DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

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Thanks Dreamboat, it would be neat to see your updated spreadsheet. was talking with another friend last night who is using this sheet also, he has two different TSP's and the one using this spreadsheet is up compared to other. As a matter of fact yesterday was his move to the S fund. will try and keep you posted on results as i make my moves. cheers and thanks

bucket
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
P.s. Glad to hear your sticking to strategy...I also am not seeing an entry point yet. Uggh. You know.. At the point that you exited on 12-31 was spot on perfect!! So market is not that much higher at this point and it will likely pull back to at least that level and likely down even lower to 985 since the pattern in S fund has been for it to come down to just slightly above the 50 day EMA before it charges significantly upward. So your doing well to wait patiently. That is what I am waiting for but I wonder if it will keep with that pattern?? Qualifier: Of course this is just my opinion and not financial advice.
Click to expand...

One more day like today (1/23) and I will have a buy signal for the C Fund. My 50 day SMA is currently at 1812.15, so if we hit that, I'm in, especially if my other indicators reinforce the buy signal. As for the S Fund, my 50 day is at 977.33. I would start getting interested at 985. With today's closing price, we are still to high.

Of course it might be prudent to wait and see what happens with the debt ceiling...7 Feb is the big day for that so we will just sit on the sideline and remain patient.

P.S. I know your team is not in it, and we won't even talk about Brady, but who do you like in the Superbowl?

Bye for now...ravensfan
 
ravensfan said:
One more day like today (1/23) and I will have a buy signal for the C Fund. My 50 day SMA is currently at 1812.15, so if we hit that, I'm in, especially if my other indicators reinforce the buy signal. As for the S Fund, my 50 day is at 977.33. I would start getting interested at 985. With today's closing price, we are still to high.

Of course it might be prudent to wait and see what happens with the debt ceiling...7 Feb is the big day for that so we will just sit on the sideline and remain patient.

P.S. I know your team is not in it, and we won't even talk about Brady, but who do you like in the Superbowl?

Bye for now...ravensfan
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Hi Ravensfan.. Well C fund (SPX) looks promising for an entry. The Bollinger Bands are contracted very tight and the close was at 1828...I think the 50 day EMA looks to be around 1808 or so. So looks like Monday might be day to get back in. DWCPF (S fund) is still too high even with loss today..still riding in the 10day EMA channel...while BBs look like they are going to start contracting.maybe another week and if that happens I'll wait for the debt ceiling stuff. There is always possibility that credit rating could be dropped again since the folks in a Congress do not look at all serious about reducing debt...that would be a whopper for market .hummm...

Oh yes..my team and favorite guy did not make it....too bad but Patriots just couldn't hold up, and I knew they probably would not win so I was not as disappointed. Wow...the SF49ers versus Seattle was really a good game. I thought Seattle was very aggressive and really good. I wanted the 49ers to win so that last minute was a real bummer. In any case, I've always liked the Broncos so will be hoping they and Manning win. :D. Take care!
 
konakathy said:
:toung: Broncos ?!!! I'm so disappointed. :D
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A Shout-out to KonaKathy for waving the Hawks' flag. :D Broncs are my 2nd favorite team, so I can't really lose in this SBowl (wish I could say the same for my TSP outlook :cool:).
My 2-bits on Brady & Luck... Brady Usurped my man Drew Bledsoe who had given so much & was hurt years ago, so now some of that karma is back to bite him & he misses out on this Bowl; similar with Andrew Luck bumping off Manning.
 
ahhh ... So many Seahawks fans out there! Maybe I need to check out the quarterbacks again to make my final decision on who to root for. ;) yes...I know !!...lol :D
 
Annie, i admire you so much! I'm 50c 50 s What would you do? I can't sleep. And I trust yor suggestions I hope you don't think I'm intrusive Thanks in advance. Lori
 
Lori,

If I may - go back to sleep. All you need to do is take some time to acquaint yourself with some old fashioned market history. All is well - this too shall pass. And one more thing if I may, always keep your contributions going toward your active funds - dollar cost averaging lower prices is a blessing. Your objective should be to acquire as many shares as possible while you are working. OK, I'm done.
 
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bazinga38 said:
Annie, i admire you so much! I'm 50c 50 s What would you do? I can't sleep. And I trust yor suggestions I hope you don't think I'm intrusive Thanks in advance. Lori
Click to expand...
Hi Lori, Thank you for the kind compliment. Just got on a bit ago and saw your message. Please know that I am not a financial adviser and have only been learning about market since May of last year. Lots of folks here have much more knowledge. But I am more than happy to share what I would do. Bottom line is that you should do what is best for you, and based on your tolerance for risk and how long you have until retirement.

My first inclination would be to stay in market until indicators show the market trend has reversed and has moved into a downtrend. I would assess market over the next few days and try to confirm what is happening and then take action. I will be looking at some charts and technical indicators this evening and will post more later tonight.

Take care and keep you head up! :)
 
Just want to share a few thoughts. I have been reviewing past large drops to see if there is a pattern or indicator that foretold flash crashes. I did limited work as described below.

I noticed large drops generally occurred when the MACD goes negative and the 10 day EMA drops below the 20 day EMA and price drops below midpoint of Bollinger bands (4 indicators all at once).

This happened on about August 25, 2008 and pretty much continued with that pattern until Sept 29,2008 when market suffered huge loss.

It happens again around July 28, 2011 just before the huge losses of August 2011.

I looked back at huge drop that happened in 1987, and these signs again occurred on October 10,1987 just a about a week before the massive drops!

Then I looked at 2013. Now this happened in mid-December but the price popped back up and got back above the BB mid- point within a few days. It also happened around June 10, 2013. with the drop starting around 6-17 until it fully bottomed on about June 24, 2013. The drop that occurred in April 2013 was a little different...the 10 day came within a hairs breathe of touching the 20 day EMA but within the month recovered and the days just after were positive prices that went above the BB midpoint. I'm convinced these are very powerful indicators and would like to look at each year going back a ways.

But all the drops eventually recover because we are in a very long term bull market spanning decades so if you stay in long enough you get it back but lose out on what you could have kept and reinvested when it hit bottom! If your close to retirement, massive drops can really mess you up for a few years! So I guess that is why most of us pay attention and are trying to avoid those drops.

So what do these indicators say now?

For the S fund (DWCPF), the MACD has crossed to negative and price is below the midpoint of BB. But the 10 day has NOT dropped below the 20 day. So I would wait a few days to see if it pops back up above the mid point. If it does not I would sell sometime late in the week...maybe wait until Fed reserve meets. Then when bottom looks like it has been reached and price is above the mid point and MACD is positive and the 10 day goes back up above 20 or you are confident using other indicators jump back in.

For the C fund (SPX), all 4 indicators have hit, but again would wait a few days to see if it pops back up and if not get out and watch for the bottom to get back in unless the weekly indicators show a down trend. I'm not seeing that and so still snorts like a Bull although the smell could be better! :sick:

I'm not sure anyone could tell with any certainty how much more it will drop or bounce back up. We are due for a correction this year and no one has a crystal ball to tell exactly when it will happen. Bottom line, it's a matter of how much one is willing to risk. Your personal risk tolerance is key! Please do NOT consider any of this as financial advice...just my personal thoughts and what I have observed while staring at these chart.

I viewed free charts at Stockcharts.com to see this. Set parameters to 10 and 20 daily EMA plus Bollinger bands. Stockcharts shows the mid point of BBs, but only two EMA lines. Plus MACD. You can set the time frames.

Here are charts from bigcharts...WEEKLY trend for past 5 years.

DWCPF - S fund tracks it

Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XX:DWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XX:DWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

SPX - C fund tracks it

S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com
 
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That sounded semi-positive... I think

Next week will definitely be a turning point in this... um, possible change in direction... Maybe that's why I sold everything in my trading accounts... :)
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
That sounded semi-positive... I think

Next week will definitely be a turning point in this... um, possible change in direction... Maybe that's why I sold everything in my trading accounts... :)
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Hi RMI, your right! The weekly chart for S fund shows still within the 10 day EMA channel with an upward trend--- that's good! However the SPX has dropped out of that weekly channel. Also, looking at daily charts all 4 indicators have hit on both SPX and DWCPF, which now shows distinct possibility of more downward prices.

I believe prices eventually go back up so if anyone plans to stay invested, then it might be best to ride it out but must be willing to take the larger hit IF it happens. If one really hates losing money short term or a person wants to time the market, they may watch for direction and pull out if it does not bounce back quickly within a few days... Then wait for the bottom (and hope to not exit before a big bounce) to re-enter and play. It all boils down to risk tolerance and strategy.

Some folks already bought back in, so if this was a short term drop, they are going to make a killing next week!! I'm waiting for positive price action pushing above the Bollinger band mid point before getting back in and would also get some profit but not as much. We 'll see how it goes... :rolleyes:
 
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"The high percentage of stocks that are trading over their long term 200 day moving average implies that the bull run for the S&P 500 will continue and that higher levels should be expected. The present level also suggests that any major corrections will likely not occur in Q1. As history has shown that it takes at least 3-4 months of a less than 50 percent reading before a substantial decline can begin." This ia a blind side to enjoy as a gift for accumulation of shares.
 
Birchtree said:
"The high percentage of stocks that are trading over their long term 200 day moving average implies that the bull run for the S&P 500 will continue and that higher levels should be expected. The present level also suggests that any major corrections will likely not occur in Q1. As history has shown that it takes at least 3-4 months of a less than 50 percent reading before a substantial decline can begin." This ia a blind side to enjoy as a gift for accumulation of shares.
Click to expand...
Hi Birchtree, So does than mean that the market index would need to be near or below the 100 day moving average for 3- 4 months before a substantial decline begins? Thanks for info! :)
 
I did look at 50 and 100 day SMA for a few years. In some cases, prices were below the 100 day SMA for a few months before the large drops, like those that happened in 2000, 2001, 2008 but not for drops in Oct. 1987 and Oct 1998. Also MACD did not always go below signal line until prices started a big drop. In other cases, drops happened and continued downward but then recovered in a month. Others took years to recover. So as far as I can tell nothing is full proof. Based on how high market is, and that there could me more downside due to news coming in from Asian markets, looks like more downside could occur...but no telling if this is short term or not. Maybe the Fed will help this week???
 
[
Hey Dreamie, What say thee with the SS getting near 25 on the S&P about now???? thoughts??? short bounce before the "big fall"?? always love your stuff, Sky



QUOTE=DreamboatAnnie;439852]Here are daily charts for past 6 months.
DWCPF
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XX:DWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XX:DWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

SPX
S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com[/QUOTE]
 
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