risk to me is all the same. It will all bounce back. In general it's still a bull market. And that means not much risk if you await the bounce back. If it was a bear market then you might sustain a loss if you did timing. Right ? My gambling instinct taking over.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
"33% of the 500 stocks in the S&P have received a daily MACD buy signal over the last ten days. This marks the biggest surge in momentum since the November 2012 lows which set the stage for a strong multi-month rally."
 
Birchtree said:
"33% of the 500 stocks in the S&P have received a daily MACD buy signal over the last ten days. This marks the biggest surge in momentum since the November 2012 lows which set the stage for a strong multi-month rally."
Click to expand...
Birch I love your input, but there comes a time when you have to think negatively, I have never seen that, you are always positive, how can this be? Might be a good idea if you let the people know that you are thinking LOOOOOONG term.
 
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If I desired to think negatively I'd be deep in bonds rather than equities - no time for negative vibes. We are in the early stages of a mega trend secular bull market that can potentially last several decades. All my energy is on making more money than I can conceivably spend. No bonds for me, ever.
 
Birchtree said:
If I desired to think negatively I'd be deep in bonds rather than equities - no time for negative vibes. We are in the early stages of a mega trend secular bull market that can potentially last several decades. All my energy is on making more money than I can conceivably spend. No bonds for me, ever.
Click to expand...

Hi BT, it's surely possible. However, Some say we have been in a secular Bear market since 2000.... So maybe that has ended. While I'm no expert in that, I do know that within secular, very long term (17-20 years) bull or bear markets, there are cyclical (shorter term) bull or bear markets.

I got hit being a buy and holder during that last little downturn of 2007-2009, by about 38% (and lots of people on this site did too by the looks of the auto tracker finals for 2008). It took me few years to get that back...stayed invested. Because I'm within 10 years of retirement, and need to count on my TSP fund, that kind of loss is just unacceptable.

So now I'm paying attention to avoid those little pitfalls... I don't think being invested in bonds is negative per se and I'll even admit I don't like that fund because its not much better than G fund in the long term, but in the short term I've noticed some folks have very successfully timed the market and were in F fund last month and made some good money...so hats off to them and congrats!!

In the end, I just want to make as much money as possible...so whatever it takes is good with me. I do refuse to just ignore what is happening and do nothing like I did years ago. So keeping an eye on the ball and Hoping to avoid major downturns by following my short to mid term investment strategy. Now I just need help to figure out how to better time entries to not lose upturn. So I continue to read a lot!

I've heard you talk about getting dividend earning stocks, staying invested in them to build up some quarterly payments ...that is an AWESOME investment strategy especially for producing income during retirement. I'm going to look into doing that outside of TSP. While I know that does increase stock value within TSP, not sure how you do or don't get to keep it when you move in and out of stocks in TSP. Maybe you or someone can advise on that.

I'd also like to learn more about strategies on finding bottoms and entry points.. So if anyone wants to share or give some tips on that, I Would love to hear from you and I'm sure lots of others would too!!! Please share your thoughts!! :D

BT... I like your positive vibes.. And that goes hand and hand with your very long term investment strategy!! Best wishes! :)
 
Last edited:
One more article...says long term investing best... Says individuals are not very good at timing market! Hummm. But look at our tracker...some folks are pretty good. So like everything it's a risk to time market! Gotta decide what you are or are not good at. That's what I'm doing...I have a one year race with myself. Time will tell if I go back to buy and hold.:rolleyes:

Is It Time to Dive Into the Stock Market - WSJ.com
 
Am trying to understand risk and timing. If the market shows no bear like activity, but has shown roller coaster fluctuation, would you of course put your TSP into a high yielding fund? Why put anything into G fund?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
offroad said:
Am trying to understand risk and timing. If the market shows no bear like activity, but has shown roller coaster fluctuation, would you of course put your TSP into a high yielding fund? Why put anything into G fund?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

If you ride out all the fluctuations, you will get all the gains and losses together, potentially canceling each other out completely. If you time it correctly, moving your money to the G fund at the top of a wave will save you from the losses of that next leg down. And then you put your money back into a stock fund, like S or C, near the bottom. That's the theory anyway..

It is difficult and and even the experts will never get it right 100% of the time, but it's your best bet to make money in a sideways fluctuating market.
 
