Dr Faustus's Account Talk

[DrFaustus]

25 mins to decision ... and the S-fund is in the green. So I'm gonna stick with it today.

 

[Hallatauer]

I'm split 50-50 S and C Funds for today, Monday, and letting it sit thru tomorrow. Depending on how things go between now and noon Tuesday will decide where I go for Wednesday. Earnings reports are coming in and as long as they are good, I'll stay where I am.

 

[crhuss]

Hey Dan, I like your thingking....and you are probably right. However, I think I agree that the market looks pretty bad over the long. Tomorrow is the meeting of the rate cut czars. I got burnt last time with only a 25 base point cut when we expected 50, and I lost a ton of $. So I am going with the safe penny in the G, and not taking the chance on being disappointed with a small rate cut. That way I will gain a little anyway. I hope your right!!! Then we both win. Good Luck.

 

[Hallatauer]

Thanks.. what I'm thinking today is that with last weeks .75 cut, they will only go another .25 at most, and that's what is expected. I wouldn't stay more than two or three days anyway before taking refuge.

But, as Dennis Miller used to say, "then again, I could be wrong".

 

[crhuss]

Hi Dr. F, Thanks for today!!!! I was too conservative and only made 1%....but hey....at least it's 1% in the right direction. I still think we are in for a drop when the Feds give us a 25 point interest cut...and stocks tank again. What happened to the F fund last time when the stocks tanked after the Feds only gave us a 25 point cut? Is it better to be in G or F when that happens? Sometimes F goes down along with the stocks...but there may have been other reasons why the F fund dropped. What do you think about the F fund for Wednesday?

 

[Hallatauer]

Well, I'm still C/S today. A 1% rise will put me in positive territory for the month. A good thing considering the horrible month it has been for equities. And the FRTIB wants me to stop managing my own money... wha?????

Presently I believe any rate cut tomorrow has all ready been built in to the market. I'm considering bailing out to the F Fund for the rest of the week and let the dust settle.

Also, I got my warning later yesterday... lots of ambiguous statements and threats Bunch of hypocrites first giving me the right to transfer my funds daily, and then threatening to take it away. They don't like being upstaged? They can't believe there are government workers out there who are smarter than they are? An insult to their Phd's?

"Freeeeeeeeedddddoooooooooooooooommmmmm!!!!!!!!!"

 

[DrFaustus]

I don't know about the F-fund. To be honest, the F-fund is still a bit of a mystery to me as I don't understand the bond market all that well.

So I'll switch back to G today, more based upon the sentiment of those who watch the Fed more closely than I. I remember back when Greenspan was the Fed chair, seemed like the market would tank everytime he opened his mouth. If he was speaking, it was a good time to get out.

 

[Hallatauer]

The F/bond Fund, from what I have seen, generally acts the opposite to the stock market and interest rates but, not always. <sigh> The G Fund buzz is a + $.01 tomorrow so at least you can put a little positive money in the bank if you go that way.

 

[DrFaustus]

Yeah, I've noticed that too .. but it doesn't always act that way. But what is in it, exactly? What kind of bonds?

I thought we'd get the G-penny today .. but tomorrow would be better for me

 

[crhuss]

Well, I jumped the gun again. (My wife tells me that all the time). I also thought we would get the G penny today. But tomorrow is just as well. Thought today stocks would drop after the small bounce yesterday. But they kept going up. Wish I either knew more or had more faith. Oh well. I was in Mexico today and read a t-shirt that said 'Be Patient. Growing wealth takes time!' I guess I really need more patients. This crazy market is giving me that. Glad you guys with patience made a few bucks today.

 

[DrFaustus]

If you can call chewing your fingernails up to your wrists patience, well then I've got a truckload!

 

[DrFaustus]

The F-fund reached a definite sell signal yesterday, going below the 10 DMA line for the first time in weeks. The C and S funds are in buy territory, but when you factor in the USM futures this morning and the unknown outcome of the Fed meeting today, now might not be a good time to buy. At any rate, I got out of the S fund yesterday and am sitting in G today, which is where I expect to reside for the remainder of the month.

 

[alevin]

The F-fund reached a definite sell signal yesterday, going below the 10 DMA line for the first time in weeks.

Hi Dr. F. When I look at AGG, prices dropped below 10DMA line on the 24th....so if I'd been following the 10DMA concept as a sole indicator with AGG, I'd have bailed F on the 24th. When you started moving in and out of F before AGG closing price dropped below 10DMA I started wondering how strictly you were following your own rule of thumb and/or whether you were looking at a different #set.

So my question is, are you running your own chart and DMA macros with actual F fund prices?

 

[Robo5555]

I think that we are going to retest the lows very soon.....b4 the end of the month.

 

[DrFaustus]

So my question is, are you running your own chart and DMA macros with actual F fund prices?

Yeah, I'm running my own chart with actual F fund prices. The F-fund TRACKS the AGG, it doesn't follow it exactly. However, it appears that I misspoke when I said the F fund had crossed the 10 DMA line for the first time in weeks. According to my chart, it crossed it a few days ago, went above and then just crossed it again. Here's the chart:

View attachment 3169

 

[alevin]

WoWW! That's quite the equation. You are the math wizard, I bow and say thank you. I do know the F and AGG aren't exactly the same, I have been hoping follows close enough that I didn't have to figure out how to run SMA with actual F#s myself. Will study this some more along with AGG curves. May have some followup questions but they will have to wait.

Got an all-day meeting today out at a tribal office so won't be able to make any IFTs today regardless what happens today so will just have to sit tight. Same situation yesterday. Will reassess tonight, tomorrow so I know what I need to do tomorrow, Friday when I have time to make a move again.

 

[DrFaustus]

WoWW! That's quite the equation. You are the math wizard, I bow and say thank you. I do know the F and AGG aren't exactly the same, I have been hoping follows close enough that I didn't have to figure out how to run SMA with actual F#s myself. Will study this some more along with AGG curves. May have some followup questions but they will have to wait.

Although I love to bask in praise as much as the next guy, I can't take credit for the equation. Excel has a cute "Trendline" feature you can add to your plots that Barney was kind enough to show me how to use.

I found out that you have to be careful if you are trying to plot the trendline using the equation with the printed coefficients. Excel rounds off the coefficients to whatever you specify, you often need many more decimal places to get the trend curve to look like what is plotted.

Also, I am becoming disillusioned with using the 4th degree polynomial on the 30 day chart ... I am much more enamored with the 6th degree polynomial on the 90 day chart. I would love to be able to plot the trendline on the 90-day chart on the 30 day chart but I haven't figured out a good way to do this yet.

 

[Hallatauer]

The F-fund reached a definite sell signal yesterday, going below the 10 DMA line for the first time in weeks. The C and S funds are in buy territory, but when you factor in the USM futures this morning and the unknown outcome of the Fed meeting today, now might not be a good time to buy. At any rate, I got out of the S fund yesterday and am sitting in G today, which is where I expect to reside for the remainder of the month.

I concur as I am in the G Fund today and staying put. I'll take my expected penny today and sit quietly. The Fed doesn't announce until 2pm so, let volatility reign... I'll sleep easy and play World of Warcraft tomorrow instead.

 

[kaitlinsnana]

My "bad girl" frequent trader letter came yesterday.

Three trades per month as of March 1st, no mention of retreats to G.

Gail

 

[qibovin]

My "bad girl" frequent trader letter came yesterday.

Three trades per month as of March 1st, no mention of retreats to G.

Gail

Do you really have until March 1 to "shape up"? My letter only gives me until February 1. That's definitely descrimination.:nuts: