DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

If I may, this bull probably has years yet to rumble which means your TSP account will also participate. You might consider rolling some money to a traditional IRA and purchasing some dividend paying wall flowers and just reinvest that income and watch the growth compound. You'll have many years to grow wealth. You can certainly make mucho dollars with your TSP too, especially if you do try market timing, but I'd hedge my bets with an IRA.

 

[GUCHI]

bt
first off thanks for the suggestion. i have a few stocks with tdameritrade and the advisor i contacted said the same but he suggested that i move it all to an IRA so i would have more versatility and i could even pick up an index to mimic what i have (TSP) if i wanted to continue that way.

DBA sorry for the hijack , but i really need help with this investing thingy and you all have a wealth of info and stats.

If I may, this bull probably has years yet to rumble which means your TSP account will also participate. You might consider rolling some money to a traditional IRA and purchasing some dividend paying wall flowers and just reinvest that income and watch the growth compound. You'll have many years to grow wealth. You can certainly make mucho dollars with your TSP too, especially if you do try market timing, but I'd hedge my bets with an IRA.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Weekly charts - for past 3 years. (Just posted for longer term perspective)

SPX

$SPX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com


DWCPF

$DWCPF - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Hello, just want to make a comment about these weekly charts. Looking at SPX, which the C fund tracks, if you just stay in the market as long as the candle (weekly) is above the dotted midpoint line of the Bollinger bands you make money and can stay in longer term. Just gotta get out when ithat weekly average hits that dotted line mid point...yes there are ups and down daily but when you look at the weeklies..just stay in to ride the longer term waves of the weekly. Doing that will assure you miss the short term down trends. So you can make more money than a buy and hold...you can see the long term trend is up!! Just avoid those little downs. Of course, you can see where there is a bit of whipsaw even on weeklies. In any case that is a strategy I've considered. Still like looking at the weeklies to get an overall perspective.

Also, look at 2011 and 2012..study closely ( make it big so you can see it). When either the candle touches the Bollinger Band mid point dotted line, or the 10 week ema line crosses below the 20 weekly EMA, that spells bad news ahead. Looks like a very good marker to get out! Then get back in when the 10 crosses back above the 20. Just my thoughts...now looking at the current times you can see we are safely up in that 10 weekly channel. So no worries just yet. Then I go and look at daily for a more micro view.

Please note this is not financial advice..just some personal observations. Now flash crashes are different. See Post 355 and 369 = discussing/analysis of flash crashes. I'll post dailies next..well will just repost them all. All these charts update automatically...so you can look at them anytime for the latest info.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Checking out the daily charts..

These daily charts are set to show EMA 10, 20, 50 day averages, plus Bollinger bands, and both slow and fast Stochastics. I have a bookmark for each, click on links and it automatically pulls up the most current data ...these bigcharts update throughout day..so I also often use these to see what's happening intraday. I just reset timeframes to a two-day with 15 minute or hourly increments.

DWCPF- S fund tacks
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XXWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XXWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

SPX - C fund
S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

EFA - I fund
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, EFA Advanced Chart - (NAR) EFA, iShares MSCI EAFE ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com

F Fund - AGG
iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF, AGG Advanced Chart - (NAR) AGG, iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com



Here are the WEEKLY charts.
These have "weekly" EMA 10, 20, 50 plus BBs, MACD, and The Stochastics ( slow and fast). Looking at the 10 weekly average EMA and for crossover below the 20 weekly EMA....one indicator for possible trigger to pull out of market.

DWCPF - S Fund--- weekly EMA
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XXWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XXWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

SPX - C Fund - Weekly EMAs

S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com


EFA - I Fund - Weekly EMAs
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, EFA Advanced Chart - (NAR) EFA, iShares MSCI EAFE ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com

AGG - F Fund - Weekly EMA
iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF, AGG Advanced Chart - (NAR) AGG, iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com[/QUOTE]

My notes:
So prices going below mid point of BB, or the tighter 10/20 EMA daily cross over is better to mark an exit point during downturn when we have just experienced a period with sharp uptrend. May 2010- this indicator gets you out on day 1 of sharp downturn per last review. In 2000 and 2001 the MACD crossing the signal line was most important in signaling best exit during very volatile years in COMBINATION with daily EMA cross over. MACD indicator best for re entry point.