Checking out the daily charts.. Looks like S and C funds are due for another pullback this week....how much is the question. Bollinger bands are so wide right now. So just as others have also reported, it looks consolidation time. But somehow S and I look very good...could they pull back?? Yes, but could also just keep going up. Thinking about buying in more although I should wait for a small pull back. Will decide tomorrow whether to go in more. Prices are within the 10-day exponential moving average. While MACD is positive the Slow Stochastic has turned downward. I have so little invested right now I may just let it ride...maybe buy in more if it looks like a little short downturn in price.

These daily charts are set to show EMA 10, 20, 50 day averages, plus Bollinger bands, and both slow and fast Stochastics. I have a bookmark for each, click on links and it automatically pulls up the most current data ...these bigcharts update throughout day..so I also often use these to see what's happening intraday. I just reset timeframes to a two-day with 15 minute or hourly increments.

DWCPF- S fund tacks
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XX:DWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XX:DWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

SPX - C fund
S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

EFA - I fund
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, EFA Advanced Chart - (NAR) EFA, iShares MSCI EAFE ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com

F Fund - AGG
iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF, AGG Advanced Chart - (NAR) AGG, iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com



Here are the WEEKLY charts.
These have "weekly" EMA 10, 20, 50 plus BBs, MACD, and The Stochastics ( slow and fast). Looking at the 10 weekly average EMA and for crossover below the 20 weekly EMA....one indicator for possible trigger to pull out of market.

DWCPF - S Fund--- weekly EMA
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XX:DWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XX:DWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

SPX - C Fund - Weekly EMAs

S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com


EFA - I Fund - Weekly EMAs
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, EFA Advanced Chart - (NAR) EFA, iShares MSCI EAFE ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com

AGG - F Fund - Weekly EMA
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ad...sToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
 
Last edited:
DreamboatAnnie said:
Checking out the daily charts.. Looks like S and C funds are due for another pullback this week....how much is the question. Bollinger bands are so wide right now. So just as others have also reported, it looks consolidation time. But somehow S and I look very good...could they pull back?? Yes, but could also just keep going up. Thinking about buying in more although I should wait for a small pull back. Will decide tomorrow whether to go in more. Prices are within the 10-day exponential moving average. While MACD is positive the Slow Stochastic has turned downward. I have so little invested right now I may just let it ride...maybe buy in more if it looks like a little short downturn in price.

These daily charts are set to show EMA 10, 20, 50 day averages, plus Bollinger bands, and both slow and fast Stochastics. I have a bookmark for each, click on links and it automatically pulls up the most current data ...these bigcharts update throughout day..so I also often use these to see what's happening intraday. I just reset timeframes to a two-day with 15 minute or hourly increments.

DWCPF- S fund tacks
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XX:DWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XX:DWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

SPX - C fund
S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

EFA - I fund
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, EFA Advanced Chart - (NAR) EFA, iShares MSCI EAFE ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com

F Fund - AGG
iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF, AGG Advanced Chart - (NAR) AGG, iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com



Here are the WEEKLY charts.
These have "weekly" EMA 10, 20, 50 plus BBs, MACD, and The Stochastics ( slow and fast). Looking at the 10 weekly average EMA and for crossover below the 20 weekly EMA....one indicator for possible trigger to pull out of market.

DWCPF - S Fund--- weekly EMA
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XX:DWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XX:DWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

SPX - C Fund - Weekly EMAs

S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com


EFA - I Fund - Weekly EMAs
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, EFA Advanced Chart - (NAR) EFA, iShares MSCI EAFE ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com

AGG - F Fund - Weekly EMA
iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF, AGG Advanced Chart - (NAR) AGG, iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com
Click to expand...

Thanks for the charts Annie. Nice job!!! Also, I know it's tough with so much on the sidelines and the markets meandering along, but stick with your strategy. Remember it's those emotional trades that usually come back to bite you. Patience grasshopper patience...
 
Decided to move out of F and market. Looks like a short pull back is in order. Will lock in my gains and jump back in next month. Best wishes to all! Hoping market prices stay up thru COB. :)
 
Good move DBAnnie, sometimes staying too long in the F fund can begin to feel like being in a pigpen. Good clean start for next month's market action. Good luck in March.
 
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