DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

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I suspect the S&P will hit 2000 then possibly correct 10%. Then make its way up to 2500. Don't stay out too long. When it comes to investing, value is relative. And right now when you size up financial assets, stocks win by a mile. If bonds keep selling off, we'll see even more rotation into stocks. The word for the day is TINA - there is no alternative.
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Yes this market has lots of momentum and volatility. Looks like we had a shakeout candle two days ago, but it might come back down and test support around 1850 on SPX but looks like it might only come back to 1860. I'm thinking any day now with a small pull back for entry. Really do not want to chase this wild thing!! :nuts: dang it....patience...Monday awaits...but I am tempted to enter now....bye and well wishes to all ...DBAnnie :)

I did get a bit of that SPX run up from feb 10 to 28th but was not fully invested... Too conservative. Gotta change that!
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Hey Dreamy it has been tough sitting on the sidelines. Each day I wait for that small pullback which never materializes. Then I go back and look at last weeks prices and wish I would have gotten in then. So I can relate to what BT is saying. I'm already 25% in the I Fund and will probably go an additional 25% into the C or S on Monday. I just hate the thought of buying high, but think there is money to be made in April.
 
We haven't seen the highs yet - the market continues to follow the 1995 breakout trajectory. Investors are pouring more money into stock mutual funds than they have in 13 years. Bulls gone wild - money flows hit a new record.
 
ravensfan said:
Hey Dreamy it has been tough sitting on the sidelines. Each day I wait for that small pullback which never materializes. Then I go back and look at last weeks prices and wish I would have gotten in then. So I can relate to what BT is saying. I'm already 25% in the I Fund and will probably go an additional 25% into the C or S on Monday. I just hate the thought of buying high, but think there is money to be made in April.
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Hi Ravensfan! :). I must agree! Looking at charts today...Monday or Tuesday could be day to jump in. Bollinger bands are contracting and even though MACD is still negative it's sloping upward. It always seems like prices hit their low a bit before MACD crosses to positive territory. Slow Stochastic heading downward but still a little too high. Yep ..I'm definitely going to be on high alert Monday. Chances to jump in are so short...then gotta hold breathe to see how it turns out. It really stinks that we must place our IFTs so early in the day. Really no excuse for it ...TSP Board sucks!! Wish we could submit as late as 1 hour before markets close.

I'm thinking about I fund..but not sure..just looked at charts..looks like it could be a good buy...prices dropping but it looks like it could go up. But might be more downside effects next week if USA get supports for economic sanctions with a little more bite on Russia. I might buy some. I've really always preferred S fund, since it's been around. Thinking 50% S, 30%C, 20% I....Or 60-25-15, respectively. Ugghhh decisions ..decisions!
 
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Whipsaw said:
DBA! You must be feeling better, glad to see you posting again. :cool:
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Hi Whipsaw! Thank you for your kind words. I have had a very bad chest cold....much much better! Had it for two weeks...yuck! :(. I'm getting back into it.

Now Ive gotta concentrate on getting back into market...Mondays looking like possible entry. Will see. I need to make some money.....so I can blow some in Vegas..ha ha ha...heading there for 5 days on April 3rd! That's a long time... I think I'll be good if I stick to blackjack and stay away from the Roulette tables...which I love. Being an accountant and all...I just love numbers..especially green zero and double zero . Yes I know the house has the advantage...but they always do. Something about that little ball flying around and the excitement of everyone crowding in to throw chips all over the place!!! :D

Well best wishes with the market. :)
 
just bet it all on red, that's what i'd do. and if that don't work out head over to the nickle slots at vegas world or circus circus with your bus money, you'll almost certainly meet a cocktail waitress in a dolly parton wig.

i mispent the better part of my youth there. aahhh, good times.

oh, and good luck with the whole stock market thing.

DreamboatAnnie said:
Hi Whipsaw! Thank you for your kind words. I have had a very bad chest cold....much much better! Had it for two weeks...yuck! :(. I'm getting back into it.

Now Ive gotta concentrate on getting back into market...Mondays looking like possible entry. Will see. I need to make some money.....so I can blow some in Vegas..ha ha ha...heading there for 5 days on April 3rd! That's a long time... I think I'll be good if I stick to blackjack and stay away from the Roulette tables...which I love. Being an accountant and all...I just love numbers..especially green zero and double zero . Yes I know the house has the advantage...but they always do. Something about that little ball flying around and the excitement of everyone crowding in to throw chips all over the place!!! :D

Well best wishes with the market. :)
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Birchtree said:
I suspect the S&P will hit 2000 then possibly correct 10%. Then make its way up to 2500. Don't stay out too long. When it comes to investing, value is relative. And right now when you size up financial assets, stocks win by a mile. If bonds keep selling off, we'll see even more rotation into stocks. The word for the day is TINA - there is no alternative.
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Hi Birchtree! I must agree...TINA!! Markets the place to be...it's just that I don't like red candles...:D I'm trying to avoid them as much as possible!! They make me sad! I sure do hope it hits 2000.

Now for the curiosity question:
When do you think it would hit 2000?
More importantly why would it correct 10% at that point?

.... Best wishes on your wallflowers!!:)
 
There has not been a 10% correction in over two years so we are due. Also the 40 and 60 year Kress cycles will be bearing down on the economy so a 10% can happen at any time - just recognize it for what it is ahead of time and forget to panic. 2014 has the potential to be like 1995, so we may not see a 10% correction until sometime in 2015 especially if the Kress cycles are stretched out for time. The SPX could easily achieve 2000 by the end of April - there is so much sidelined money, including yours, that wants to participate in this bulls gone wild market. I'm chomping on my bit to put more green to work. And i'm talking hundreds of thousands of dollars to buy more lovely wall flowers. The more you have in the bigger the win. I've been riding Ferdinand from the beginning and I'm not ready to surrender yet.
 
Well...not sure of this market...not as low as I would like it for entry. It could go down more this week, but decided I am definitely getting in 50% today with thought I am going to leave it in long term. If more downside this week, I'll try to buy the dip. Market just so volatil..BBs constricted. MACD for C fund-SPX looks like it's sloping upward. S fund still slightly down sloping. I probably should wait another day or so but tired of being on the sidelines. It's a long term trade. So in I go for COB today. Probably go 25% C and 25% S...or thereabouts. Best wishes to all!
 
Hey Dreamy, I too have the need to make a trade, and I like your reasoning, but the SS is still way to high, if I remember your parameters.....and if we would have pulled the trigger at 25 ish, and sold at 80 ish, we would be way UP!!! , good luck, i will do something soon, but i disagree with Birch on the S and P 2000 by late april, i still think around 1835 ish might be a better entry point....we shall see.... Sky
 
skycophigh said:
Hey Dreamy, I too have the need to make a trade, and I like your reasoning, but the SS is still way to high, if I remember your parameters.....and if we would have pulled the trigger at 25 ish, and sold at 80 ish, we would be way UP!!! , good luck, i will do something soon, but i disagree with Birch on the S and P 2000 by late april, i still think around 1835 ish might be a better entry point....we shall see.... Sky
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Hellllooooo thereee Skycophigh!! How ya doing? Well I have been trying to modify my strategy because it was keeping me out tooooo long. So while I really dont like those red candles I really dislike seeing those green candles passing me by as I sit on the side.

But I definitely agree with you...seeing Slow Stochastic (SS) too high... but I was thinking.. if it goes down to 20-25ish and you miss jumping on the rollercoaster, as it pulls up there is still a little upside to ride. Now if those Bollinger Bands (BBs) are wide open and its already reached peak and its going sideways like a sidewinder, well then its probably too late to get on.. but if the BBs are contracted then to me that means the coaster has pulled up and its almost time to get on board for the next ride. Only problem is we cant see the track to see if its heading up or down.

So while I do not think the bands are going to expand this week (meaning more downside this week--more buy opportunities). I am thinking by next week the BBs will start to expand outward. At that point, I will be watching very closely to see if it looks like it is going to shoot UP or DOWN. Then will need to make a hard decision on whether to get out and take a little loss and try to catch it on the upswing, or whether to just let it ride down and then ride it back on up.

I do not see this market coming down with a long term CONSEQUENCE (i.e. a long term down trend that takes us a year or more to recover). So even if it goes down 10%, we would recover the money back quickly.... provided we don't get out and then stay on to ride it back up: so it would be nothing lost and I think it would recover in a month or two.

So my buy yesterday, was at 50% (25%C-25%S) with 50% in G reserved for a later dip. I am going to TRY to treat the 50% in as a somewhat longer term (2-3 month) buy. So even if it pulls back I am really going to try as hard as I can to not sell. I am going to trust that this market is NOT going LONGTERM down anytime soon. Will continually think about it but really don't see that happening...although news this morning about economy being worse than reported has me a little concerned. But in any case, I am thinking downturns are very shortterm. Now with the 50% still in G, I am going to time another dip this week and or next.

I think I posted a link to a good 2 hr class on candlesticks a week or so ago. Worth checking out. Now here is something odd that I have been noticing... I notice that when a candle wick first touches the 20 day EMA line, you have a day or two at most to get out before the market turns down. Check it out!!! I haven't put numbers to it and probably will not get a chance to do that, but I think it is very interesting. So on my charts I have the set to a 10, 20, 50 day Exponential Moving Average, with BBs (regular) and Slow and Fast Stochastics and then come in and swithc out the Fast for RSI. Also have now learned about looking for DIVERGENCE. I'll talk about that later but looking at the shackout candle lined up at a support line can help you better identify an entry point. So I am testing that and trying to incorporate that into my strategy.

About the charts, I think I was seeing support at about 1845 for SPX (but could be up at 1860 by now)...I gotta check charts. For DWCPF, I was seeing it at 1020 (maybe even 1015 or 1017). Big charts is hard to see it and I do look at the wicks to find support as far as looking at a purely lateral support line ...that is being hit on most for up turns and down turns of the past few months, as opposed to connecting lines using the most prominent lows over past few months.

But no matter what while knowledge is helpful, execution is everything. So hoping I do not get burned...on the early entry. Last month I bought in just a tad late on 2/10 and then pulled out 2/28. I rode a very good part of that up wave but I really messed up by not going all in. I was a scaredy cat!! Im not doing that this time... hope I do not regret it. But baby gotta eat!! :D

P.S. This market is so exciting.. I'm just loving it! Gosh hope it does not kick me in the teeth! Also, remember I am NO expert and this is not financial advice. Just my humble thoughts! :toung:
 
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Thank you for posting the song Handballer! That's very sweet of you. Haven't heard it in awhile! :) just love it! Best wishes on your trades! DBAnnie
 
Thanks for the perspective DBA. Sometimes I concentrate so much on the trees I forget to look at the forrest.

All the best to you.:)
 
Dreamy, as usual, well said, I continue to chart the SS, as with every entry, we are hoping for the bottom most point, Ha, that never seems to happen, and I get nervous when the market heads down, bail, and then miss the ride back up. However, daddy gots to eat to, and sinced I am retired, i need to be careful. I spent 28 years 7 months on the job, and have lost more money on this stupid TSP than I care to imagine. every single percentage is alot of moolah.....i am a chicken when it comes to putting it all out there, I usually go 50/50 anyway too, thanxs for all the insight, u are a doll.... Sky
 
sky
not trying to be nosey, but are you withdrawing from your TSP? i plan to retire on 5/2/14 and still have my monies in equities high risk/reward. i dont plan to draw from my TSP when i retire , so i figure i would let my money work and hopefully see the big drop and get out before it happens. if by chance i get caught i will have to let it stay and ride it back up. curious minds need to know:confused:
 
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