Opinion- since we have just come off continuous steep uptrend (2013), the 10/20 daily EMA cross over combined with prices below midpoint on BB are best indicators for getting out of market. MACD probably best for re entry. If prices continue downward for more than a few days after hitting 10/20 EMA breech, probably good to get out until market bottoms and price has bounced. If stay in until 20/50 crossover you already have gotten substantial loss and need to decide your risk ..wait for upside and bet on bull, or pull out with thought to get back in when bottom is confirmed to prevent further losses.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

A note to my notes...those notes relate to daily very short term buys. To look at market perspective look at weekly charts for cross overs that are more serious regarding downturns.

Checking out the daily charts..

These daily charts are set to show EMA 10, 20, 50 day averages, plus Bollinger bands, and both slow and fast Stochastics. I have a bookmark for each, click on links and it automatically pulls up the most current data ...these bigcharts update throughout day..so I also often use these to see what's happening intraday. I just reset timeframes to a two-day with 15 minute or hourly increments.

DWCPF- S fund tacks
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XXWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XXWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

SPX - C fund
S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

EFA - I fund
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, EFA Advanced Chart - (NAR) EFA, iShares MSCI EAFE ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com

F Fund - AGG
iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF, AGG Advanced Chart - (NAR) AGG, iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com



Here are the WEEKLY charts.
These have "weekly" EMA 10, 20, 50 plus BBs, MACD, and The Stochastics ( slow and fast). Looking at the 10 weekly average EMA and for crossover below the 20 weekly EMA....one indicator for possible trigger to pull out of market.

DWCPF - S Fund--- weekly EMA
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XXWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XXWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

SPX - C Fund - Weekly EMAs

S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com


EFA - I Fund - Weekly EMAs
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, EFA Advanced Chart - (NAR) EFA, iShares MSCI EAFE ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com

AGG - F Fund - Weekly EMA
iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF, AGG Advanced Chart - (NAR) AGG, iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com

My notes:
So prices going below mid point of BB, or the tighter 10/20 EMA daily cross over is better to mark an exit point during downturn when we have just experienced a period with sharp uptrend. May 2010- this indicator gets you out on day 1 of sharp downturn per last review. In 2000 and 2001 the MACD crossing the signal line was most important in signaling best exit during very volatile years in COMBINATION with daily EMA cross over. MACD indicator best for re entry point.

Opinion- since we have just come off continuous steep uptrend (2013), the 10/20 daily EMA cross over combined with prices below midpoint on BB are best indicators for getting out of market. MACD probably best for re entry. If prices continue downward for more than a few days after hitting 10/20 EMA breech, probably good to get out until market bottoms and price has bounced. If stay in until 20/50 crossover you already have gotten substantial loss and need to decide your risk ..wait for upside and bet on bull, or pull out with thought to get back in when bottom is confirmed to prevent further losses.[/QUOTE]

 

[ravensfan]

Hey DBAnnie, better hoist another sail, Your about to get a rudder full of the mighty raven. I'm catching up and if I pass you, you'll never catch me. Caw caw sayeth the raven...catch me nevermore...:laugh:

I just love it when the gauntlet is thrown. Prepare for the fly by...

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hey DBAnnie, better hoist another sail, Your about to get a rudder full of the mighty raven. I'm catching up and if I pass you, you'll never catch me. Caw caw sayeth the raven...catch me nevermore...:laugh:

I just love it when the gauntlet is thrown. Prepare for the fly by...

Ahhh...okay my Mighty Raven!! Just make sure you don't "drop" anything when you fly over! :embarrest: lol

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Dreamy, as usual, well said, I continue to chart the SS, as with every entry, we are hoping for the bottom most point, Ha, that never seems to happen, and I get nervous when the market heads down, bail, and then miss the ride back up. However, daddy gots to eat to, and sinced I am retired, i need to be careful. I spent 28 years 7 months on the job, and have lost more money on this stupid TSP than I care to imagine. every single percentage is alot of moolah.....i am a chicken when it comes to putting it all out there, I usually go 50/50 anyway too, thanxs for all the insight, u are a doll.... Sky

Hello Sky..your very welcome! You might want to consider staying long with the volatility being as it is. Long term I still think market is good. Pick a good blend of market stocks and let it ride... that would be my move if you feel timing is off a bit right now. During that time, then you could use your strategy to see when you would have bought and sold to see how it would have played out real time and tweek that strategy until you feel very comfortable with it. That is basically what I was doing last year---except I was moving in and out as I learned on the fly. But with that and knowing that if I had executed on the selected days and had gone all it, knowing what the results would have been has given me a little better confidence to stick to use my strategy ... but executing is always so difficult realtime. I continually go off the strategy a bit. It is stressful and i can only imagine it is more so when your handling your retirement money. But this market looks good to me now as far as C and I---S fund is a different story.

I do use those weekly charts to make me feel better--to gain assurance that we are not yet in a downtrend, but of course there are always those unexpected flash crashes so I have been trying to study those to come up with a good technical indicator to be my safety net. The 10 daily EMA hitting and crossing below the 20 EMA seems to be the best one I have found yet. Right now, the S Fund is VERY SCARY because it has crossed over...two days ago. So I am watching daily and yes it could take a hit. But again thinking it would be short term (not years to recover), so i am taking a risk on S right now.

Today, looked at daily charts and I fund look like good buys now with C fund probably ready by Monday. S fund could be good but its risky...would like to see a little up action. I am thinking to wait until Monday as I understand that is typically a good buy day. But will see..... Take care and Best Wishes to you!

 

[ravensfan]

Ahhh...okay my Mighty Raven!! Just make sure you don't "drop" anything when you fly over! :embarrest: lol

What? Don't you have a poop deck on that ship?

 

[ravensfan]

What? Don't you have a poop deck on that ship?

Hey Annie...that extra sail is not working. I'm getting cloooooserrrr, just 27 spots behind you on the autotracker. Prepare yourself for an upclose and personal view of my tail feathers. Caw Caw Caw

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hey Annie...that extra sail is not working. I'm getting cloooooserrrr, just 27 spots behind you on the autotracker. Prepare yourself for an upclose and personal view of my tail feathers. Caw Caw Caw

Honey, I'm afraid I'm gonna have to put up my sails now!! Hope you have strong wings!

 

[ravensfan]

Honey, I'm afraid I'm gonna have to put up my sails now!! Hope you have strong wings!

Ok Annie here is what I will wager. A Raven Gnome. Be ahead of me on the last day of 2014 and he is yours. Now what will you wager?

View attachment 27877

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Thinking about moving more in...probably all 3 but heavier on S, then maybe some into C and a tad into I. Best wishes... I'm adding 50 into S. Final decision. New allo 75 s, 25 C

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Ok Annie here is what I will wager. A Raven Gnome. Be ahead of me on the last day of 2014 and he is yours. Now what will you wager?

hummm....I am thinking something in kind.. Since the Cowboys are my team, maybe some Cowboys memorabilia. I'll need to check out what they have and let you know! Do you think you could stomach a female Cowboys gnome???? No, not a cheerleader ....I think you'd probably be all for that!!!. Lol

 

[ravensfan]

hummm....I am thinking something in kind.. Since the Cowboys are my team, maybe some Cowboys memorabilia. I'll need to check out what they have and let you know! Do you think you could stomach a female Cowboys gnome???? No, not a cheerleader ....I think you'd probably be all for that!!!. Lol

You are very perceptive of the male ego...I would prefer a cheerleader, but if you must a gnome will have to suffice.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

You are very perceptive of the male ego...I would prefer a cheerleader, but if you must a gnome will have to suffice.

I'm just kiddin you! :toung: I looked at the cowboys cheerleader gnome and...it scared the heck out of me! It's a zombie!! And not pretty!! Here's a link... No other female gnomes that I found. But if you like it, I'm in.

Dallas Cowboys Zombie Cheerleader | eBay

So...there are some non-gnome memorabilia I can look for, but they are mainly pictures, calendars, etc.

I did find this, but not sure about it...too girly??? It's cute!
Charming Tails You're A Dream Boat Mouse New | eBay

So I'm looking at the Cowboys cheerleaders stuff!!

Ahh..found something...

http://www.nflshop.com/catalog/product/Dallas_Cowboys_Youth_Girls_16_Cheerleader_Plush_Doll/source/ak1944nfl-pla-856125?003=14180831&CS_010=856125&CAWELAID=1939641860&CAGPSPN=pla

http://www.amazon.com/Dallas-Cowboys-Cheerleaders-Swimsuit-Calendar/dp/1469313065

http://www.amazon.com/DALLAS-COWBOYS-CHEERLEADERS-SWIMSUIT-Calendar/dp/B00FVTFHF8/ref=pd_sim_sbs_b_3?ie=UTF8&refRID=16W7JXH7R8CXBSHCJT2C

Now, if you win this last item would be the 2015.

 

[ravensfan]

I'm just kiddin you! I looked at the cowboys cheerleader gnome and...it scared the heck out of me! It's a zombie!! And not pretty!! Here's a link

Dallas Cowboys Zombie Cheerleader | eBay

So...there are some non-gnome memorabilia I can look for, but they are mainly pictures, calendars, etc.

I did find this, but not sure about it...too girly??? It's cute!
Charming Tails You're A Dream Boat Mouse New | eBay

So I'm looking at the Cowboys cheerleaders stuff!!

No on the zombie cheerleader. Mouse was kinda cute though. I did the Ravens Gnome so if you win you would be reminded of who you won it from. Perhaps you should go in that direction. There's gotta be something out there that says Dreamboat Annie. Something to remind me who I took it from.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

No on the zombie cheerleader. Mouse was kinda cute though. I did the Ravens Gnome so if you win you would be reminded of who you won it from. Perhaps you should go in that direction. There's gotta be something out there that says Dreamboat Annie. Something to remind me who I took it from.

look at that post again! Added a few items at bottom.....calendars last a year n you throw them out so not sure about those but they are nice!! Maybe the doll..not sure ...still looking. Something to remind who you won it from....Hummm.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

look at that post again! Added a few items at bottom.....calendars last a year n you throw them out so not sure about those but they are nice!! Maybe the doll..not sure ...still looking. Something to remind who you won it from....Hummm.

if you look at extra links on that last post, and none of that tickles you, then I offer another option. A DreamboatAnnie custom sock monkey..Dallas Cowboy cheerleader, outfit with white boots and little jacket..skirt with fringe and dark brown hair (longer than shoulder length with curls) so it looks like me. But I'm thinking and looking!

 

[ravensfan]

if you look at extra links on that last post, and none of that tickles you, then I offer another option. A DreamboatAnnie custom sock monkey..Dallas Cowboy cheerleader, outfit with white boots and little jacket..skirt with fringe and dark brown hair (longer than shoulder length with curls) so it looks like me. But I'm thinking and looking!

The DreamboatAnnie custom sock monkey dressed as a Dallas Cowboy cheerleader sounds perfect. It will definately remind me of you. So now that the wagers have been accepted, it's time to hunt. May the odds always be in your favor. Whatcha gonna do when the mighty raven is running wild on you...:nuts: